Edmonton is four wins away from winning the Stanley Cup, but the Oilers are the underdog according to the betting market. This article breaks down the odds and trends that make up this Cup Final matchup to determine if there is any betting value heading into Game 1.

Oilers vs. Panthers Game 1 Odds

  • Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: +120
  • Florida Panthers Moneyline Odds: -140
  • Puck Line Odds: Stars +1.5 (-225), Oilers -1.5 (+185)
  • Game Total: 5.5 goals (over -115, under -105)

Stanley Cup Final Odds

Edmonton came into the season with the third-best Stanley Cup odds at 10/1, while the Panthers were outside the top-10 at 20/1. However, Florida enters the series as the favourite to win the Stanley Cup. The Panthers are listed at -140 over at Bet365, which implies that they have a 58.3 percent chance of defeating the Oilers. Edmonton is listed as a +120 underdog. The Oilers were also listed as a +120 underdog in 2006 when they last made it to the the Cup Final. Edmonton lost to the Carolina Hurricanes in seven games.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Game 1 of the Cup Final.

Handicapping the Oilers (11-6 SU, 6-11 ATS, 9-8 O/U)

“Stressful” is one way to describe Edmonton’s season. The Oilers were able to eliminate the Los Angeles Kings (in five games), Vancouver Canucks (in seven games), and Dallas Stars (in six games), but they have found ways to make things tough on themselves all season long, and that’s probably not going to change. The Oilers aren’t perfect, but their best can be better than anybody else’s, including the Panthers.
The Cup Final will be a test because Florida will likely generate more shots and chances than Los Angeles, Vancouver, or Dallas did, but the Lightning, Bruins, and Rangers weren’t as well-equipped to handle the Panthers as the Oilers are. Some star-studded teams are all flash and no substance, but not the Oilers. Sure, Edmonton is an offensive powerhouse, but they also know how to defend, or else they wouldn’t be here.
Edmonton has done a good job limiting shots and chances up to this point, and I don’t think they’ve received enough credit. People seem to dismiss how tough teams like Los Angeles, Vancouver, and Dallas were, matchup wise, despite the fact that all three teams ranked highly in categories like expected goals and shot attempt percentage. According to Evolving Hockey, the Oilers finished among the top-three teams in those categories, whereas Florida’s previous opponents ranked among the bottom-half of the league. In other words, the Panthers haven’t played a team like Edmonton yet this postseason.

Handicapping the Panthers(62-37 SU, 43-56 ATS, 49-49 O/U)

Florida’s run to the Stanley Cup Final was improbable in 2023, and ultimately, they were no match for their opponent. However, this iteration of the team is different. The Panthers were a favourite in 16 of 17 games as they eliminated the Tampa Bay Lightning (five games), Boston Bruins (six games), and the Presidents’ Trophy-winning New York Rangers (six games).
The Panthers are a physical team that possesses star power and scoring depth, and they’ve established themselves as arguably the best defensive team in the NHL. Florida allowed the second-fewest goals in the regular season and the fewest goals of any team that made it out of the opening round. Sergei Bobrovsky has been solid, allowing two or fewer goals in 13 out of 17 games this postseason, but he hasn’t had to stand on his head because of how good the team has been in front of him. No team has allowed fewer shot attempts than the Panthers. Florida also ranks third in expected goals against this postseason, according to Evolving Hockey.
However, Florida does like to play on the edge, and no team has taken more minor penalties this season. The Panthers have been great on the penalty kill, but they could lose their edge if Edmonton’s power play sees the ice a lot. Furthermore, the Panthers are going to have to score more in this series to win than they had to in previous matchups. Florida has scored three or fewer goals in 13 out of 17 games, and it’s going to take at least four to beat Edmonton on most nights.

Team Betting Trends

  • The Oilers and Panthers have both gone 7-3 straight up in their last 10 games. Edmonton is 4-6 against the puck line compared to just 2-8 for Florida.
  • Florida is 6-3 as the home team in the playoffs while the Oilers are 6-3 as the away team. The road team is 44-37 (.543) in the 2024 NHL playoffs.
  • There hasn’t been a sweep in the Stanley Cup Final since 1998, but the championship series hasn’t gone the distance very often, either, with only four Game 7s since 2006, and only one in the last 12 seasons.
  • The favourite has won the Stanley Cup Final in 14 out of the last 18 seasons, including the last four in a row.

Player Prop Betting Trends

  • Connor McDavid scored three goals and six assists in six games versus Dallas in the Western Conference Final. The Oilers captain also registered 23 shots on goal in the series. McDavid leads all players with 31 points in 18 games. He is the current favourite to win the Conn Smythe trophy.
  • Evan Bouchard has scored three goals and 11 assists in his last 10 games. Bouchard needs to score 10 points in the final to tie Paul Coffey for the most points by a defenseman in a single postseason.
  • Panthers’ captain Aleksander Barkov was relatively quiet in the Eastern Conference Final, scoring one goal and three assists in six games. Barkov has gone pointless in six out of his last eight games and nine of 17 games overall this postseason.
  • Matthew Tkachuk leads the Panthers with nine points (one goal) in his last 10 games. However, while he has registered at least four shots on goal in 10 out of 17 games, he has just two goals in his last 14 games dating back to Game 4 of the first round.
  • Sam Bennett and Sam Reinhart are tied for the goal-scoring lead with five a piece over their last 10 games. Bennett has registered eight points in 10 games since returning from injury in round two.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

Betting on the over in the first four games of a series has been a profitable strategy over the last three postseasons. Between 2022 and 2024, totals set at 5.5 or 6 have gone over at a 57.1 percent clip, going 60-45-2 for an 11 percent return on investment. The total for Game 1 of the Cup Final is currently set at 5.5 (over -115) and that seems too low. This series is drenched in skill, and as good as both teams have been defensively, both goaltenders are going to have their hands full. Bet over 5.5 goals at -115 odds.