Lucky 13: 20 Games In (Updated With Standings)

With one quarter of the season now in the rear view mirror, I thought it might be fun to do a quick review of how players have stacked up against our predictions, and which readers and writers have looked the most prescient in the early going.

It turns out that commenter ronaldo has jumped out to an early lead over the field, while Baron Wanye von Gretz IV leads the writers to date.

Player High Average Low Actual Reader(s) Writer
Ales Hemsky 90 77 59 62 Hungoverman, Steve Smith (61) Lowetide (66)
Shawn Horcoff 84 64 36 49 Rogue, S. Oilers (49) Willis (51)
Jordan Eberle 68 45 30 49 Jayoilfan, Robinrussia, Scorecoff Hemmercles (49) Wanye (50)
Dustin Penner 80 64 48 45 mesh (48) Wanye (54)
Sam Gagner 75 58 42 45 Scmidty (46) Wanye (51)
Taylor Hall 60 43 25 37 Alaskan Pipeline, stuubs (37) Lowetide (40)
Magnus Paajarvi 66 47 30 25 m@s f@s (30) Lowetide (30)
Ryan Jones       25    
Andrew Cogliano 60 39 26 16 Hungoverman (26) Lowetide (30)
Gilbert Brule 59 44 33 12 Kyle (33) Willis (32)
Ryan Whitney 69 42 22 70 russ99 (69) Brownlee (48)
Kurtis Foster 54 36 16 33 BUCK75, Haboiler, mesh (33) baggedmilk (34)
Theo Peckham       21    
Tom Gilbert 56 41 28 21 Chris. S.Oilers (28) baggedmilk (35)
Ladislav Smid 34 18 8 12 m@s f@s, mesh, toprightcorner (12) Lowetide (10)

Since nobody had much faith in either Ryan Jones or Theo Peckham to show up on these lists, what we actually have here are the top 10 Oilers forwards and top five Oilers defencemen.

Five players have the distinct achievement of being on pace for fewer points than the most pessimistic fan on the site predicted them to: Dustin Penner, Tom Gilbert, and Magnus Paajarvi all missed by a relatively modest margin, while Andrew Cogliano is out by 10 points to date and Gilbert Brule has the widest gap in terms of performance vs. expectation, as he’s currently on pace for 12 points and the most pessimistic fan picked 33.

Had the site’s last commenter simply gone one point lower than the most pessimistic choice for each player, he’d be closest to the current pace of all these players. Given that we haven’t even seen significant injuries yet, that’s remarkable.

Standings

Given the requests I’ve had, here are some preliminary standings, based on projected points after 20 games. Obviously, there’s a lot of hockey left to be played, so don’t take these too seriously.  Writers are in bold, and scoring rules can be found here.

Rank Entrant SCORE
1 ronaldo -167
2 Scorecoff Hemmercules -174
3 Hungoverman -176
4 Steve Smith -177
5 Wanye -181
6 Motel -182
7 GospelofJon -185
8 Jonathan Willis -185
9 Jen -187
10 RossCreekNation -190
11 oilderrick -191
12 AZOilfan -193
13 b.oilers -193
14 Offthebandwagon -195
15 OB1 – Team Hall -195
16 BobbyChamp -195
17 Schmidty -196
18 BMcEachern -197
19 Ducey -198
20 Kodiak -198
21 Lowetide -199
22 mesh -200
23 tiderip -202
24 S.Oilers -202
25 greenlightning86 -203
26 book¡e -205
27 Pajamah -206
28 BUCK75 -206
29 D -208
30 baggedmilk -209
31 cara -209
32 Wiseguy -210
33 I’m a Scientist! -210
34 Oilfan64 -210
35 Jason Gregor -210
36 ubermiguel -212
37 Bucky9 -212
38 Rogue -212
39 The Boy -212
40 DougWeightProblem -212
41 Robin Brownlee -213
42 Crash -215
43 cableguy -216
44 Vanguard -217
45 Mojo -218
46 SLAM -219
47 CSimpson18 -221
48 Sean F -221
49 Bash -222
50 borisnikov -222
51 OvenChicken8 -222
52 captainnapalm -222
53 Haboiler -222
54 OilerBill -223
55 HC -223
56 Jeremy -224
57 Dyckster -225
58 MrMackey -226
59 Chris. -226
60 Polar94 -227
61 BurkeTheTurd -227
62 Positivebrontefan -227
63 Heavyd -228
64 duuby -230
65 Alaskan Pipeline -231
66 Quicksilver ballet -231
67 AussieOil -233
68 Npanciroli -233
69 Trenton L -234
70 James H -235
71 Scarlett -237
72 Stone Hands McOsta -238
73 Tracie -238
74 Henry -239
75 toprightcorner -243
76 rindog -247
77 madjam -248
78 rubbertrout -248
79 The Ramburglar -249
80 Soft Hands McSteeley -253
81 Robinrussia -254
82 SportsDad -256
83 Kyle -259
84 Travis Dakin -259
85 Wiggleswag -260
86 Ender -261
87 Oilcruzer -262
88 jayoilfan -263
89 tricksnard -266
90 stuubs -268
91 Miami Dolphins -269
92 Bucknuck -271
93 dohfOs -276
94 m@s f@s -279
95 DimebagDave -286
96 Fee Logolin -300
97 LuckyLex -305
98 russ99 -314
99 treevojo -329