What can the Edmonton Oilers afford to do at the deadline?

I’m sure Oilers fans have been hearing about their salary cap restraints all season, but it’s getting down to crunch time and people want to know what the team can do.

A little background on myself before I jump into the Oilers details, my name is Earl, and I cover Toronto over at The Leafs Nation. I recently wrote about the Leafs’ cap situation and the difference between LTIR and accrued salary. Cam Lewis reached out to see if we could do something similar for Edmonton, and here we are!

The first question is to whether or not the Oilers should be buyers, based on Canadian division standings that is an easy yes.

The four playoff teams are nearly locked in at this point, and a deadline acquisition could help the Oilers get home-ice advantage. From an outside perspective even with @Oscar Klefbom and @Slater Koekkoek on LTIR, the Oilers have seven defencemen they should be content to play in the playoffs. They have a couple question marks in net, but hey, that’s goaltending. Finally getting @Alex Stalock on the roster gives the Oilers three viable options, it will be a matter of getting the right one on the right night.

That leaves forward as the area to upgrade, and the Oilers have been making some wiggle room.

They recently waived @Tyler Ennis and @Joakim Nygard, placing them on the Taxi Squad reduced Edmonton’s cap hit to $83.85m. Since Edmonton was roughly $350k under the cap when they originally placed players on LTIR, they can spend $81.15m plus the value of the contracts on LTIR. If Koekkoek is going to be out for the remainder of the regular season, that’s just over $5m.

All that adds up to $2.3m in daily cap space, with 20 skaters and 3 goalies. I believe Oilers fans are aware of this, but LTIR space does not pro-rate the same way accrued space does, so that space doesn’t expand as we get closer to the deadline. Their only flexibility is dropping a player off the roster, and Kailer Yamamoto is the only waiver exempt one. Devin Shore cleared waivers earlier in the season, but sending him down would only save $700k.

To open up more space, sending someone like @Alex Chiasson back in a trade would clear $2.15m. I know there is motivation for the Oilers to move bad contracts with term, but I don’t think the Oilers want to pay deadline prices on that. Similarly, I don’t think the Oilers want to add more cap burden to this offseason, so they should be targeting a pending UFA. Looking back to last year Holland traded for @Andreas Athanasiou who was an RFA, but avoided offering him a qualifying offer for the same reason.

Sending out Chiasson’s $2.15m would give the Oilers over $4m to play with, enough to get @Taylor Hall at 50% retained if they so desired. I don’t think the Oilers are headed for such a big move, but there is plenty of flexibility if they see a player Holland likes. If it comes to adding multiple players, Edmonton could really use the 3rd goalie spot on a forward.

It’s unconventional, but waiving Koskinen would open up $1.075m and a roster spot. I have serious doubts he would be claimed, then Edmonton could still rotate him onto the roster when injuries arise and/or when the cap ceases to apply in the playoffs. That would allow the Oilers to add $3.5m without sending anyone back off the roster. They could add a player that bumps Archibald or Kassian to the 4th line, and head into the playoffs with a much more well-rounded forward group with that cap space.

Regardless of what they do at the deadline, the Oilers are going to pay out some performance bonuses that become bonus overages for next season. @Mike Smith has already earned $100k in GP bonuses, with the potential to earn $500k. Bouchard and Yamamoto combine for $730k in potential PBs. If they’re already running overages, the Oilers may as well make it count and add to the roster for a playoff run.