Aside from the comments on Yakupov, the most interesting comments to me in Steve Tambellini’s last press conference were the ones on the Oilers’ goaltending situation. Tambellini confirmed that Nikolai Khabibulin would be back, and praised his veteran goaltender.
Asked by Bob Stauffer whether or not Devan Dubnyk was a starter, Tambellini answered this way:
Only to the point, Bob, where maybe he hasn’t done it long enough. In peoples’ minds, they see the potential. I know he wants it, I know he wants it badly. I’ve always said to both him and Khabby, ‘I don’t care who it is, just somebody take the net.’ If I’m saying that to a young guy, and if I’m a young player and my manager has told me, he’s given me the green light that if you’re playing that well it’s your net, go take it, I’m pretty excited. I like what I saw the last third of the season, I liked his poise. I liked the way he handled, you know playing once a week or every two games here and then sitting five games is much different from managing your energy, confidence levels, expectations from the rest of the team that ‘we need someone to be in a post that can help us win every night, give us a chance to win every night.’ So there were good signs.
The first sentence of that quote is the one that jumps out at me. Dubnyk’s career save percentage in the NHL is 0.910, which is right around the league average and compares favourably to guys like Marc-Andre Fleury (0.912) and Martin Brodeur (0.910) in the same span.
On Khabibulin, Tambellini was definitive, saying “We’ll have Nik back.” Asked what role Khabibulin would return in, he expanded on that statement:
You know, when I talked to Nik in his post season exit meetings, he told me he wants to play another four or five years. I said ‘You feel that good Nik?’ and he said ‘Well why not?’ So, by him saying that to me, he’s still feeling the compete and the challenge. I think guys like Nik Khabibulin need to be, or like to be, challenged or motivated, they’re not afraid of it. So Devan’s poised right now to take games from him and I love the fact his plan is to get the net back.
Khabibulin and Dubnyk both started playing for the Oilers in 2009-10. Here’s the list of active NHL goalies (minimum 50 GP) and their save percentages since that season, with Khabibulin and Dubnyk bolded:
RkPlayerGPWLT/OSV%
1
Cory Schneider
60
36
13
3
0.932
2
Tuukka Rask
97
44
34
10
0.927
3
Tim Thomas
159
87
48
18
0.926
4
Henrik Lundqvist
203
110
72
20
0.924
5
Pekka Rinne
195
108
56
22
0.922
6
Tomas Vokoun
168
70
73
18
0.922
7
Ryan Miller
196
106
61
23
0.921
8
Jaroslav Halak
148
79
46
19
0.920
9
Roberto Luongo
183
109
51
19
0.920
10
Evgeni Nabokov
113
63
34
13
0.919
11
Ilya Bryzgalov
196
111
56
23
0.918
12
Carey Price
178
77
76
22
0.918
13
Jonathan Quick
202
109
67
23
0.918
14
Cam Ward
189
85
72
28
0.918
15
Jonas Hiller
181
85
69
19
0.917
16
Jimmy Howard
183
109
49
19
0.917
17
Kari Lehtonen
140
72
50
15
0.917
18
Miikka Kiprusoff
214
107
74
27
0.916
19
Jason LaBarbera
53
18
20
7
0.916
20
Antti Niemi
167
95
47
19
0.916
21
Mike Smith
131
64
42
18
0.916
22
Craig Anderson
185
95
67
17
0.915
23
Johan Hedberg
108
53
35
10
0.915
24
Semyon Varlamov
106
52
37
14
0.915
25
Jose Theodore
132
67
34
21
0.914
26
Niklas Backstrom
157
67
64
20
0.912
27
Scott Clemmensen
84
31
25
15
0.912
28
Marc-Andre Fleury
199
115
58
15
0.912
29
Josh Harding
59
22
24
4
0.912
30
James Reimer
71
34
24
9
0.911
31
Martin Brodeur
192
99
72
13
0.910
32
Corey Crawford
115
63
36
13
0.910
33
Devan Dubnyk
101
36
43
13
0.910
34
Brian Elliott
148
67
55
17
0.910
35
Michal Neuvirth
103
49
29
9
0.910
36
Sergei Bobrovsky
83
42
23
10
0.909
37
Jean-Sebastien Giguere
100
36
37
14
0.909
38
Ondrej Pavelec
168
64
69
25
0.909
39
Brent Johnson
62
29
18
6
0.907
40
Andrew Raycroft
50
19
18
1
0.907
41
Ray Emery
73
38
22
5
0.906
42
Martin Biron
67
29
26
6
0.905
43
Chris Mason
114
51
42
12
0.905
44
Al Montoya
51
18
16
10
0.905
45
Antero Niittymaki
73
33
25
8
0.905
46
Marty Turco
87
35
33
14
0.905
47
Brian Boucher
77
28
34
8
0.904
48
Dan Ellis
85
37
28
8
0.904
49
Dwayne Roloson
144
60
59
15
0.904
50
Peter Budaj
77
25
33
11
0.903
51
Mathieu Garon
119
45
39
16
0.902
52
Jeff Deslauriers
52
19
29
4
0.901
53
Nikolai Khabibulin
105
29
61
13
0.901
54
Curtis McElhinney
50
18
18
3
0.901
55
Ty Conklin
66
23
24
7
0.900
56
Jonas Gustavsson
107
39
45
15
0.900
57
Steve Mason
158
60
73
19
0.899
58
Alex Auld
54
17
13
7
0.898
Devan Dubnyk ranks 33rd on the list. Omitting his cameo at the end of 2009-10, and he moves to 22nd among NHL goalies, tied with Craig Anderson. He’s young, and even if he’s reached his plateau he’s still a very respectable 1A/1B-style goalie.
Nikolai Khabibulin ranks 53rd on that list, tied with Jeff Deslauriers and Curtis McElhinney. Only four guys with a minimum of 50 games have posted a worse save percentage. Omit his strong part-season in 2009-10 with the Oilers (18GP, 0.909 SV%) and his save percentage drops to 0.899, ahead of only Alex Auld and just behind Ty Conklin and Jonas Gustavsson.
The numbers are clear, and in this case tell truth. The decision to stick with Devan Dubnyk is a good one. The decision to stick with Nikolai Khabibulin is indefensible for a team actively trying to win.
Khabibulin’s late season collapses the last two years have been pivotal to landing consecutive first overall draft picks. Post-Christmas, the last two years, Khabibulin’s record has been a mind-blowing 3-33-6, with a 0.880 SV%. Overall, his record has been 22-53-11, as opposed to Dubnyk’s 32-32-11 mark.
A team actively looking to move out of the basement would look at what Khabibulin has done the last few years, decide that he’s not up to the job, and find another option. Even the Oilers’ third-stringer this season – Yann Danis, the AHL’s goalie of the year – is a better option for the NHL roster than Nik Khabibulin.
It’s a bad choice for the Oilers, but this isn’t new. They’ve been making bad choices with Khabibulin since the day they signed him.

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