We’ve talked a little bit in the last few days about the Oilers’ 50-man list. What does it look like now? What should it look like going forward? Is it valid to worry about how much room there is on it, or is that a red herring?
Here, compiled via various sources (NHLNumbers, Capgeek, Copper and Blue, the Oilers’ official site) is the Oilers’ current 50-man list – naturally, any errors are my own responsibility. All players are listed as either NHL or AHL, even if they’re in a different league (i.e. Toni Rajala). It’s worth noting that several players listed (Marincin, Bunz, Pelss) will not count until next season.

Players Under Contract For 2012-13

No.PlayerLeagueStatus
1
Shawn Horcoff
NHL
Signed
2
Ales Hemsky
NHL
Signed
3
Ryan Whitney
NHL
Signed
4
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
NHL
Signed
5
Nikolai Khabibulin
NHL
Signed
6
Taylor Hall
NHL
Signed
7
Nick Schultz
NHL
Signed
8
Sam Gagner
NHL
Signed
9
Ladislav Smid
NHL
Signed
10
Eric Belanger
NHL
Signed
11
Magnus Paajarvi
NHL
Signed
12
Andy Sutton
NHL
Signed
13
Ryan Jones
NHL
Signed
14
Jordan Eberle
NHL
Signed
15
Ben Eager
NHL
Signed
16
Teemu Hartikainen
NHL
Signed
17
Corey Potter
NHL
Signed
18
Colten Teubert
AHL
Signed
19
Curtis Hamilton
AHL
Signed
20
Anton Lander
AHL
Signed
21
Martin Marincin
AHL
Signed
22
Ryan Martindale
AHL
Signed
23
Tyler Pitlick
AHL
Signed
24
Taylor Fedun
AHL
Signed
25
Mark Arcobello
AHL
Signed
26
Toni Rajala
AHL
Signed
27
Olivier Roy
AHL
Signed
28
Tyler Bunz
AHL
Signed
29
Tanner House
AHL
Signed
30
Cameron Abney
AHL
Signed
31
Philippe Cornet
AHL
Signed
32
Antti Tyrvainen
AHL
Signed
33
Kristians Pelss
AHL
Signed

Restricted and Unrestricted Free Agents

No.PlayerLeagueStatus
34
Ryan Smyth
NHL
UFA
35
Cam Barker
NHL
RFA
36
Theo Peckham
NHL
RFA
37
Jeff Petry
NHL
RFA
38
Lennart Petrell
NHL
UFA
39
Linus Omark
NHL
RFA
40
Darcy Hordichuk
NHL
UFA
41
Devan Dubnyk
NHL
RFA
42
Alex Plante
AHL
RFA
43
Chris Vande Velde
AHL
RFA
44
Taylor Chorney
AHL
UFA
45
Yann Danis
AHL
UFA
46
Ryan Keller
AHL
UFA
47
Josh Green
AHL
UFA
48
Hunter Tremblay
AHL
RFA
49
Milan Kytnar
AHL
RFA
50
Bryan Rodney
AHL
UFA
Obviously, not all 50 players will be back. So how do we get a reasonable idea of what the Oilers will need for next season?

The Plan

Seventeen players on the signed list will likely start next season in the NHL. I’ve included Magnus Paajarvi, Teemu Hartikainen and Corey Potter on the NHL list, and Anton Lander on the AHL list, despite uncertainty or speculation about their status for next year. The list as it stands includes 11 forwards, five defensemen and one goaltender.
It stands to reason, then, that the Oilers will need three more forwards, two more defensemen (alternately, two more forwards and three more defensemen) and an additional goaltender at the NHL level. Let’s call these players Ryan Smyth, Lennart Petrell, Darcy Hordichuk, Jeff Petry, Theo Peckham and Devan Dubnyk. Aside from Petry and Dubnyk, any of these might be let go and replaced by external candidates, but this makes things simple.
Our list of signed players for next season now stands at 40 names – the 33 guys under contract, plus seven others to fill out the NHL roster. There’s still room for 10 more contracts.
In 2011-12, a total of 597 forwards, 297 defensemen, and 89 goalies played at least one regular season game. This means the average NHL team can expect to use six forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie not on the NHL roster at the start of the year. Of the players on the AHL list, it seems reasonable to expect that Lander, Pitlick, Cornet, Teubert and Fedun will all qualify as call-ups. Let’s toss Tyrvainen in for good measure. We could include Roy, but the Oilers (intelligent) pattern under Tambellini has been to always have one veteran goalie on a two-way deal in Oklahoma City. This means that the Oilers will use two-way deals on two AHL forwards, an AHL defenseman and an AHL goalie. We can call those guys Vande Velde, Green, Plante and Danis. That brings us to a total of 44 names under contract.
The Oilers have six slots left. They still have three 2010 draft picks unsigned. They should sign Jeremie Blain and Brandon Davidson. Drew Czerwonka’s bigger than Kristians Pelss and has similar numbers, but for argument let’s say they let him go. That brings our total to 46 names under contract, and four slots left.
Of course, the team in the AHL is now significantly weaker. Let’s say they keep Keller, because it’s hard to find high-end AHL veterans willing to sign AHL-only deals. Let’s further say they keep Chorney, because he had a pretty good season in 2011-12 and Bryan Helmer turns 40 over the summer.
So far, they’ve dumped Barker, Omark, Tremblay, Kytnar and Rodney, and allowed Czerwonka to re-enter the draft. They may have upgraded the NHL forwards and defense – perhaps trading away Theo Peckham and signing someone new, perhaps dumping Petrell and Hordichuk, and signing someone else. Forty-eight slots out of 50 are full, and there are still two open slots.
Then the first overall pick comes into play.  Assuming it’s Nail Yakupov, they could slot him into one of the spare NHL forward slots, and cut a guy like Lennart Petrell or Darcy Hordichuk.  Alternately, they could make a trade to free up a slot.  If it’s Yakupov (or even if it’s Ryan Murray) and he makes the team, he’s taking one of those slots we set aside for an NHL player, and probably isn’t going to represent an addition to that 48-man total.  If by some chance the Oilers’ selection doesn’t play in the NHL, his contract should slide forward for one year and not count against the 50-man list.
Forty-eight names is a manageable total, but it guarantees the Oilers will be keeping their contract list in mind. If the club wants to bring a veteran tryout to training camp, or look at an overage European in the same mold as Petrell and Tyrvainen, or trade to add a player at some point during the regular season, that 50-man cap is going to be a consideration.

This week by Jonathan Willis at the Nation Network