Undervaluing The Pick
7 years ago
I’m ready to trade it. I don’t want it. I want it to be a
defenseman who can play in the NHL…yesterday. The fourth overall pick in the
2016 draft belongs to Edmonton and I couldn’t make it belong to someone else
fast enough. But, am I undervaluing that pick? Have Oiler fans so used to drafting
at the top of the order that we now have unrealistically low opinions of the
riff raff taken in that second grouping of players?
defenseman who can play in the NHL…yesterday. The fourth overall pick in the
2016 draft belongs to Edmonton and I couldn’t make it belong to someone else
fast enough. But, am I undervaluing that pick? Have Oiler fans so used to drafting
at the top of the order that we now have unrealistically low opinions of the
riff raff taken in that second grouping of players?
This is, effectively, what Reid Wilkins of 630 CHED asked me
the other day while I was on his show with Woodguy. The discussion about the
pick is really all over the place. Edmonton has so many different options
available to them. Chiarelli already said, just hours after the lottery was
finished, that he had four or five teams calling him about the pick. The number
of different scenarios that could play out on draft day are really almost
infinite.
the other day while I was on his show with Woodguy. The discussion about the
pick is really all over the place. Edmonton has so many different options
available to them. Chiarelli already said, just hours after the lottery was
finished, that he had four or five teams calling him about the pick. The number
of different scenarios that could play out on draft day are really almost
infinite.
One thing we can count on, the Oilers GM will have his
actuarial tables out trying to determine exactly what kind of value the other
picks and players that other teams propose in exchange for that pick are really
worth. You see it in every draft, GMs and their assistants pull out that sheet
that tells them whether it makes sense to trade down X spots to gain Y and Z
picks in return. Peter Chiarelli and gang are going to know those tables inside
and out before June 24th, that can be guaranteed.
actuarial tables out trying to determine exactly what kind of value the other
picks and players that other teams propose in exchange for that pick are really
worth. You see it in every draft, GMs and their assistants pull out that sheet
that tells them whether it makes sense to trade down X spots to gain Y and Z
picks in return. Peter Chiarelli and gang are going to know those tables inside
and out before June 24th, that can be guaranteed.
But, are Oiler fans really undervaluing that pick? Yeah, it’s
entirely possible we are.
entirely possible we are.
After drafting 1,1,1,7,3,1 in consecutive drafts, there is a
very good chance that we aren’t giving the value of the player to be taken and
the pick itself its proper due.
very good chance that we aren’t giving the value of the player to be taken and
the pick itself its proper due.
It’s absolutely true that the last time the fourth overall
pick was traded, the return was Ruslan Fedotenko (coming off a measly 26 point
season) and two second round picks. It was also the 2002 draft, which wasn’t a
particularly strong draft. It was also from a time before players on ELCs
mattered immensely to the success of NHL teams.
pick was traded, the return was Ruslan Fedotenko (coming off a measly 26 point
season) and two second round picks. It was also the 2002 draft, which wasn’t a
particularly strong draft. It was also from a time before players on ELCs
mattered immensely to the success of NHL teams.
Since the advent of the salary cap and lower ages of
unrestricted free agency, the pick has never been traded by the team that owns
it. Players in the four-spot have been moved, but not the pick itself. It has
value, immense value.
unrestricted free agency, the pick has never been traded by the team that owns
it. Players in the four-spot have been moved, but not the pick itself. It has
value, immense value.
The fourth overall pick has yielded these players over the
last 10 years:
last 10 years:
2015 – Mitch Marner
2014 – Sam Bennett
2013 – Seth Jones
2012 – Griffin Reinhart
2011 – Adam Larsson
2010 – Ryan Johansen
2009 – Evander Kane
2008 – Alex Pietrangelo
2007 – Thomas Hickey
2006 – Nicklas Backstrom
Ten years of fourth overalls has net various teams five
forwards and five defensemen. Just giving this brief history of picks a quick
glance, maybe it would be prudent to take a forward at this position in the
draft over a defenseman. Every single forward taken in the last decade at this
spot is (or is tracking) to be at least a quality top 6 forward and in some cases
became impact offensive performers. Pietrangelo leads the charge of blueliners
taken here, but there are some serious stragglers (sadly the Oilers went after
that guy at the last draft).
forwards and five defensemen. Just giving this brief history of picks a quick
glance, maybe it would be prudent to take a forward at this position in the
draft over a defenseman. Every single forward taken in the last decade at this
spot is (or is tracking) to be at least a quality top 6 forward and in some cases
became impact offensive performers. Pietrangelo leads the charge of blueliners
taken here, but there are some serious stragglers (sadly the Oilers went after
that guy at the last draft).
The bias towards forwards at the top of the draft is real,
and the player it seems most likely to be taken with Edmonton’s pick is winger
Matthew Tkachuk (of THOSE Tkachuks). The kid scored 30-77-107 in 57 regular
season games with the Knights this year. He’s not bad.
and the player it seems most likely to be taken with Edmonton’s pick is winger
Matthew Tkachuk (of THOSE Tkachuks). The kid scored 30-77-107 in 57 regular
season games with the Knights this year. He’s not bad.
He has hockey flowing through his veins, he plays on a great
team, and he’s already a 6’1”, 200 pound power forward with soft hands. There’s
a reason Chiarelli’s phone is ringing off the hook. This kid will be an
expansion draft exempt, high-end prospect who plays for a great producer of NHL
players and will also be a priority for the American National team.
team, and he’s already a 6’1”, 200 pound power forward with soft hands. There’s
a reason Chiarelli’s phone is ringing off the hook. This kid will be an
expansion draft exempt, high-end prospect who plays for a great producer of NHL
players and will also be a priority for the American National team.
So, when Edmonton goes about the process of trading that
pick and consequently the opportunity to draft the best draft eligible player
in the CHL, let’s not undersell the value the Oilers will need to get back in
return.
pick and consequently the opportunity to draft the best draft eligible player
in the CHL, let’s not undersell the value the Oilers will need to get back in
return.
Ruslan Fedotenko and some magic beans aren’t going to cut
it. If Edmonton does move that pick then the return has to be much more
significant than that, because the odds of that pick turning into a quality
forward happen to be pretty damn high. If Edmonton can’t get the player they
want, they can’t pull a Reinhart and take the next best thing. They would be
better off drafting a Tkachuk and monitoring his value as he continues to
develop.
it. If Edmonton does move that pick then the return has to be much more
significant than that, because the odds of that pick turning into a quality
forward happen to be pretty damn high. If Edmonton can’t get the player they
want, they can’t pull a Reinhart and take the next best thing. They would be
better off drafting a Tkachuk and monitoring his value as he continues to
develop.
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