The Oilers In Seven — part four: Things balancing out?
By Zach Laing
4 years agoHello, hello, hello.
Welcome back to part four of my series Oilers In Seven where we take a look at the Oilers in, well, seven-game sets.
If you’re new to the series, welcome! For those reading once again, welcome! This series is here to give you a better understanding of the Oilers on a smaller scale.
Feedback is welcome in the comments, or on Twitter.
The Numbers
Games 1-7: 6-1, .857 points %
Games 8-15: 4-3-1, .563
Games 16-22: 3-2-2, .571
Games 23-29: 4-3, 571
Games 8-15: 4-3-1, .563
Games 16-22: 3-2-2, .571
Games 23-29: 4-3, 571
Season record: 17-9-3, 5th in the NHL, .638 points %
Games 1-7:
PP% – 45.5, 1st overall.
PK% – 88.5, 5th.
PP% – 45.5, 1st overall.
PK% – 88.5, 5th.
Games 8-15:
PP% — 9.5, 26th overall.
PK% — 81.8, 18th.
PP% — 9.5, 26th overall.
PK% — 81.8, 18th.
Games 16-22:
PP% — 39.1, 2nd overall.
PK% — 92.0, 3rd.
PP% — 39.1, 2nd overall.
PK% — 92.0, 3rd.
Games 23-29:
PP% — 35.7, 4th overall.
PK% — 85.0, 10th.
PP% — 35.7, 4th overall.
PK% — 85.0, 10th.
Season totals:
PP% — 32.5, 1st overall.
PK% — 87.1, 2nd.
PP% — 32.5, 1st overall.
PK% — 87.1, 2nd.
Even Strength
| STAT | RATE G1-7 + LEAGUE RANK | RATE G8-15 + LEAGUE RANK | RATE G16-22 + LEAGUE RANK | RATE G23-29 + LEAGUE RANK | SEASON TOTALS |
| CF% | 44.02 – 30TH | 50.13 — 16TH | 48.97 — 18TH | 47.45 — 23RD | 47.78 — 25TH |
| GF% | 54.55 – 10TH | 50.00 — 17TH | 48.65 — 18TH | 44.12 — 24TH | 49.23 — 19TH |
| XGF% | 41.96 – 30TH | 53.25 — 10TH | 52.79 — 8TH | 48.58 — 20TH | 49.36 — 21ST |
| GF/60 | 3.1 — 9TH | 1.89 — 29TH | 3.19 — 10TH | 2.5 — 15TH | 2.63 — 18TH |
| GA/60 | 2.58 — 11TH | 1.89 — 4TH | 3.36 — 25TH | 3.16 — 24TH | 2.71 — 14TH |
| TEAM SH% | 12.95 – 3RD | 6.25 — 28TH | 10.71 — 9TH | 8.57 — 14TH | 9.28 — 12TH |
| TEAM SV% | .9167 – 11TH | 93.23 — 4TH | 88.82 — 23RD | 90.59 — 23RD | 91.13 — 14TH |
| PDO | 1.046 – 3RD | 99.5 — 20TH | 99.5 — 16TH | 99.2 — 19TH | 100.4 — 15TH |
All Situations
| STAT | RATE G1-7 + LEAGUE RANK | RATE G8-15 + LEAGUE RANK | RATE G16-22 + LEAGUE RANK | RATE G23-29 + LEAGUE RANK | SEASON TOTALS |
| CF% | 43.96 — 30TH | 50.56 — 17TH | 49.23 — 19TH | 45.96 — 25TH | 47.55 — 26TH |
| GF% | 59.57 — 5TH | 45.45 — 23RD | 54.00 — 9TH | 45.24 — 24TH | 51.74 — 13TH |
| XGF% | 40.50 — 30TH | 52.59 — 12TH | 50.49 — 14TH | 47.41 — 24TH | 47.88 — 25TH |
| GF/60 | 3.95 — 3RD | 1.84 — 30TH | 3.83 — 5TH | 2.68 — 16TH | 3.03 — 14TH |
| GA/60 | 2.68 — 11TH | 2.21 — 5TH | 3.26 — 19TH | 3.25 — 24TH | 2.83 — 11TH |
| TEAM SH% | 15.64 — 1ST | 6.07 — 29TH | 12.80 — 4TH | 9.45 — 17TH | 10.62 — 6TH |
| TEAM SV% | .9177 — 9TH | 92.50 — 4TH | 88.78 — 22ND | 90.50 — 21ST | 90.96 — 11TH |
| PDO | 1.074 — 1ST | 0.986 — 23RD | 101.6 — 10TH | 99.9 — 19TH | 101.6 —8TH |
Stats via Natural Stat Trick, glossary with definitions here.
Player Stats
Stats via Hockey Reference
What it all means
For the fourth-set this season, the Edmonton Oilers have gone above .500 in their seven-game sets and it shows the team is trending in the right direction. Special teams continue to carry the club through the last set of games with a fourth-ranked powerplay and 10th ranked penalty kill and are a big reason why the team is doing so well.
And I think the team is beginning to balance itself out. Edmonton continues to get crushed in the possession game nearly night in and night out. Only one set of games, the team’s second, saw them average above 50 CF%.
The organization as a whole has always seemed to struggle in the possession game and this year is no different. Team PDO of 101.6 is still a little bit high, but we’ve seen Edmonton’s save percentage fall from .921 in the first 15 games, to .896 over the last 14 equating for the drop.
The good news out of it: the team save percentage of .9096 ranks 11th in the league. If the combination of Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith can keep that up, it’s certainly going to help the Oilers’ chances of making the playoffs.
Another thing that will help their chance at the playoffs, their 11th ranked GA/60 rank. Despite struggling in the last 14 games in allowing goals against per hour, the team has still managed to score lots largely in thanks to the power-play operating at such a great clip.
As things continue on this season, I think these analytics are largely what we’re going to see from the Oilers. They appear to be a group that’s largely middle of the pack, and still may be overachieving.
The good news? Edmonton has some serious points in the bank right now. If the club were to go .500 the rest of the way, they would end the year with 90 points clean. Last year 90 points got Colorado into the WC2 position in the West.
As it stands, the team is on pace for 106 points based off their points percentage alone. For the sake of comparison once again, that would’ve put Edmonton one point behind Calgary for the Pacific title.
On Twitter: @zjlaing
Recent articles from Zach Laing
