What should the Edmonton Oilers be willing to trade for Patrik Berglund?

Berglund

The St. Louis Blues are stacked at centre. Paul Stastny and KHL star Jori Lehtera (who looks like he’ll be a top-nine forward immediately) join a group that already had a pretty good quartet in David Backes, Vladimir Sobotka, Patrik Berglund and Max Lapierre.

It’s been suggested that the Blues would probably be very willing to move Berglund. Is he a fit in Edmonton?

The Scoring

Season PTS/60 NHL Rk.
2008-09 1.83 135
2009-10 1.25 290
2010-11 1.76 155
2011-12 1.70 154
2012-13 1.39 221
2013-14 1.72 146

By offence, Berglund isn’t really a second-line centre. On average he scores about 1.6 points per hour at even-strength and places around 183rd among NHL regular forwards in that category. That makes him an exceptional third-liner (which is the role he was in with the Blues), but a decidedly below-average second line player.

Underlying Numbers

Berglund 7.2.14

chart via somekindofninja.com

Decent if unspectacular totals here. Berglund outperformed the team mostly in years where it wasn’t very good, with 2013-14 being the exception to the rule; it’s also worth noting that he’s done much better when spotted in the offensive zone rather than being asked to do defensive zone lifting (no surprise there).

Everything here points to a really good third-line pivot to me. The Blues have been an awfully good team the last few years and Berglund’s been in the range (give or take a little) of what we would expect in terms of Corsi over the last three years.

Other Stuff Worth Noting

57-Perron-8

  • Berglund has some history with David Perronin 2008-09 in particular the pair had a pretty decent run together against good opponents.
  • Berglund’s a nice acquisition in at least two other ways. He just turned 26, so he’s still in the prime years of his career, and at 6’3”, 217 pounds he helps the Oilers with their desire to add size.
  • St. Louis has been a top-10 team on the penalty kill for three consecutive seasons (second in the NHL in 2013-14). Berglund has averaged about 1:30 per game with the Blues shorthanded in each of those three seasons.
  • Berglund’s also been used on the power play, mostly on the second unit, where he posts consistently mediocre point totals but been part of a unit with decent overall effectiveness.
  • Berglund’s faceoff win rate is consistently in the 47 percent range.
  • Looking quickly at the NHL’s real-time stats, Berglund’s not an over-the-top hitter but he does land checks.

Summary

Patrik Berglund is a quality No. 3 centre at even-strength by virtually any measure, adds value on the penalty kill and is probably a replacement-level power play option. Given his age, he’s likely to stay at that level for some time to come. He’s not a good fit for the Oilers’ vacant No. 2 centre position, but is a strong candidate for the No. 3 job and could presumably be asked to play over his head for a season or two (though a contender wouldn’t do it).

The value on that player type fluctuates, but this isn’t a situation where Edmonton should even consider dealing a first round pick. Last year Perron fetched a good young NHL player (Magnus Paajarvi) and a second round pick in trade; Berglund plays centre but not as high up the lineup so a second round pick and a decent prospect would seem a reasonable deal.

St. Louis just added forwards at the draft and has a bunch of good right-shooting defensive prospects, but could use some lefties; the Oilers have a bunch and could certainly move one.

RECENTLY BY JONATHAN WILLIS

  • With only Legwand, Ott, Ribeiro, & Roy left as any kind of NHL type center, MacT may be forced into the proverbial “bold move” to land a second line center.

    Legwand might fit that bill, but we’re not sure what the issue is – it can’t be $$. Does he flat out not want to come to YEG? Want too much term?

    Ott is a #4, and the Oilers are quite happy with Gordon.

    Roy is undersized.

    Ribeiro – who knows what’s with him?

    If he moves Petry or Schultz, he needs anther gap D man to allow the kids another year to develop.

    • Grant

      Legwand is really the only guy that fits the bill as a true number two centre.Vinnie I’m sure won’t come here. Although the youth might invigorate him . Legwand is the guy and I’m shocked he is not gone yet! Unless he’s asking for the moon?

  • Have no reason/idea why you pick Bergland Willis , think we could do well going after Phillies B.Schenn or Couturier . However , I would think of offering Aulie and a 4-6 round draft pick .Gernat , Musil and Simpson I doubt Blues would want as part of any deal for Bergland .

  • Gordie Wayne

    I think be patient and move hall back to center for now c how things go // nuge 2 nd line c let teams come knocking on our door and let it be known thats what were doing otherwise teams want a arm and a leg

  • The Soup Fascist

    I agree that Schenn should be the trade target. If Philly can’t move Lecalvier (NMC and pretty ugly contract), Schenn becomes either 4C or a winger because I don’t think he plays ahead of Couturier.

    They are over $2 million over the cap with two more roster spots to fill (not sure why Pronger’s contract stays with them). The Oilers 2nd in 2015 and a prospect D-man may get it done – especially if the Oil take a dog contract with it and use their remaining compliance buy out.

    Other call worth making IMO is Chicago for Andrew Shaw. They are also $2.5 over the cap and Richards may bump Shaw down the lineup and Kruger can likely play 3C. I know they would like to make some room for Mark McNeill.

    Shaw is small but he is a huge P.I.A to play against. He would be a great pickup, IMO.

    Neither Shaw or Schenn have NMC.

    • Dockstaff

      I like Shaw for 3C, he may be small but the size of the fight in him makes up for it. I don’t remember what his draw % is though?

      Really though we need to find a 2C and all the names I’ve read so far don’t cut it, Bergland however is the best so far, or Coutourier.

      • The Soup Fascist

        I understand the size issue but he was 2C in Chicago for the bulk of last year, IIRC.

