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Photo Credit: James Guillory/USA TODAY Sports

Can Oilers win Cup with McDavid’s cap hit?

According to Ryan Rishaug and Elliotte Friedman, Connor McDavid’s new contract will be eight years with a $13.25 million cap hit. He will have the largest cap hit in the NHL, a 21.2% increase over Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews’ hit of $10.5 million.

It is a massive contract and the reported $106 million total is the 3nd largest in NHL history. Shea Weber’s 14-year deal was worth a total of $110 million, but his cap hit is $7.85 million, while Alex Oveckin has the highest at $124 over 13 years. You can’t sign a player for longer than eight years now.

The main question in Oilersnation is how will McDavid’s cap hit impact the Oilers’ chances of winning the Stanley Cup?

Having McDavid on the team gives the Oilers an advantage over most teams, but in the NHL you need depth and very good complementary players to win.

This past season McDavid played 21:07/game in the regular season and 22:24 in the playoffs. He’ll be on the ice 35-37% of the game. He can impact the game more in those minutes than most players, but the other 63-65% of the time the Oilers will need a good supporting cast if they hope to hoist the Cup sometime in the next nine seasons.

His new salary will undoubtedly impact Peter Chiarelli and how he constructs his team, but is a $13.25 million cap hit detrimental to winning?

Here is a quick look at the highest cap hit on recent Stanley Cup winning teams.

2017: Evgeni Malkin $9.5 million. 13% of salary cap ($73 million)
2016: Evgeni Malkin $9.5 million. 13.3% of salary cap. ( $71.4 million)
2015: Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews $6.3 mill. 9.1% of salary cap ($69 million)
2014: Drew Doughty $7 million. 10.8% of salary cap. ($64.3 million)
2013: Kane or Toews $6.3 million. 10.5% of salary cap. **(cap was said to be $60 million, but could spend to $70.2 prorated due to lockout)
2012: Doughty $7 million. 10.8% of salary cap. ($64.3 million)
2011: Zdeno Chara $7.5 million. 12.6% of salary cap. ($59.4 million)
2010: Brian Campbell $7.142 million. 12.6% of salary cap. ($56.8 million)
2009: Sidney Crosby $8.7 million. 15.3% of salary cap. (56.7 million)

Crosby had the highest individual % in 2009. Since reports of McDavid’s new deal broke, many have compared it to Crosby’s 2nd contract and how they are similar in percentage of the salary cap at the time. When Crosby signed his new deal his percentage of the team’s cap was 17.3% and McDavid’s is 17.6%. So, yes that is accurate, however, I think it is a bit misleading. We are unlikely to see a similar increase in the cap after the deals were signed. The Oilers would need a massive increase for McDavid’s percentage to be similar to Crosby’s when the 2017/2018 season begins.

When Crosby signed his extension on July 10th, 2007 the salary cap for the 2007/2008 season was $50.3 million. It jumped to $56.7 million (a 12.7% increase) for the 2008/2009 season when Crosby’s deal kicked in. In order for McDavid’s contract to have a similar 15.3% of the total cap next season, the cap will need to come in at $86 million. A whopping $11 million increase from this year. To date the largest one season increase for the salary cap was $6.4 million. I’d be stunned if we see that large of an increase.

But one player doesn’t win the Cup, great teams win it. I think it helps to look at the core of a team and their salaries to see how Cup winners succeed under a salary cap.

CORE CAP HITS

Jan 21, 2017; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) celebrates his goal with teammates against the Calgary Flames during the second period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

The 2017 Penguins had Malkin, Crosby, Phil Kessel, Marc-Andre Fleury/Matt Murray and Kris Letang as their core five players. Letang was injured for the playoffs, but he was their #1 defender and they managed to acquire Ron Hainsey at the deadline to fill in admirably at a very low price. The Penguins were also unique because Murray and Fleury split time in the playoffs, but both were on the cap, so I will use Fleury’s number because he, like Letang, was one of their core guys to start their back-to-back Cup runs.

This past season those core five players totalled $38 million in cap space. They made up 52% of the Penguins’ overall cap.

In 2016 they had the same $38 million in cap space. They ate up 53.2% of the Penguins’ cap.

The 2015 Blackhawks had a larger core of Kane, Toews, Duncan Keith, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Brent Seabrook and Cory Crawford. Those seven totaled $41.3 million, which equaled $59.8% of the salary cap. Some would argue Niklas Hjalmarsson should be included, so add him and it jumps to $45.4 million and 65.8% of the cap.

