Ten Thursday Thoughts: Bowman, Kane, McDavid, Milestones and More

Welcome to the NHL off-season, which for Edmonton Oilers, and their fans, will be the shortest in franchise history. The two biggest stories this summer will be focused on potential contract extensions for Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard and hiring a general manager. The latter will happen first according to CEO of hockey operations Jeff Jackson, and because Bouchard is an RFA, the Draisaitl extension likely will occur first between those two.

But there are some other things to ponder, like some scheduling questions, predicting another Connor McDavid milestone, if Raphael Lavoie is NHL-ready and wondering if the juice is worth the squeeze.

— That last line refers to the rumours that the Oilers might consider Stan Bowman for the GM vacancy. Bowman was hired as GM of the Chicago Blackhawks on July 14th, 2009. It was great timing for him as 11 months later the Blackhawks won their first Stanley Cup. Bowman had very little to do with that Championship. He did make a great trade that season sending Cam Barker to Minnesota for Nick Leddy and Kim Johnsson. Leddy was drafted in the first round in 2009 and was playing NCAA, while Johnsson played eight regular season games for the Blackhawks, but none in the playoffs.

He had more impact on the 2013 winning team as he acquired Johnny Oduya, Michal Handzus, and Michael Frolik in trades between 2011-2013, oversaw the drafting of Brandon Saad and Andrew Shaw and signed free agent Michal Rozsival.

For the 2015 team, he signed free agents Brad Richards and Kyle Cumiskey, acquired Kimmo Timonen, Antoine Vermette and Andrew Desjardins, re-acquired Kris Versteeg after trading him away after the 2010 Cup win and oversaw the drafting of Teuvo Teravainen and Joakim Nordstrom.

Bowman’s best work was trading away players who helped win the Cup like Dustin Byfuglien, Dave Bolland, Versteeg, Troy Brouwer and Brian Campbell when he had to give raises to Patrick Kane and Jonathon Toews.

Bowman was a good GM, but he was also the GM when Kyle Beach was sexually assaulted by then-video coach Brad Aldrich. And this past November a second player filed a lawsuit against the Blackhawks claiming they ignored his complaints that a seem employee sexually abused him during the 2009-10 season. The lawsuit accuses the team of negligence and intentional infliction of emotional distress among other allegations. It seeks more than $300,000 USD.

I’m a big believer in second chances, but I’m also a believer that there are consequences for your actions. Bowman and the Blackhawks clearly erred in how they handled the Aldrich situation. Not only in just letting him go but also in saying nothing when he was hired to work with young boys. He is a predator who looked for, and found victims.

He had two different accusations while he worked hockey camps in Miami, although neither resulted in charges, and then while volunteering as a coach for the Houghton High School team Aldrich was charged with sexually assaulting one of the players after a party. He pleaded guilty to fourth-degree criminal sexual assault and was sentenced to nine months in jail. 

Aldrich is a pedophile and a predator. Let’s be clear he is the worst person involved in this situation, but the Blackhawks’ silence led to him being able to prey on more victims. I don’t believe the Blackhawks organization willingly tried to hide what happened, I believe they weren’t educated enough on how to deal with it, Bowman included.

Bowman, Al MacIssac and Joel Quenneville were reinstated by the NHL earlier this week. They’ve been out of the NHL since October 2021. Earlier this year, Quenneville spoke openly on the Cam and Strick Podcast about the scandal, where he erred and what he’s learned. It is worth a listen. 

I don’t doubt they feel remorse. They erred, but they also weren’t the perpetrators. Aldrich is the scumbag who did the heinous actions.

My question isn’t whether they deserve a second chance or not. I believe they do, but not in Edmonton, and my question for the Edmonton Oilers and Jeff Jackson is: do you think the juice is worth the squeeze? Is Bowman that much better than any other candidate that you need to hire him?

Let’s be honest. The new GM, whoever it is, will inherit the best job in the NHL. The foundation of this team was constructed mainly by Ken Holland, with some quality draft picks under the watch of Peter Chiarelli in Evan Bouchard, Stuart Skinner and Ryan McLeod. I don’t give him any credit for drafting Connor McDavid. Any person on the planet could have made that pick, but the other three have been very good.

