The #MakeItFive Draft Lottery Odds

6 years ago

With the Oilers missing the playoffs again we’re getting closer to our version of the Stanley Cup which is, of course, the NHL Draft Lottery.

When the Oilers lucked out and won the right to draft Connor McDavid back in April of 2015, I was certain that we would never be in this position again. The strange thing, of course, is that this is the second time in three McYears that the Oilers have had a chance at winning the ultimate lottery prize. In year one, Connor spent half of the year on the shelf with a broken collarbone which made being in lottery contention a little bit more understandable, but this year, the disappointment was real as almost everyone outside of a few guys underperformed and the Oilers struggled as a result.

That said, if you’re going to miss the playoffs then you’d better win the lottery. And just imagine how funny it would be if the Oilers somehow managed to pull out a fifth lottery win since 2010. The hockey world would burn, Twitter would implode, other fans would winge endlessly and I wouldn’t be able to stop laughing for days on end. While some people might say that the Oilers don’t deserve to win another lottery, I will respectfully call those people idiots because pretending that anyone “deserves” to win a lottery is ridiculous. Landing atop of the Draft board is a game of chance and the Oilers have more horseshoes up their asses than anyone in history.

As far as I see it, the Draft Lottery is our world and everyone else is just living in it.

THE ODDS

Numbers courtesy of Chris Johnston (@reporterchris)

According to this here graphic, the Oilers have the ninth-best odds of winning the Draft Lottery and picking first overall, which may not seem like a great chance but that hasn’t exactly stopped us before. Back in 2015, the Oilers only had an 11.5% chance of winning the McDavid lottery and when you consider that Connor is likely double the player that Rasmus Dhalin is then you start to feel pretty good about us only having a 5% chance at that first overall pick. Am I reaching? I’m probably reaching. But you wouldn’t bet against the Oilers winning, would you?

For the overall lottery odds, Micah Blake McCurdy put together an easy to follow graphic that shows every team’s chances of winning the three separate lotteries. Right now, the Oilers are slotted in 23rd place which leaves them in the middle of the pack in terms of lottery odds, but more enough to make something happen. As you can see, their chances increase slightly to win the second and third draws but we’ll still need some luck if we’re going to pull this thing off.

If the Oilers can’t pull out a win in any of the three lotteries, they will select, at best, ninth overall and, at worst, 12th overall but three teams with worse odds than them would have to win first. The reality is that when the Draft order is determined on April 28th, the Oilers will likely pick around 9-10-11 which will still give them the opportunity to draft an interesting prospect. It may not necessarily be Dahlin but there are still some intriguing young hockey players that could end up sporting an Oilers jersey come June.

WHO WOULD IT BE?

After looking various prospect rankings and scouring the Internet to find out what people smarter than me are thinking, the most common names I could find that ranked in the 7-12 slots are (in no particular order):

Quinn Hughes – (USA – 5’10” – Left-shot defenceman – University of Michigan Wolverines )

Draft Year: 37GP – 29 points (5G, 24A)

ISS: Supremely gifted skater & puck handler who has the ability to control a game from the back end.

Joe Veleno – (Canada – 6’1″ – Left-shot centreman – Saint John Sea Dogs)

Draft Year: 64GP – 79 points (22G, 57A)

Curtis Joe (Elite Prospects): There is so much to like about Joe Veleno. He’s a hard-nosed workhorse that makes the players around him better. The fleet-footed center is unselfish and will primarily look to make a play at top speed; however, when the chance arises to put it in the pot himself, he will capitalize. He sees the ice well and is rarely caught out of position. His defensive game is refined and he actively pursues puck control.

Joe Farabee – (USA – 5’11” – Left-shot winger – US National U18 Team)

Draft Year: 54GP – 64 points (27G, 37A)

ISS: Dangerous two-way forward who uses his legs and IQ to make something happen most shifts.

Noah Dobson – (Canada – 6’3″ – Right-shot defenceman – Acadie-Bathurst Titan)

Draft Year: 67GP – 69 points (17G, 52A)

Curtis Joe (Elite Prospects): Rock solid defensively, his strong positioning severely limits time and space for the opposition. All-in-all, a well-rounded, reliable, and consistent defenceman that can log a lot of ice time and provide his team with a stable presence on the back end.

Oliver Wahlstrom – (USA/Sweden – 6’1″ – Right-shot centreman – US National U18 Team)

Draft Year: 54GP – 83 points (40G, 43A)

ISS: Natural goal scorer – A threat whenever he’s on the ice. Great anticipation and hockey sense.

Ty Smith – (Canada – 5’11” – Left-shot defenceman – Spokane Chiefs)

Draft Year: 69GP – 73 points (14G, 59A)

ISS: Elite skating defender whose upside is not far off from the top defenders in the 2018 class.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi – (Finland – 6’2″ – Left-shot centreman – Assat (Liiga))

Draft Year: 57GP – 29 points (10G, 19A)

Elite Prospects: A smart forward with a dangerous shot, Kotkaniemi possesses a high hockey IQ and determination with the skills to back it up. Positions himself well and often seems to be a step ahead of plays. Stickhandling and creativity allow him to split professional defences as a teenager. Decent size and frame, yet a very capable skater.

Isac Lundestrom – (Sweden – Left-shot centreman – Luleå HF)

Draft Year: 42GP – 15 points (6G, 9A)

Jeff Marek (Sportsnet): As one scout told me “he’s the Swedish Patrice Bergeron.” A lofty compliment, but the comparisons are there.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Now that you’ve seen the odds and some of the options that could be available in the mid-first round, I’m curious to know who you think the Oilers should pick and what you think will happen. Admittedly, I don’t know a whole lot about any of these prospects so I’ll be relying on other people to tell me what to think. For those of you that are Draft aficionados, feel free to drop your pearls of wisdom in the comments section and teach the rest of us a little something about what to expect from this year’s class. What say you, Nation?

Nation Takes

Oilers Talk