Like clockwork, the Edmonton Oilers will face off against the Los Angeles Kings in the opening round of the playoffs.

This marks the fourth straight postseason showdown between these two rivals. Edmonton has consistently had L.A.’s number in recent years: winning a thrilling seven-game battle in 2022, taking the series in six in 2023, and dispatching the Kings in just five games in 2024 on their way to a dramatic Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Final.

But this year feels different.

For starters, the Oilers are almost certain to begin the series on the road, handing a critical early advantage to the Kings. Los Angeles has been nearly unbeatable this season at Staples Center, boasting a dominant 31-5-4 home record (yes, we’re aware that’s the building’s old name). On the flip side, they’re a pedestrian 15-19-5 away from home, making home-ice advantage more valuable than ever.

Another important factor is Darcy Kuemper. The Kings finally have a proven number-one goalie between the pipes. Their fourth starting netminder in as many seasons, Kuemper has posted stellar numbers this year, with a .921 save percentage, a 2.03 goals-against average, and a commanding 30-11-7 record. His presence alone gives L.A. a major confidence boost.

Then there’s the Oilers’ health — or lack thereof. Edmonton enters the playoffs battered and bruised. Losing defensive stalwart Mattias Ekholm for the entire first round is already a significant blow. Meanwhile, stars like Evander Kane, Trent Frederic, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and even Connor McDavid have battled injuries down the stretch, raising serious questions about Edmonton’s readiness for another deep run.

Advantage Kings, then? Not so fast.

We’ve seen this movie before. Last year, the Kings boasted the second-best penalty kill in the NHL at 84.6 percent, but that didn’t matter once the postseason began. The Oilers torched their special teams unit with nine power-play goals in just 21 chances across five games.

Strong regular season goaltending hasn’t necessarily translated to playoff success against Edmonton, either. Cam Talbot, Joonas Korpisalo, and Jonathan Quick all put up solid numbers in recent regular seasons, only to be outmatched by the Oilers’ offensive firepower come playoff time. Kuemper, to his credit, does have championship pedigree, having led Colorado to a Stanley Cup title in 2022. But when it comes to playoff hockey, it’s a case of “show me, don’t tell me.”

Ultimately, Edmonton’s fate may hinge entirely on health. Just days ago, the Oilers were hours away from icing a lineup featuring Adam Henrique as their top-line center, with only 11 forwards and five defensemen available against the St. Louis Blues. With Troy Stecher now the latest injury casualty, it’s clear that health concerns are a very real threat. Yet, if McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Frederic, and Kane are all back for Game 1 as expected, not only does Edmonton become immediately stronger, but these elite players will be rested and ready.

Even without Ekholm, this defensive group for the Oilers is significantly improved from last year’s unit that nearly captured the Stanley Cup. While sweeping the Kings may be unlikely, and this indeed may be L.A.’s best opportunity yet, underestimate the Oilers at your peril. Need we remind you? Edmonton still boasts two of the top three players on the planet in McDavid and Draisaitl. If they’re healthy, anything is possible.