Jackson was the main decision maker in hiring Kris Knoblauch and Paul Coffey. Those moves were massive. He was involved in acquiring Adam Henrique, then signing him to an extension, signing Corey Perry, and re-signing him, while also signing Jeff Skinner, Viktor Arvidsson and re-signing Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown.

The new GM doesn’t have to rebuild or re-tool the organization like Holland did. Holland instilled a professionalism the organization had lacked for years. He treated people, regardless of their role or standing, with respect and he managed with humility. Of course, not every move he made worked out, but he had more hits than misses and the Oilers were one win away from hoisting the Cup.

Do the Oilers need Bowman that badly? Does he deserve to return to the NHL in arguably the best GM job in the NHL? Those are questions Jackson needs to answer, but considering the work he and his management team did earlier this week, I don’t believe the Oilers need a grizzled, veteran GM. I don’t see how the reward is worth the risk.

— What will the new GM need to do? Depending on the health of Evander Kane, he might have to make a trade to make sure the Oilers are cap-compliant before the season begins, but I guarantee the Oilers have already outlined the five or six possible scenarios involved in that. It’s not like there is a new idea no one has thought about. The Oilers could look at younger guys who are hungry for more opportunity like Shawn Horcoff in Detroit, and Mathieu Darche in Tampa Bay. Jackson also has internal options in Keith Gretzky, Bill Scott and Brad Holland. Jackson knows them very well having worked the past season with them.

— The Leon Draisaitl negotiation seems pretty straightforward. His cap hit will be in the $13m-$14m range. The organization will gladly sign him for eight years if he wants, but if he only wants four or five years, they will gladly take that as well. Jackson has been part of hundreds of contract negotiations as an agent, so this won’t be new for him. The only challenge that might arise is if Draisaitl doesn’t want to be here and they have to convince him. I think signing Skinner and Arvidsson shows Draisaitl how committed they are to winning and ensuring he has good players to play with. The new GM will be part of the discussion, but I don’t see them, regardless of who it is, as bringing something to the negotiation that will be a major help to the Oilers.

— The Bouchard negotiation is very different as he’s an RFA. He turns 25 in December and is coming off a record-breaking playoff where he set a new mark for assists by a defenseman with 26, and he became only the fourth defender to score 30+ points in a playoff year. There isn’t the same urgency as Draisaitl, because Bouchard is an RFA. Edmonton could qualify him next June, and I’m sure he’d file for arbitration, so then they’d have a deadline to get a deal done. I’d be shocked if they actually met with an arbitrator, as most players sign a contract before the arbitration process. Is there a risk in waiting until the end of the season? I don’t see how since it will be difficult for Bouchard to produce significantly more points than he did last season, and if he does, he’s still likely a $10m-$11m defender. I think the biggest factor in Bouchard’s negotiation will be how the new GM, along with Jackson, alter the roster to find room for the massive raise he will get. Draisaitl will also get a raise, but the salary cap is expected to go up $4-$5m next year and his contract will take most of it.

— Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway are RFAs with no arbitration rights. The Oilers would like two-year deals, while the players would prefer a one-year deal so next summer they have arbitration rights. The combined AAVs for next season will most likely come in between $2m-$2.3m. They should be excellent value contracts for the Oilers next year.

— The Oilers and Evander Kane’s camp are looking at what is best for him, and they will determine if that means surgery or just rest and rehab. Jackson mentioned Kane and his agent will be getting a second opinion from a doctor, which is wise. They might try rehab first and see if that solves the issue, and if it does great. If not, then he would require surgery and likely not be ready to start the season, but fans should realize surgery is always the last option. You can’t force a player to have surgery. It is their body, and they have the final say, as they should. Kane has battled injuries the past two seasons, and that has impacted his play. When healthy, he is an impact player, and a rare combination of skill, speed, scoring ability and toughness. Kane needs to get healthy, for himself and the team. I know he wants to keep playing after his current contract expires in two seasons, and if he does, he needs to get healthy, regardless of how long it takes.

— While battling through some nagging injuries Kane still scored 15 goals 5×5, which tied Draisaitl for fourth on the team. He still has value and can help the team. He just needs to get healthy.

