When you think of “defence” in hockey, what comes to mind? What does it truly mean to be a “good defender” in the NHL?
For a lot of people, the first thing that comes to mind are tall, physical defencemen throwing hits, blocking shots, and clearing the zone. Others may think of players who make flashy defensive plays, such as backchecks and stick checks. Another may evaluate defenders solely based on often they were directly at fault for a goal against.
In my personal experience, these are all very common responses to this question. To varying extents, all of the attributes mentioned in these answers indeed contribute to playing good defence.
And yet, I still think there’s a lot that people are missing when it comes to defensive play.
Let’s step back and review the concept of “defence.” Comparatively, it’s much easier to define and evaluate offence, which, in a nutshell, simply means to generate goals. There will be exceptions, but around 99% of the time, the best overall offensive players are going to be those who produce the most goals and assists, which logically makes sense.
On the other hand, defence can be defined as the prevention or suppression of goals from the opposing team. But, evaluating defence is much more controversial amongst fans, media, and even NHL coaches and general managers. Why?
This leads me to the main topic of this piece: Evan Bouchard.
It’s safe to say that Bouchard is a polarizing player amongst fans, both inside and outside of Edmonton. On the one hand, most will agree that he’s an exceptionally talented offensive player, but there are many who claim that his offensive totals are inflated by consistent ice time next to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the power-play.
And if his offensive talent wasn’t already controversial, his defensive value is even more up for debate.
It seems that every time Evan Bouchard makes an error on a goal against, his play is scrutinized, sparking lengthy debate and discussion over his actual value. This recently occurred yet again just a few days ago during Edmonton’s game against the Vegas Golden Knights, where Bouchard made mistakes on both goals one and three in Vegas’ 4-2 victory.
These heated debates are further exacerbated by the fact that Bouchard’s current $3.9M contract is set to expire after this season, and there’s a strong possibility his new contract exceeds Darnell Nurse’s $9.25M cap-hit. Many have doubts if Bouchard will truly be worth that much money, and it is a common opinion that Bouchard is a poor defensive player.
So, it begs the question: how good is Evan Bouchard, specifically defensively?
Let’s go back to my original question at the beginning of this article. For me, a good defensive player embodies the definition of what good defence means; goal suppression.
In the grand scheme of things, we have to note that blocking shots, throwing hits, backchecking, etc are all ultimately means to an end. The only thing that matters on the scoreboard at the end of the day is if a player did their job at preventing goals.
Perhaps the best way to objectively measure this is to quantify a player’s impact on on-ice goals and scoring chances against. Put differently, when Player X steps on ice, do their teammates allow fewer goals and scoring chances? (note that I additionally look at scoring chance suppression rates, as a player’s on-ice GA rates can often be influenced by good or bad goaltending; it’s important to look at both, in my opinion)
One tool I commonly use is EvolvingHockey’s RAPM model, which attempts to adjust a player’s on-ice offensive and defensive results for external factors such as quality of teammates, quality of competition, zone starts and so on. It is by no means a flawless tool, but it’s very useful when interpreted correctly. Here is a glance at Bouchard’s defensive on-ice impacts:
To interpret what this visual means, Bouchard has a net positive impact on suppressing goals against in the past two seasons. In the past three seasons, he also has an above-average impact on suppressing expected goals (scoring chances) and shot attempts against. They aren’t just barely above the average either; the percentile values range from the high-fifties all the way to the mid-nineties.
In other words, Evan Bouchard is comfortably a positive-impact defensive player.
This means that Bouchard’s teammates allow fewer goals, scoring chances, and shots with him on-ice. EvolvingHockey’s data is by no means an outlier; these results match up with other NHL statistical models as well, such as JFreshHockey’s model and Micah Blake McCurdy’s model. Additionally, this season, among all defencemen with a minimum of 250 minutes played, Bouchard ranks 15th in (fewest) on-ice goals allowed per hour.
