GUSTERLY OESTERLE

oesterle williams

Every once in awhile I will think about Jordan Oesterle’s season and project him onto the Oilers roster in 2016-17. He is advancing as a prospect, you know. He has learned his lessons in the AHL, the wobbly bits are less a part of his everyday game—and that brilliant footspeed shines like a diamond.

The problem with projecting him is this: He is a lefty, and Edmonton has so many—too many—at both the NHL and AHL level. How does a prospect like Oesterle make it to the NHL?

I am (in general) convinced Oesterle can help an NHL team in a depth (first recall) role. Now, today. Let’s take a look at his NHL numbers and then look at his minor league totals.

WAR ON ICE PLAYER CHART

edm defense war on ice

This is via War-on-Ice, a couple of notes:

  • Oesterle is in the ‘less sheltered’ quadrant (Brad Hunt is getting the soft parade, look at him over there lollygagging!)
  • He is not playing the toughest competition (Klefbom is) and he is not taking the most own-zone starts in the portion of his shifts that begin with a faceoff (Klefbom, Fayne and Sekera are).
  • The color of his bubble is almost blue. Oesterle posted a Corsi for 5×5 percentage of 48.6—49.5 when he was playing away from Griffin Reinhart. Source
  • He did and does play RH side.
  • He posted an 0.83 5×5 points-per-60 total, No. 3 on the Oilers (in a small sample). Source
  • He is younger than Joey Laleggia (by one day) and Brandon Davidson.
  • He is a fast train.
  • War-on-Ice

This is all in very few games (17, 0-5-5) but there is a story here and that is important. Peter Chiarelli will eventually cull the herd (he WILL, right?) and the best lefties should rise to the top of the leftorium. Based on his recall, one would have to rank Oesterle ahead of at least some of his AHL defensive mates. Let’s have a look at the AHL numbers.

Even-Strength Scoring

  1. Jordan Oesterle 0.395 points-per-game
  2. Brad Hunt 0.339 
  3. Dillon Simpson 0.304
  4. Griffin Reinhart 0.300
  5. Joey Laleggia 0.274
  6. Darnell Nurse 0.222
  7. David Musil 0.182
  8. Ben Betker 0.143
  9. Nick Pageau 0.143
  10. Martin Gernat 0.111

That is a good sign for Oesterle. He doesn’t get the power-play time that wizard Brad Hunt gets, but at evens has the edge. We don’t have TOI estimates, but Hunt gets his share. Interesting to see Simpson—a player not generally regarded as being an offensive type—showing fairly well here. As an aside, the top number among regular AHL blue this season? TJ Brennan, 0.696.

Estimated Points-per-60

I love the site AHL.Prospects-Stats.com (link below) because they estimate time-on-ice. Using all disciplines, we get an idea about defensive scoring by player. Remember, this includes all situations, EV, PP and PK.

  1. Brad Hunt 2.003
  2. Jordan Oesterle 1.707
  3. Joey Laleggia 1.336
  4. Griffin Reinhart 1.216
  5. Dillon Simpson 1.205
  6. Darnell Nurse 0.884
  7. David Musil 0.735
  8. Nick Pageau 0.665
  9. Ben Betker 0.630
  10. Martin Gernat 0.413
  11. AHL Prospects

Hunt ends up first overall, but his PP points edge (21-7) over Oesterle skews this number. At evens, the best offensive defender on the team appears to be Oesterle.

COMMENTS

  • Andrew Ference after Oesterle’s first NHL game in 2014-15: “He was really, really good. He
    had great composure, fantastic skating ability, he was so calm. I
    remember my first game, I didn’t want to touch the puck and he’s
    handling and skating up the ice really well and making great plays. It
    was very impressive.”
    Source
  • Gerry Fleming in February (via Bob Stauffer via Jon Willis): “Over the last six weeks Jordan Oesterle has been by far our
    best defenceman overall. His positioning defensively, his ability to skate the
    puck out of trouble, his ability to make plays both defensively and offensively
    has really elevated our defensive core as a group.”
    Source

FUTURE

oilers defense depth lefty-righty

I have Oesterle No. 8 among the LHD here, but Ference and Nikitin are unlikely to play in the coming season for the Oilers or Condors. Injuries to Oscar Klefbom and Brandon Davidson during this season could be factors at the beginning of next season, and the rest of the depth chart behind Andrej Sekera is very young.

