Thursday Thoughts: Line Combos

7 years ago

We are two weeks away from training camps. Medicals will occur on September 22nd, and every NHL team will hit the ice on Friday, September 23rd. Preseason action will begin on the 25th with Columbus and St.Louis playing two split squad games, and the Oilers, along with 18 other teams, get going on Monday the 26th.

Line combinations will be a hot topic, and they already are within Oilersnation. I believe the top line is settled, while the other lines will depend on Mike Richards signing a PTO, and whether Todd McLellan wants to play Leon Draisaitl on the wing or at centre.

**Let me preface this by saying I’m well aware line combos will switch often during the year due to injury, production and wins/losses.***

The Oilers must have a good start. McLellan knows it, and the best combination to ensure he gets some goals is playing Milan Lucic and Jordan Eberle alongside Connor McDavid. They might not play all season together, but I expect them to start the year as a trio.

McDavid is their best player, Eberle is their best shooter and Lucic is their most productive left winger. He also has experience playing with top centres much of his career. They will produce despite facing the opposition’s top lines.

The last statement is the number one reason you don’t start Nail Yakupov with McDavid. He has no long-term track record of producing against top opposition, and more importantly for his development, he’ll have a better chance of success playing softer minutes on line two or three. It is actually beneficial for him to play there than alongside McDavid.

Yakupov’s most productive stretch in the past three seasons was the final 28 games of 2014/2015 when he produced nine goals and 20 points. He played with Derek Roy on the third line. He flourished against lesser competition. Why not start him in a role where he was the most effective?

If his best attribute is scoring goals then put him in spot where he is the main guy on the line. He had nine goals during that stretch with Roy. He only had eight goals last season.

The suggestion that balancing the lines is the way to go is misguided in my eyes, because outside of McDavid the Oilers do not have another proven driver. Please don’t use the Penguins as an example. Yes, McDavid compares to a young Sidney Crosby, but there is no Evgeni Malkin or Phil Kessel in Edmonton.

Over the last five seasons Crosby (second), Malkin (seventh) and Kessel (ninth) have been among the top-ten point producers in the NHL. They are elite scorers and produce points regardless of who they play with. Eberle has been quite good — 24th in the same five year span — while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the next highest, sitting 80th. Penguins’ D-man Kris Letang was 79th. If you are suggesting the Oilers mirror the Penguins, you are grossly underrating how good Malkin and Kessel are.

The Penguins are the defending Cup champions, while the Oilers have missed the playoffs for 10 consecutive seasons and finished 28th last year. No one should compare them to the Penguins. They do not have the same high-end skill as the Penguins. Crosby, Malkin and Kessel could all lead a line and produce. It was a luxury, but remember during the regular season Kessel played the most minutes with Malkin. It was only late in the season and playoffs when they had their own line.

If you argue it will help the OIlers in the future to have three balanced lines, I can see merit in that argument, but to start the season they simply do not have the horses to do it. It is much more likely you will see McLellan load up his top two lines like he did in San Jose.

The Oilers desperately need a great start, and the Lucic-McDavid-Eberle trio provides McLellan with the best opportunity to score. Winning trumps everything and I don’t understand the belief about evening out the lines. That option was removed when Taylor Hall was traded, because he is a driver.

Now they will have a more balanced defence, which is hugely important, but look for McLellan to build two scoring lines. That’s why it is very possible Draisaitl could move to the right wing alongside RNH and either Benoit Pouliot or Patrick Maroon.

I’d argue there is a better chance we see a different left winger with McDavid instead of a RW other than Eberle. Maroon had a great 16 games in Edmonton while Benoit Pouliot was very productive early in the season as well. I still think Lucic starts beside McDavid, but I could see a switch on McDavid’s left wing before I see a change on the right side, because the scoring gap between Lucic and Pouliot/Maroon is smaller than Eberle and Yakupov, Zack Kassian or Jesse Puljujarvi right now. The Oilers hope one of those three close the gap during the season, but today the gap is too big for McLellan to play anyone other than Eberle with McDavid.

THIRD LINE CENTRE

The Oilers have offered Mike Richards a PTO, but he’s had offers from other teams as well and he’s mulling them over. If Richards comes to Edmonton and earns a contract, the chance of Draisaitl moving to the RW increases. Even if Richards doesn’t end up on the roster, I still think you will see McLellan experiment with a Draisaitl/RNH combination.

If they play well, then one of Anton Lander, Jujhar Khaira or Drake Caggiula will have a great chance to start as the third line centre. I expect Marc Letestu to play with Matt Hendricks for some checking matchups, but Letestu could also slide up if necessary.

PARTING SHOTS

The idea of three scoring lines is more of a pipe dream than reality. Yes, the Penguins had it for a brief time, but they also had three elite
scorers. Did any team in the west have three scoring lines last year?
Of the eight playoff teams in the west here is how many 40-point forwards they had.
6- Minnesota with only two with more than 44 points.
5- San Jose and two had more than 48 points.
4- Anaheim, LA, Chicago, St.Louis and Dallas
3- Nashville
Three scoring lines does not happen. The Oilers need to have two productive scoring lines and then hope the third line can chip in.
If you want to spread the offence around, put Lucic with RNH and Draisaitl and move Pouliot or Maroon with McDavid and Eberle to start.
The other main factor is Yakupov is expecting to start on the third line and he’s looking at it as a positive. McLellan asked him to work on a few specific things this summer and according to McLellan he’s been happy with Yakupov’s progress. I believe you will see McLellan put Yakupov in situations where he will have more success, easier opponents, and see him produce there and on the PP.
Peter Chiarelli acquired Adam Larsson because he wanted two solid pairs, and he gave up a very good player to do it. What would you say if McLellan started the season with Larsson and Darnell Nurse and Klefbom with Brandon Davidson? Most would ask why is he doing that. Make a strong pair. Do you balance your defence or find two strong pairs? It is the same philosophy with forwards.

Versteeg has experience. He’s played in 555 regular season games and 89 playoff games and has been part of two Cup Winning teams. More competition is good, but it also would give them more flexibility and the option to start Jesse Puljujarvi in the AHL. Adjusting to the smaller ice surface is a big challenge for many European players, especially 18 year olds, so why not have a veteran back up plan on the RW? He is likely looking for an actual contract, but if he can’t find one I’d at least make him a PTO offer and see what he says.

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Thursday Thoughts: Line Combos

THIRD LINE CENTRE

PARTING SHOTS

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