How Good was Tobias Rieder’s 2011-12 Season?

Tobias Rieder is one of the more interesting prospects the Oilers have in their system. The German-born winger made the jump to the OHL last season and played well enough for the Oilers to draft him in the fourth round this year. In 2011-12 he exploded, scoring 42 goals and recording 84 points in 60 games.

How does that compare to other OHL forwards drafted in 2011?

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It compares very well.

Scott Reynolds, who includes both regular season and playoff numbers in his calculations, had Rieder as the 12th-most prolific forward in the entire 2011 Draft when he looked at NHL equivalencies the other day for NHLNumbers.

The list I’ve put together below is for all of the OHL forwards drafted in 2011 (excluding overagers). I’ve used regular season numbers only – I tend to think the benefits of including playoff numbers (greater sample size) are outweighed by the negatives (scoring is typically lower in the post-season, players on marginal playoff teams are unfairly penalized). Even so, Rieder’s place on the list is interesting:

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Of the top-20 OHL forwards ranked by points-per-game, only two: Rieder (ranked fourth on this list) and Andrew Fritsch (ranked 18th) were picked after the top-100 selections. Rieder’s offensive production in 2011-12 compares pretty favourably to that of 5th overall pick Ryan Strome (Rieder had better goal totals; Strome better point totals) and 7th overall pick Mark Scheifele (Rieder was ahead in both goals and points).

Now, there are some obvious caveats: first, there’s more to hockey than picking up goals and assists, and second, this is a single season – Rieder scored 49 points in his draft year; Scheifele had 75, Strome more than 100.

Even so, it’s difficult to imagine what more Rieder could have done in his second OHL season. His offensive totals are far better than what we would expect for a player with his draft number, and at this point it’s possible to begin wondering if he might end up having a future on a scoring line at the NHL level. Obviously, that’s far from a certainty, but he’s in the conversation now and he really wasn’t based on his totals a year ago.

If the 2011 draft were re-done, I think there’s very little chance that Rieder would last to the end of the second round.

  • Great season! He did everything he could to improve as a prospect. I am sure he has earned some attention and has probably climbed the ladder a bit.

    That being said, he is another smallish winger on a team that is laoded with them. He does not have the same skill set as those that are already on the team.

    He would be someone I would be looking at as a tradeable asset. If he continues to improve he may very well make the NHL, but it is doubtful it will be here.

  • RexLibris

    I spent a fair bit of time looking up whatever I could find on Reider back during the CHL playoffs. Some things that stuck out to me were that Reider’s points stayed steady even when his linemate, Mr. Catenacci, was sitting in the penalty box, which was often. He had several shorthanded goals and was referred to by his coach as a force and a steadying influence on that unit.

    He apparently has some good skating technique and has an underrated shot. He is strong as a forechecker and although he is considered “small” as a winger, I don’t think he is in the John Gaudreau range of impishness.

    An eventual line of Lander, Pelss, and Reider could be an absolutely dynamic collection of forechecking, responsible, offensively gifted players. I think of what Detroit did with players like Kris Draper and Kirk Maltby were able to contribute on those deep rosters and have to wonder if the Oilers could find a similar place for prospects like Reider, Pelss, Pitlick, and Khaira.

  • Willis: he is a product of the 2 way hockey factory kitchener.

    As a feb birth this was his 18 year old season he was 4 months younger than Saad who really established himself jan. on with a 1.8PPG in 30 Games.

    You might want to look at rieders game log. he was 1.64PPG in november. Shoulder injury till Jan.20 he was 1.82PPG in 26 games after.

    I look at benchmarks to established players.
    1. 2nd in SHG goals OHL
    2. Lead playoff scoring
    3. Lead rangers in scoring as 18 year old (D. Roy, M. Richards)
    4. voted one of the best Pk fwds in OHL

    For me he sestablished a .7GPG rate by age 18.
    very rare. With his age and production desjardins junior curves say likely a 60-70P fwd with a chance to be a 30G scorer.