I am inclined to think Oesterle has a reasonable chance to play a significant number of games in the NHL this coming season with the Oilers. Agree? (Photo by Mark Williams)

Previously in this series:

  • YakCity1039

    We have one half of our top pairing (Klefbom)*. Just need another to pair with him, and another Dman to pair with Sekera and we’re pretty set.

    *http://public.tableau.com/shared/GPJN9XKM5?:display_count=yes

  • oilers1168

    It is starting to appear that it will be difficult to get 3 RHD better than Fayne. I feel we need to start expanding our search that includes LHD that prefers to paly on the right hand side.

  • Moe Sizzlack

    4th overall and Oesterle for Tyler Myers … Gives jets cap space to sign Trouba (who will be 2nd RHD behind Big buff) & Also gives them #2 and #4 picks who will both be protected in the expansion draft

      • Jack Dupp

        Me either. The most I’d pay for Myers is a 2nd next year, Reinhardt and Yakupov.
        For those that think it’s too much, think cap and the 50 man roster.

      • #1 overall waivers pick

        Offer this years 4th overall and next years 1st (two first-round picks and a second-rounder round pick) to the Sabres for Ristolainen.

        The trade would be similar to the Kessel for picks trade.

        Bufalo is hosting the draft. They would have this years 4th and 8th pick. They could end up drafting a powerfoward and a very good yound D-man.

        Ristolainen would instantly be the Oilers best D-man and he is only 21 years old. He would play over 20 mins a night and qb the power play.

        Plus he’s not injury prone like Klefbom.

      • Moe Sizzlack

        Well we ain’t getting Weber, Doughty or Karlsson …

        Myers is 6’7 for the WEST also shoots RIGHT and can play top pairing minutes beside Kleffbom ..

        • Randaman

          Don’t waste your breath. Most people on here actually think Yak is worth something. The Russian management team don’t think so and TMac doesn’t want him but hey what do they know.

          • MattyFranchise

            With the way the market is right now, there is no way in hell a team like the Oilers is getting Myers WITHOUT giving up the 4th.

            This is amazing to me, some hockey fans want to have their cake and eat it too. You gotta give to get in this League.

            Think of Winnipeg’s stance. What would it take for them to give up their second best defenseman? They’re gonna want the 4th. There’s no way around it.

          • Moe Sizzlack

            Buddy, he’s 26 years old (Atleast 5 more Elite years).. Puts up 30 pts, he’s 6 foot 7, SHOOTS RIGHT, can fight and defend our young skilled forwards ..

            What more do you want ? Jacob Trouba would be The Oilers top Right side Dman forsure and Myers has more value to the Jets then Trouba does..

            How about when the wild gave up on a Young Burns and got back Setoguchi ?

            it’s only a proposal, it’s probably 90% NOT going to happen, don’t get your panties in a bunch

          • JimmyV1965

            Definitely think Myers is worth the 4th and he would help the team bigtime. There’s just so many other RHDs I would target ahead of him. Jets are going to be scary good very soon.

        • JimmyV1965

          I’m just not sure what Myers is. Other then his rookie year, he’s never put up good numbers, that includes junior. He’s not overly physical for a big man. He’s just kinda blah.

        • Moe Sizzlack

          Exactly!… Name a legit number 1 everyone laughs and says it (4th pick) ain’t enough

          Name a legit number2 “right handed” that is number 1 (on a oilers blueline)

          And we’re giving up too much (#4 overall)

          Chia has his work cut out for him to please “OILERSNATION”

          • Moe Sizzlack

            Kleffbom- Myers on one line Sekera- and a older, stronger Nurse on the other

            That’s ALOT of go go gadget poke Cheks between Nurse and Myers Wing spans

          • Admiralmark

            The problem with your suggestion is Myers is NOT a 1st pairing D man. He’s a weak 2nd pair. So no I wouldnt give up the 4th overall for him. But of course i’d give up 4th overall for an actual 1st pair RHD. Chiarelli would too. Myers is waaay waaay overated by some that have not followed hockey since his rookie year.

