The Guessing Game: TSN’s Oilers Points Projections

Scott Cullen at TSN.ca has listed his projections for the top 250 points-getters for the 2010-11 NHL this season. He has 10 members of the Edmonton Oilers listed in that group.

1. Alexander Ovechkin 54-54-108

2. Sidney Crosby 43-60-103

3. Henrik Sedin 26-74-100

37. Ales Hemsky 21-44-65

67. Dustin Penner 26-32-58

72. Taylor Hall 26-31-57

100. Sam Gagner 20-32-52

101. Jordan Eberle 21-31-52

180. Andrew Cogliano 17-25-42

215. Ryan Whitney 9-29-38

225. Magnus Paajarvi 16-21-37

230. Kurtis Foster 7-29-36

244. Gilbert Brule 16-18-34

I’m not sure how Cullen came up with his projections, especially for rookies like Hall, Eberle and Paajarvi, so I’m not going to criticize his method of guessing, but a few things stand out for me as being off.

— If there’s anybody out there who wants to bet that Hall will outscore Brule by 23 points this season, I’d be more than willing to cover that wager with, say, $100. Cullen, by the way, has Brule playing just 67 games, so he’s obviously factoring in his injury history.

— When I stare into my trusty old peanut butter jar, which helps me predict future events (although it seems old Skippy f*cked me on Jeff Deslauriers), I don’t see Hall outscoring Paajarvi by 20 points, either. I see Paajarvi neck-and-neck with Hall, both in the 45-50 point range. Back on Aug. 2, Skippy pegged Hall at 23-28-51 in a guesstimate I made in response to Lowetide’s reasonable expectations item listing Hall at 40 points.

— Skippy tells me Cullen has Gagner projected just a touch low. If Gagner gets as much first-line time and power-play minutes as I think he will under Tom Renney, I see him in the 55-60 range, assuming he plays something close to a full 82 games, as opposed to the 68 of last season.

— I don’t see Shawn Horcoff in Cullen’s listings and that’s an oversight. I figure Horcoff slotting in behind Hemsky, Penner and Gagner in team scoring. My best guess is 50-55 points.

— No Tom Gilbert? Hmm.

I haven’t bounced this off any of the other writers here, so I’m being a bit presumptuous in suggesting it, but I think it would be great fun to have a guess-off as far as Oilers points projections for 2010-11 go. I’m thinking of something along the lines of goals-assists-points for Edmonton’s top-nine forwards and top-four D-men.

Simple format: Pick your top nine and top four. Prognosticators start with zero points and lose a point for every point they are off on their top 13 picks. If you take Hemsky for 65 points and he gets 68, you’re minus-3. If he gets 61, you’re minus-4 etc. etc. Repeat for each player. Add them up and closest to zero wins.

Any manner of guesswork is allowed: projecting based on tea leaves, past performance, old Skippy, stolen from the HN, whatever. We could also had a twist by pitting guys who lean a bit heavier on advanced stats, Lowetide and Willis, against, say, Gregor and I in a combined team total and see how it turns out. Might be fun,