GDB 49.0: The McDavid Bowl

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Tonight’s matchup vs. the Buffalo Sabres pits the 30th (Sabres) and 29th (Oilers) place teams in the NHL. Many are calling it the McDavid Bowl, but players in both dressing rooms are not nearly as excited about that as fans in Edmonton or Buffalo.

Neither teams wants to be in this situation, and no self-respecting NHL player will try to lose on purpose just so their team has a better chance at drafting 1st overall this coming June. The way these teams are playing there is a good chance many players from both lineups won’t be in the NHL next season, so they sure won’t try and lose to land McDavid.

The harsh reality, however, is that these are clearly two of the worst teams in the league and one of them is guaranteed to finish 30th.

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The Oilers have 33 points, while the Sabres have 31 with both having played 48 games. Edmonton is on pace for 56 points, while Buffalo might reach 53.

The Oilers have picked up 12 points (5-5-2) over their last 12 games, while the Sabres have zero points in their previous 12 games. They have lost 12 consecutive games in regulation.

The Sabres are terrible right now.

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They have been outshot in 42 of their 48 games this season. They have outshot their opponents only three times all year, and tied them three other times.

During this 12-game drought they have been outshot 394-253, an average of 32.8 to 21.1, and  they have been outscored 53-17.

The Oilers outshot them 52-31 in their first meeting on November 7th. The Sabres are really bad, and regardless of what happens tonight, it will be incredibly difficult for the Oilers to finish below them in the standings.

The Oilers are not a competitive team, but they are better than the Sabres, and the only way I see the Oilers drafting Connor McDavid is if they win the lottery on Tuesday April 14th.

LINEUP

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The only change will be Ben Scrivens in goal. Taylor Hall is still day-to-day with a bone bruise.

QUICK HITS

  • It is not very often that the Oilers are the favourite heading into a game. The Sabres likely look at Edmonton as their best chance to end this 12-game losing streak. The Oilers need the first goal to avoid giving the fragile Sabres any confidence.
  • I never liked the salary or term of the Nikitin signing, I would have preferred one year, but I liked the idea of bringing in a veteran so they wouldn’t rush both Klefbom and Marincin. Nikitin was beyond bad up until the past few games. He has played decent the past few games and at least isn’t a trainwreck all over the ice. It doesn’t make the signing any better, but at least he’s looked like a capable D-men the past few games.
  • The forwards need to do a better job of finishing. I notice everyone gets upset when a forward or D-man makes a defensive mistake, but when they miss the net or don’t capitalize on a great scoring chance it is rarely noted. The job of top-six forwards is to produce and last game Teddy Purcell, Jordan Eberle and Benoit Pouliot all missed great chances in the third period. They need to focus and score on those opportunities. I realize scoring is the hardest thing to do in the NHL, but they are paid to score. All of the top-six forwards need to be better finishing and even creating scoring chances.
  • Radek Dvorak retired after 17 seasons in the NHL earlier this week. He was on my show yesterday and told a great story about his rookie season in Florida, when they made their magical run to the Stanley Cup Finals complete with rats being thrown on the ice after every goal.

    “I was one of only three guys in the room. Scottie (Mellanby) was taping his stick, and
    the big rat ran in, and Scottie just reacted with a swing (laughs). He got it with one swing and then the story got out and the plastic rats were everywhere,” said Dvorak.

    “The rats during the game were crazy. Some games were four hours due to all the
    rats on the ice (laughs), but the atmosphere was incredible. It was so different than anything I’d experienced in Czech Republic.”

    When I asked Dvorak what was the highlight of his career he surprised me with his answer. He said it was being drafted in Edmonton. “When I got to go up to the podium and put on the Panthers jersey it was a dream come true. It meant so much to me.”

    It was refreshing to hear that. Usually we hear about a game or a run to the Stanley Cup, but Dvorak was always a very humble man when he played, and hearing him tell that story of his draft you could tell that moment still meant a lot almost 20 years later.

    Good luck in retirement.

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…

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From Die by the Blade

I’m always fascinated when two really bad teams play each other – sometimes you get boring, mistake-prone hockey, but sometimes, bad defense and goaltending can actually make for some of the most fun games to watch. Which will it be tonight, a slog through the trough of awfulness, or a back-and-forth nailbiter?

TONIGHT….