Now, this contradicts many people’s opinions on Bouchard, as many claim that Bouchard is a one-dimensional player and a defensive liability. When I bring up Bouchard’s defensive results in online discussion circles, a very common response I receive is the assertion that these stats are inflated due to his defensive partner, Mattias Ekholm.
Indeed, Ekholm is an outstanding defensive player, and he has helped Bouchard’s game quite a bit. There should be no doubt about that. However, in the past two seasons, Bouchard is operating at a 55 percent goal differential and a 64 percent expected goal differential without Ekholm on ice.
Put differently, Bouchard still produces strong results on both ends of the ice with and without Ekholm.
Some may bring up Bouchard’s quality of competition as a counterargument. Still, according to PuckIQ, Bouchard has led the entire team in TOI against elite competition in the past two seasons.
Others may argue that Bouchard gets a lot of offensive zone starts, claiming it inflates his metrics; however, not only do the models above already account for zone starts, but per PuckIQ, Bouchard allows the second-fewest scoring chances per hour on the team after taking a defensive zone shift start.
So, if it’s not due to Ekholm, quality of competition, or zone starts, what is it? Why does Bouchard have such strong on-ice defensive impacts?
There’s an easy explanation: Evan Bouchard is simply a good defensive player.
Before you raise your pitchforks, let me explain why. To add to Bouchard’s on-ice stats, we can also use microstats, which are essentially stats relating to specific individual actions, such as zone entries, zone exits, and so on. Using Corey Sznajder’s microstat tracking project (I highly recommend checking it out), here is a brief profile of Bouchard’s microstats:
You’ll notice that Bouchard ranks exceptionally well in essentially every stat here, from zone entries and exits, to entry defence and puck retrievals. But what do zone entries and zone exits have to do with defence, you may ask?
Again, defence is defined as the prevention or suppression of goals against. Therefore, anything that results in fewer goals for the opposition should be categorized as a “good defensive play.”
This is why, at 5v5, good defence doesn’t necessarily start in the defensive zone; instead, a lot of it starts in the offensive and neutral zones.
Think about it. The more you control the puck in the offensive and neutral zones, the less time is spent in the defensive zone. Consequently, it can result in fewer shots and goals against. That isn’t to say that a good defence is a good offence, but rather, a good defence is good puck possession. Perhaps the best way to defend is to simply limit the time you spend defending at all; after all, the opposition can’t generate goals if they don’t have the puck to begin with. I feel a lot of people don’t recognize this.
Now, the vast majority of people, including myself, can agree that Bouchard is not good in the defensive zone without the puck. In fact, he may even be very bad at this specific area of the game, or inconsistent at best. Bouchard can have major issues with defensive coverage, and often, he can make embarrassingly glaring errors on a goal against.
However, the primary reason he has good defensive results, in spite of his in-zone defensive play, is that he hardly spends a lot of time in his own end to begin with.
Using NHL EDGE, here’s a look at what percentage of his total TOI he spends in the defensive zone:
Bouchard has spent over 46 percent of his TOI at even-strength in the offensive zone, ranking higher than 97% of the league’s defencemen. As a result, he has spent less than 36 percent of his TOI in the defensive zone, lower than 96% of the league’s defencemen.
As mentioned above, there’s a variety of different things that Bouchard does well that lead to these results. He’s excellent at retrieving loose pucks in the defensive zone and turning them into clean, controlled breakouts. This makes it substantially easier for his teammates to enter the offensive zone to start an offensive attack, but Bouchard can also carry the puck into the zone with control himself. From there, he consistently makes well-timed passes and pinches that extend OZ possession. When the opponent does obtain the puck and attempts a rush attempt the other way, Bouchard excels at denying opposition zone entries at the blueline, turning them into yet another entry attempt for the Oilers the other way.
Combined, all of these attributes result in the Oilers spending significantly more time in the offensive zone with Bouchard on-ice, which in turn leads to less time in the defensive zone, and consequently, fewer goals and chances against.