    • RexLibris

      I’m assuming this was from my comment. If not, I apologize.

      lol, I’m just trying to stay grounded. You know, not fall into the Kevin “Everybody is Gretzky” Prendergast trap.

      So just this once I’ll let myself indulge in a little glass-half-full optimism about this group.

      I like Reider. I was checking his stats two or three times a day back in March and April even before the CHL playoffs started. I’d love nothing more than for the new CBA rules about 5 year ELCs and 10 years to UFA status to go through so that the Oilers could have a third line of Pelss, Reider and Pitlick. The NHL could reintroduce the red line, the two-line pass, and even ban the forward pass in the offensive zone in an attempt to keep the Oilers in check.

      Throw in Bunz and Roy as goalie 1 and 1A. Marincin and Gernat as the Slovakian Pillars of Hercules, Klefbom and Schultz as our Lidstrom-and-Niedermeyer-lite and then add Bigos, Musil, Petry and Smid, not to mention our top six, and things aren’t just looking rosy, they are downright spectacular.

      I’ll go back to what I said in June: #ReiderForTheCalder2014

      • French Toast Mafia

        You checked his stats 2 or 3 times a day? Hmmm curious… How often did they change between when you checked them in the morning and the afternoon?

        You either have a really bad memory for stats or have absolutely nothing to do during the day.

      • I’m thinking the same thing, if the Slovak Martins turn out (fingers crossed) and can become a dominant duo.(not out of the question by any stretch)

        With Klefbomb looking like a near sure thing.

        It might not be long before the D is the least of our concerns.

  • knee deep in it

    the good thing about prospects like this is that they have trade value beyond where they were drafted. Even if he never plays a game as an Oiler, this is a good news story.

    Eventually, we will be trading a few kids to fill holes. We need guys prospering at the junior / development levels.

  • Oilfan69

    This article is far too focused on points. I watched the OHL semi final and saw Reider play live a few times. He’s certainly a fearless player who lead his team through the playoffs in points and other facets of the game. The fact that Tobias is coming from the hockey factory in Kitchener which produces 2 way players is also a plus. I would say he’s an aggressive 2 way player that has a dImension of creativity in his game. Obviously he can score and create chances when it matters and I believe he will surpass many Oiler prospects and play his way on the roster in a few years.

  • Hemmertime

    Reider a darkhorse whom may surprise and make team . He put up scary numbers in playoffs in 16 games (g-13 ,a-14 for a total of 27 points)-pretty impressive ! At 187 lbs . he must be pretty compact . A right handed left winger whose development is rapidly escalating . Could be a diamond in he rough here . Another elite in the making ? Is his nickname Toby ? Three line offence might see him play this year .

  • Oilfan69

    If you are looking for a comparison think of Eberle with more speed.In his draft year he finished second in speed at OHL all star skills.

    At the oiler development camp they had him paired with Pelss in skills competitions and you could see their speed .

    I watched many ranger games and hilites from their website and this guy buries them much like Ebs.

    At 5ft10 and 185 he is not physical but he is solid on his skates.

    He is a prospect worth watching.

  • dessert1111

    I have heard nothing but great things about this guy this year. Anyone remember the specific worries teams might have had about him for why he dropped so low? I recognize that he didn’t have the outstanding point totals in his draft year, but wasn’t he still adjusting to the North American game? Were his finer skills not yet evident or something? This guy looks like a huge 4th round steal. Here’s hoping he has another great year and entrenches himself into the conversation for NHL employment.

  • dessert1111

    I have seen Reider listed at 5’11” and 190-195 pounds. If he is 5’11” and 205-210 when he hits the NHL should be just fine.

    He is also not a one tool player. According to the Rangers’ website, “. He was also ranked second best penatly killer in the Western Conference Coaches Poll.” If he has a strong two way game, his odds go way up. It would be great if he rounds out into a Mike Richards-lite player.

    I would expect by the time Reider rolls around, Hemsky will be long gone. If Gagner is gone as well (replaced by a six second line centre), then Reider’s odds of making the top also 6 go up.

    He will be interesting to watch. I would be very pleased if he slid onto the third line with MPS on the left side and him on the right.