        If he can play in Chicago’s top six ……

        I would love Couturier but I just don’t see Philly parting with him unless the offer is excessive. He is a bargain capwise …. and boy, do they need bargains.

  • Gordie Wayne

    A little off topic (OK, way off topic), but as I was browsing through other teams depth charts hunting for potential Oiler trade targets, I immediately felt better when I came across Toronto’s depth chart. It is TERRIBLE!

    They have a top line and pretty much nothing else…LOL! Love it!!!!

    I was wondering who was going to be last place next year…might have to put my money on the center of the universe.

  • deantime419

    Berglund or Sobotka would be great trade targets.

    Don’t think the Blues HAVE to move either though as a lot of their centers can play wing and they will want to roll 3 very strong lines regardless.
    They’re a bit tight on cap space, and re-signing Schwartz and Sobotka might mean they need to shed MPS (wouldn’t be difficult).
    Because they don’t NEED to clear cap space or a roster spot like they did with Perron, it might cost us more than a 2nd and our b-level prospects. I don;t think we will give up our first, but maybe STL would do it for 2 2nds and a Lander/Pitlick/Musil?

  • Spoils

    what about Derek Stepan? 2nd line now, 3rd line later.

    Hall – RNH – Ebs
    Perron – Stepan – Purcell
    Poulliot – Gordon – Hendricks
    Arco – Neon Leon – Yak City
    (soft minutes, PP, o-zone starts)
    Gazdic/Joensu/Pitlick/Lander

    why not give up a bit more to fill the position with someone who will work really well long term?
    what do we need to give up for that?

  • Quicksilver ballet

    Berglund straight up for Fasth would be close. Blues do need another goaltender after losing Miller.

    Fasth and Musil for Bergy? Something should happen soon on this 2nd LC front. Appears to be a number of teams desperate for cap space. The Flyers,Bruins and the Hawks, all ripe for the picking. Rather have Couturier, but beggars can’t be choosers.

    • pkam

      The problem with Couturier is he is a bargain in Flyers so how does it help their cap problem by trading away Couturier?

      Now please tell me which NHL player in the Oilers roster is a bargain except Hall? Eberle and RNH contracts are okay but not cheap.

      Unless it is a package with some of their overpaid players, I just don’t see it happening.

  • Quicksilver ballet

    I find it scary that people think Arcabello is the answer.

    Maybe for 10 games he is. I hope MacT pulls something out of his hat here. I don’t know who the answer is but there must be someone he can get with more experience.

    Bergland, Legwand,Tradsie’s.

  • Cubro

    If we can’t find a center a good option would be too move hall to center. He is a dominant player in the league and should be able to handle the load. Similar. To what the old oil did with messier.

  • Cowbell_Feva

    No thanks to Berglund. Of the many Oiler organisational bad habits that I am fed-up with, the biggest pain in my azz is constantly playing guys out of position. “Oh *insert name here* is a #4 dman, or #3 center on team X so that means #1 dman or #2 center on our team”.

    Bull crap!

    The #2 center for the Oilers should be a player who would be a #2 center for the Blackhawks, Rangers, Ducks, etc. The #1 or #2 defenceman for the Oilers should be a player who would be the #1 or #2 defencemean for the Blackhawks, Rangers, Ducks, etc.

    To the Oilers brass: Get it? Got it? Good!

    They will never be a competetive Western Conference team until they start acting like one as opposed to treating other teams cast-off’s like the answer to the Oilers prayers.

  • Thumby

    Yes it would be nice getting players to play in there positions but we still have a hard time getting players to come to e town so wake up yourself hence y some guys r overpaid or dont u c that u cant be out there begging and pleading players anyways I think trade yak and petry for Brayden schenn and colburn and yes we might have to throw a pick in as well and yes we have to take on there big contracts or boston boychuk and the number 1 centerman in the league lol at faceoffs anyway lol

  • Cowbell_Feva

    The consensus seems to be that Petry is our number 1 d-man.
    I am not spinning yarn when I would wager that all but 5 or 6 nhl teams, would not even employ Petry if they had him as an option.
    He scares the living shiat out of me everytime he has the puck, and I cheer inside when he gets it out of the defending end without getting picked off.

    I think we can all agree the front end is coming together, but like Rex said, we need to make this D come together as well.

  • Grant

    I would be interest in getting Berguld He would add to the size factor which is missing for the Oilers. Perron had career year playing outside of the blues defense system so maybe Berguld can do that also.

  • Grant

    Willis : Seeing as you and Oilers On Whyte have mentioned Bergland , is this viewed as long term addition or short term ? Short term I would not mind seeing LeCavalier whom I feel would be better than Arco or Landers for that matter . LeCavalier Philly can’t get rid of and would cost minimal to obtain . Would Bergland be worth giving up much for in contrast ? Oiler on Whyte says they may want a first round pick for Bergland and I hope we do not give them that .

  • Cowbell_Feva

    Berglund is a #2 centerman….period.
    I dont care what advanced stats say. The guy is a load that Edmonton desperately needs up the middle and would more than fill the hole left by Gagner. He would chip in offensively, but more importantly, keep the puck out of his own net.
    Tack on PP and PK icetime and he would be a great pickup at 26 years of age.
    However, as mentioned on this site, it is the blueline that is the issue again heading into next season. MacT has made some moves, but adding 5,6,7 guys to a team full of 5,6,7’s isnt going to change a whole lot. Mediocre upgrades at best.

    And to whoever said Kesler didnt fetch anything as a return??
    Two immediate roster players in Sbisa and Bonino (who both looked great in the playoffs) plus a 1st rounder isn’t a return?? Keslers best days are behind him and hasn’t exactly been the model of health and consistentcy lately…..