Of course, a common response to my argument here is the fact that he plays so much with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. And yes, it goes without saying that they definitely boost Bouchard’s impressive possession numbers.
However, take a look at this:
In simple terms, Bouchard’s on-ice results without McDavid and/or Draisaitl are superior to Cale Makar’s results without Nathan MacKinnon.
Now, I’m not implying Bouchard is better than Makar; rather, Makar’s results here are used as a reference for the point that I’m making, which is that Bouchard continues to drive excellent two-way results with or without Edmonton’s stars.
All things considered, I believe what makes Bouchard’s defensive play so polarizing is that a lot of people hyper-fixate solely on Bouchard’s mistakes, and not enough on what else he does that contribute to defence.
We have to remember that hockey is a fast and eventful sport. In your average game, there will be roughly ~60-70 shots, ~120-130 zone entries, ~150+ zone exits, and hundreds of total puck touches, all happening at high speed.
At the end of the day, we are mortal. We don’t have a flawless, limitless memory. The human brain cannot accurately remember, process, and analyze every play from every player from every game in a full 82-game season.
After viewing a lengthy movie, what will you remember from it in the coming weeks, months, or years? After the first or second watch, will you recall every single scene in all three acts of the film with precise accuracy?
Or, is it those exciting action sequences or dramatic emotional moments that stick in your mind?
When presented with a large amount of information, it is natural human instinct to remember or focus on the things that “pop out” the most. In this case, when people think of defence, many will think of the plays that are most visually noticeable, such as shot blocks or hits for “good defence,” and turnovers or miscues leading to goals against for “bad defence.”
This is why I believe the topic of evaluating defensive play is so controversial. It’s the overemphasis on the plays that are most observable, while the subtle plays that actually result in good defensive results are downplayed or often not mentioned at all, alongside the fact that a significant amount of people fail to realize that defence can also by dictated by plays in the offensive and neutral zone.
I believe what’s happening here with Bouchard is that his errors are given far too much attention than they deserve. Occasionally, Bouchard will make an awful mistake leading to a goal against, which can result in Bouchard being on a highlight reel for all the wrong reasons. That glaring error is what ends up sticking in people’s minds the most after a game, leading to significant criticism.
But, many fail to consistently notice all the other areas of the game he excels at throughout all three zones of the ice; after all, there is a significantly higher chance that the average fan is going to remember a defensive mistake leading to a goal against rather than a zone exit or a zone denial.
Luckily, we have access to data that can effortlessly track every event that occurs in every game, unlike our limited brains. And, this data strongly suggests that the good significantly outweighs the bad in this case.
Bouchard’s weak in-zone defensive play is substantially trumped by all the little plays he consistently makes, even if they aren’t always apparent, as they lead to superb possession results, which in turn leads to strong defensive results.
Six years back, just months after Bouchard was drafted by Edmonton, Scott Wheeler of The Athletic wrote a detailed analysis on Bouchard (linked here) using his time in the OHL, titled as “How the eye test fails to properly evaluate Evan Bouchard, the Oilers’ young star.” A lot of the arguments he makes in the piece continue to apply to Bouchard today, and I’d like to point out this paragraph in particular:
More than anything, Bouchard teaches us how our eyes can play tricks on us and that lethargy doesn’t equate to a lack of talent or headspace. Defencemen can be dominant without looking it, and Bouchard is exactly that.
So, Evan Bouchard is not a perfect player in any sense. In no way am I making an excuse for his in-zone defensive play, because he has to improve there. There is no doubt his defensive lapses can look ugly.
But, results are what ultimately matters most. Good defence means to limit the opposition from generating offence, and the fact is that the Oilers allow fewer shots, chances, and goals with Bouchard on-ice at 5v5. This is an exceptionally talented player who will only continue to become better.
After 15 games, there are various concerns that Oilers fans could have regarding the team. In my mind, Evan Bouchard’s defensive play is not one of them.
Find me on Twitter (@NHL_Sid)
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