— If the Oilers need to shed salary, Cody Ceci is an option. Despite how some claim he’s awful you should note his $3.25m cap hit ranks 110th among NHL defenders for this season. He was tied for 78th in points for D-men last year with 25 and he was 92nd in TOI/game at 20:01. He has one year remaining at $3.25m. I thought he was solid after being split up from Darnell Nurse from Game 5 of the Vancouver series through to the end of the playoffs. He’s also shown he can play great when the pressure is on. His performances in Game 7 were excellent. His outlet pass to Mattias Janmark against Florida in Game 7 was great. There would be teams interested, and I could see some teams who feel they won’t be in a playoff spot, acquire him and then plan to move him at the trade deadline. Edmonton would gladly keep him if they don’t need to shed salary. Paul Coffey values him a lot higher than the naysayers.

— Ryan McLeod is another player who gets social media fired up. Again, he has much more value than his detractors suggest. He’s only a $2.1m cap hit and a pending RFA. Yes, he isn’t overly physical, but he has many positive attributes. He’s an elite skater, he can transport the puck, he’s good on the penalty kill and he’s smart defensively. He also can play wing and centre. He would be easily moveable if the Oilers got in a situation where they had to clear money, but I don’t get the sense they are yearning to move him. They feel he has way more positive attributes than negative ones.

— The Oilers play 14 sets of back-to-back (BTB) games this year. When I posted that part of the schedule some readers asked how many times the Oilers will play a team who is playing the backend of their own back-to-back. The answer is 13, however, there are five times where Edmonton and their opponent face each other when both are on the second half of a BTB.

Chicago plays in Winnipeg on October 11th, and then in Edmonton on the 12th.

Calgary hosts Philadelphia on October 12th and is in Edmonton on the 13th. Both the Oilers and Flames will be playing back-to-back on the 13th. Detroit is in Buffalo on October 26th, and then home to the Oilers on the 27th.

Colorado is in Dallas on November 29th, and then home to Edmonton on the 30th. The Oilers are in Utah on the 29th, so both them and the Avs will play BTB.

Ottawa is in Vancouver on December 21st and then in Edmonton on the 22nd. Edmonton hosts San Jose on the 21st, so OTT and EDM will be on the second half of BTB games.
Anaheim hosts Philadelphia on December 28th and then the Oilers on the 29th. Edmonton is in LA on the 28th, so the Oilers and Ducks will both be playing BTB.
Utah is in Seattle on December 30th and then hosts the Oilers on December 31st.

Anaheim is in Winnipeg on January 2nd and in Edmonton on January 3rd.
Chicago is in Detroit on January 10th, and then hosts the Oilers on January 11th.

Colorado is in Calgary on February 6th and plays in Edmonton on February 7th.
Washington plays in Pittsburgh on February 22nd and then hosts the Oilers on the 23rd. Edmonton is in Philadelphia on the 22nd, so both them and WSH will be playing BTB.

The New York Rangers are in Columbus on March 15th and then host the Oilers on the 16th.
Winnipeg is in Chicago on April 12th, and then hosts the Oilers on April 13th.

— McDavid is 18 points shy of 1000 points. He has a chance to pass Mike Bossy for the third-fewest games played to reach 1000 points. Wayne Gretzky did it in 424 games, Mario Lemieux needed 513 and Mike Bossy scored his 1000th point in his 656th game. McDavid has played 645 games. He needs 18 points in 11 games (1.63 pts/game) to tie Bossy and 18 in 10 games to beat him. McDavid produced 22 points in 10 games to start the 2021-22 season and had 22 points in 10 games out of the gate in 2022-23. Last season, he was injured in the fifth game, and when he returned for the Heritage Classic, he wasn’t fully healthy. Scoring 18 points in the first 10 games is very doable for McDavid.

The Oilers open up with four home games vs. Winnipeg, Chicago, Calgary and Philadelphia. Then they are on the road in Nashville and Dallas. They return home to play Carolina and Pittsburgh before road games in Detroit and Columbus. Only four of their first six games are against teams who made the playoffs last season.

I’ll guess he reaches point 1000 in his eighth game of the season, in Edmonton against Pittsburgh.

What say you?