UFC

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers win, because the Sabres are simply a very bad hockey team. 4-1 Edmonton.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: We will see the most empty seats of any game this season. Fans will not be flocking to Rexall to watch this game, but it will still be announced as a sellout. I don’t buy for a moment that all the empty seats are paid for, but not filled by disgruntled season ticket holders. Unless the Oilers are buying all the leftover seats, these games aren’t sold out. At some point the Oilers will need to admit the games are not 100% sold out.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: I was a game early in my prediction about Anton Lander scoring. The Swede scores tonight as does Oscar Klefbom.

CRAIG’S ON IT…

CraigsOnIt

You have to love the creativity coming out of Nation HQ during another forgettable Oilers season.  Check out the ‘Craig’s On It’ shirts that will be released on the NationGear Store over the weekend.  These are classic.  Keep your eyes on the store for the launch.

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  • Quicksilver ballet

    Contrary to the fancy stats Mr. Gregor would have you believe. Being outshot in 43 of 48 games and handily outscored in the goals for and against department. Buffalo has it easily over the Oilers where it matters most. In the wins department. The Sabres have 14 wins compared to the Oilers lowest win total in the league being 12. Don’t buy what Jason is pushing on you.

    It is far from clear as to who deserves the title guaranteed win night label this evening. The 29th place team with their best player out of the lineup compared to the 30th place team who leads the Oilers in the stats that really matter department.

    Suppose this could just be Jason whipping the masses into a frenzy/playing ship disturber, promoting the idea the Oiler faithful are entitled to a win this evening. If the Oil do fall short this evening, it certainly will make for a more passionate show tomorrow.

    GO SABRES!

  • Prongers Promises

    Our best chance at last place left with Eakins……….under Nelson we will not come close to landing either Mcdavid or Eichel.

    My prediction or hunch is we will be drafting fourth or fifth……..which means we will still be getting a great player.

    Let’s stop with all the McDavid articles…….it’s not going to happen!

  • Batfink

    “The Oilers are not a competitive team, but they are better than the Sabres”

    Where does this myth come from? Oilers have 12 points in last 12 games and the sabres have 0 in last twelve. Meaning that 12 games ago the oilers were 10 points behind them. The sabres have 2 more wins, if it wasn’t for loser points the sabres would be 4 points ahead of the oilers.

    To say the oilers are better than the sabres is wishful thinking.

    • Zarny

      Buffalo currently ranks:

      Points – Last

      Goals For – Last

      Goals Against – Last

      Goal Differential – Last

      PP % – Last

      PK % – Last

      Shots per game – Last

      Shots against per game – Last

      FO % – Last

      The Sabres are undoubtedly the worst team in the league this year.

    • Jason Gregor

      Maybe it is because the Sabres have been outscored 170-84…The Oilers are bad, but aren’t are only -50 in goal differential, not -86.

      Then go look at shots for and against. Buffalo has been outshot 1680-1102, while the Oilers have been outshot 1420-1340..

      There is not one statistic that points to Edmonton being worse. Buffalo is the only team I can accurately say is worse than the Oilers.

      • Andresito

        Sure if you wanna use fancy stats, but they have 2 more wins than the oilers. If it wasnt for the loser point the oilers would be below them.

        With a sabres win tonight the oilers can talk about how much better their goals against are or shots are but the bottom line is they’ll be tied in the standing and buffalo will have 3 more wins.

        Lets just say they both suck and edmonton is hopefully better because they have 3 first overalls and been rebuilding forever

  • Bucknuck

    Last time I remember this much hullabaloo for a player before he was drafted was a guy named Eric Lindros. As good as he was, he still didn’t get Philly a cup.

    So I don’t give a damn about McDavid. I want the Oilers to crush the Sabres tonight. 8-2

    Yak gets a pair… finally.

  • Mike Krushelnyski

    Going to my first game of the season tonight!

    I’ve turned down free tickets a couple of times this year, but I couldn’t turn down free luxury box tickets. I’m not made of stone.

    • Bucknuck

      Well, you could buy into the propaganda and spend your time/money watching something that is a waste of both and built on a foundation of lies.

      Or you could just suck it up and watch the Oilers.

  • T.J.F.M.

    Buffalo is worse. True.

    Oilers suck, generally speaking. But Oilers suck more against suckier teams. Oilers lose, likely by one goal. Likely Nikitins fault… or Schultz. That guy is terrible. Not once this year have we said or thought “what a great game by Schultz”