The 2014 LA Kings had Doughty, Jonathan Quick, Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown and Slava Voynov. Those five totaled $28.9 million, which was 49.8% of the cap. The Kings were a very deep team. Only one forward, Kyle Clifford, averaged fewer than 12:16 TOI/game in the playoffs in 2014. They also acquired Marian Gaborik at the deadline, but only had to pay a small portion of his total cap.

The 2013 Hawks had the same main seven, but Crawford was on a cheaper contract. Those seven combined for $38 million. The lockout season is tough to compare due to games played, as well as the $60 million cap, but remember they could spend up to $72 million pro-rated. I prefer just going with $64 million because that was the cap hit of 2012 and 2014. If we go by $64 million then those seven were 59% of the total cap.

The 2012 Kings had Doughty, Quick and Kopitar as their three stars. Mike Richards and Dustin Brown were their other main players. Those five totaled $24.52 million and only 38.1% of the cap. They added Carter at the trade deadline, but he only cost $1.3 million against the cap. They were a three-line team in the playoffs. Colin Fraser, Jordan Nolan and Brad Richardson played between seven and eight minutes a game. They had Quick on a very cheap second contract, $1.8 million and other solid contributors.

The 2011 Bruins had Chara, Tim Thomas, Patrice Bergeron, Milan Lucic, Dennis Seidenberg and David Krejci. Those six combined for $28.3 million, or 47.6% of the cap. Brad Marchand had a huge playoffs with 19 points. He only had 41 in the regular season in the final year of his ELC.

The 2010 Hawks had Brian Campbell and Hossa on big deals, but Kane and Toews were on their ELC. Keith, Seabrook and Sharp were on their second deals at $1.4, $3.5 and $3.9 million, respectively.  Those seven added up to $27.8 million or 49% of the cap.

The 2009 Penguins had Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, Gonchar and Staal. They won on the backs of Malkin and Crosby. Those two had 36 and 31 points each, respectively. Bill Guerin was third with 15 points. Those five totalled $24.73 million which equaled 43.6% of the cap.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

January 25, 2017; Anaheim, CA, USA; Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) moves in for a shot on goal against the defense of Anaheim Ducks defenseman Cam Fowler (4) during the third period at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Chicago had a great core, larger than most teams, and not surprisingly they ate up a large chunk of the overall salary cap. Pittsburgh won the past two seasons with five players eating up 52% and 53% of the cap. We must keep in mind that Crosby is on a 12-year contract. Those aren’t valid anymore, and that gives the Penguins a lot of cap flexibility because he has a lower cap hit. His first eight years of the deal would have him at a $10.8 million cap hit. So even if we factor in the extra $2 million, their core’s percentage of the total cap would have 54.7% this year and 56% last year.

Every team is built differently. The Kings had a lot of depth, and were more defence focused, but it is interesting to note that since 2013 the percentage of money from the core is higher than it was between 2009-2012. If that trend continues, then the Oilers will have some more room to pay their core, as long as they can secure a dominant group.

The most difficult aspect to factor into the equation of winning is experience. Would the Penguins have been able to win without Letang if most of their blueliners hadn’t played in the pressure cooker of the 2016 Cup run? I do believe having been there a year earlier allowed them to not panic as much as teams who hadn’t already won or been involved in a long playoff run. It is impossible to track, but I believe it is a factor.

So what will it mean for the Oilers moving forward?

The salary cap his risen by about $2 million dollars over the past three seasons. It was $69 million in 2015, $71.4 million in 2016, $73 million this past year and it will be $75 million next season.

So let’s say the cap will be $77 million when McDavid’s contract begins in 2018/2019.

McDavid’s new deal would take up 17.2% of the cap, but can their core group come in around 53%, which would be $40 million?

Leon Draisaitl’s new deal will play a major factor. For fun, let’s say he is at $7.5 million. (Of course he could get +8million plus)
Cam Talbot will be in the final year of his deal in 2018/2019 making $4.16 million.
Milan Lucic and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are at $6 million each.  (I think will be very hard to keep RNH with McDavid and Draisaitl extensions)
Oscar Klefbom is at $4.16 million and Andrej Sekera is at $5.5 million.

Those seven total $46.57 million, which would be 60% of a $77 million salary cap.

I presume in 2019/2020 Talbot will get a raise, so even if the cap goes up $2 million, Talbot’s new deal would likely take most of it.

Is that core of seven strong enough to be the foundation to challenge, and ultimately win, a Stanley Cup over the next four season?