    • hemmertime

      This is crazy talk…Oesterle is way undersized to be an effective Dman aside from a PP specialist which I have doubts he can be.

      The number of people giving up on Reinhart is astonishing.

    • Lowetide

      Well, Ference is likely for LTIR and Nikitin won’t be back unless Edmonton wants Nolan Patrick. After that, I think Reinhart and Musil are blocked a little. Combine those four names with Brad Hunt and Adam Pardy, and that is quite the cull!

  • OilCan2

    T J Brennan. Nice numbers. Trade target?

    Osterle has given himself a legit shot at making the NHL roster.

    PC is going after at least two NHL D ( +1G) this summer so,….

  • The Last Big Bear

    We have one half of our top pairing (Klefbom)*. Just need another to pair with him, and another Dman to pair with Sekera and we’re pretty set.

    “Just”.

    Lol.

  • madjam

    Real nice to see a value contract in Oesterle trending so well , but disturbing he is passing Nurse and Reinhart whom are not showing all that well . Maybe Oilers might be tempted to make one or both of the underachievers as trade bait , seeing as both have hefty bonus clauses .

  • The Goalie 1976

    I’d give the 4th for Trouba straight up but not Myers.

    I’d still be interested in Myers, but if Winnipeg is insisting on the 4th it would have to be multiple pieces going both ways to even it out.

    • who

      So you think the Jets value Trouba more than Myers. I doubt Winnipeg feels that way. Myers had a great rookie season in Buffalo than regressed for the next two years. Not unusual for a young dman. He’s been good since traded to Winnipeg. I watch a lot of Jets games because they are an entertaining team and from what I’ve seen I would consider Myers a top pairing dman who is stuck behind Buff on that team. He is not overly physical for his size but he doesn’t need to be because he has that great reach and he is a tremendous skater. He also handles the puck well and can carry it through the neutral zone. Doesn’t get the points that Buff gets but only plays on the second PP unit.

  • HardBoiledOil 1.0

    Oesterle could be trade bait. he and Reinhart *might* be good pieces in a trade package. what we really need is a couple of good veteran RD, no more kids on the blueline, we have more than enough back there and won’t be winning jack until we properly address what we need on the back end!

  • madjam

    So far nothing new to get excited about other than current youth making big strides going into next year . Not sold we can get anything of value to move Yakupov , as per his request . There is the draft , but we still do not know if they’ll even keep that . Optimism for next season seems to be on hold for now .

  • The Last Big Bear

    I was just writing a post about the d-man trade market this season, when my phone auto-corrected “Phaneuf” into “alpha dud”.

    It might take me a while to clean up all this coffee.

  • TKB2677

    A defense core that has Osterle as anything more than a 6-7 dman isn’t a good defense core in my opinion. While I liked what I saw in some of the things he does, Osterle screams what has plagued the Oilers for years. He’s a player that does a lot of things OK but nothing great and he’s small.

    At 23 years old and 182lbs, he’s as big as he’s going to get, so he will have problems with one on one battles, problems in front of his net, problems in the corners. He’s got good hockey sense but at his size, how good of a defender can you be if you lose so many battles. He’s got NO shot and so I wonder how much offense he can generate with no shot. If it is a situation where its either Ference or Osterle, I will of course take Osterle because Ference can’t skate but if Osterle is in the Oilers top 6 at the start of the season, I wonder if their defense is good enough.

    • hemmertime

      Can’t agree more. Oesterle has some nice mobility and confidence with the puck but he is ineffective as a defender at the NHL level. Nice feel-good story but can’t cut it in the NHL.

  • McPucker

    That depth chart is depressing.

    The left side, I like Klefbom, Nurse and Davidson but two of them shouldn’t be a top 4 going into next season.

    The right side, If Gryba or Fayne is your top dman, you need to bring at least 3 more. Maybe 4.

    I hope PC and company are seriously scouting the world’s in Russia right now.