McDavid’s new contract is massive, and with him on the roster the Oilers will be a contender, but such a large cap hit eating up a large chunk of the salary cap percentage will make it a bit more difficult to win the Stanley Cup.

Far from impossible, but in the future the Oilers will need to find some players who outperform their contracts. General manager Peter Chiarelli has put a lot of pressure on himself to ensure he finds good value contracts moving forward and doesn’t have any “dead weight” contracts.

But the best news for the Edmonton Oilers and their fans is McDavid will be skating in Edmonton for at least another nine seasons. From a business perspective it makes sense. From an entertainment standpoint is a great deal for Oilersnation.

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  • LordVallko

    Overpay, he did ok in the playoffs and that’s all, now Leon for a following discusting, no Stanley for this poorly run franchise with McD eating all the cap and Todd reacting to smarter coaches. I hate this team, stupid move, trade him to buffalo for eikel and ristolynen, after that sh*t deal, I could care less about the spelling. Who wants to bet the oil don’t win Stanley as long as McDollars and Todd are ruining the show. I’m giving 3 to 1 odds and hearing crickets.

    • MaxBoost

      I think i should trash this???? Can anybody translate from Dumbassese? Where’s Ken Bone when you need him? Sorry pal but if you want to be a troll at least try to be coherent.

        • Oilerchild77

          I eatch hockey. In fact, I bet I’ve seen more than you have Vallko. Coaching is the difference between an organization that develops talent and one that doesn’t. Coaching is the difference between a team that has good players and one that uses good players properly. Coaching is also one of the things players consider before signing on with a team. If they don’t like the coach, they probably don’t sign with that team.

          Before making smart ass comments, you really need to consider what you’re saying. Todd McLellan is one of the best coaches in the NHL, whether you think so or not.

          • LordVallko

            Todd is terrible head coach, may be a fantastic assistant coach, but head, no way. He sucks at line matching, he sucks at challenges, his win loss is better away than at home. That alone proves other coaches are better especially when home ice advantage is a disadvantage, think about it. And who loses a 3 goal lead in the last 3 minutes of a majore playoff game, geez. Todd and Company, that’s who. You are wrong and time will prove it, mark my words, every year of Todd is a wasted year of McDollars. This team will never win a Stanley cup with Todd as the coach, again I am giving 3 to 1 odds and hearing crickets. PS, I’m older than Don Cherry, how can you have seen more of anything than I, ha.

  • Bagged Almond Milk

    When can Lucic be traded? I still think it was a good signing, but after a couple more years, I think he will have done everything he could have for this team

  • KMA

    IMO Connor left money on the table. He is worth $15M or 20% of the total team payroll. Ideally his annual salary would increase to maintain the maximum allowable each year in relation to the cap. The Oil definitely under valued him and Connor gave them a discount. Surprised his agent didn’t push him for the max.

    • NoBuBlackOPS

      How did the oil undervalue him when there going to pay him 13+ mil a year. By your logic I guess Pittsburgh undervalued Crosby. I guess Washington undervalued OV? It’s a pretty ridiculous statement to make a player is undervalued when he’s going to make 13+ mil a year.

  • Tombstone

    1.As a Stanley Cup contender the Oiler can trade their 1st overall pick every year or so at the Trade Deadline for added depth.
    For example trading for the Sedin sisters. Imagine having them on your 3rd line and on the PP.
    2. Maybe Oilers can attract skilled Veterans who only want to win a Stanley Cup and will sign for Cheap.
    For Example Patrick Marleau.
    3. Oilers D situation is really good the following years. Given the option to buyout or retain Salary. Nurse and Benning can sign 3 year @$3million bride contract deals, allowing Caleb, Jones, Mantha to season in the AHL. They still have 3 years on their ELC, by then Russell,Sekera and Larsson contracts are up.
    4.McDavids ability to take players like Maroon and turn them into goal scorers.

  • MarbledBlueCheese

    I suggest that the core of this team will be ready to truly contend when Chiarelli listens to the majority of fans and finally obtains the Brouwer from Calgary. Shouldn’t have to give up more than a few picks or A prospects.

  • Freddie the fog

    If connor took 11 mill everybody would b ecstatic . Sounds like he’s coming in at 13 and change. How bout a little perspective….the difference is ONE 2 million dollar player. Big woop. If Mcdavid’s deal is indeed for 8 years…im loving it.

  • Bagged Almond Milk

    I would rather have 1 Connor than all of Hall, Ebs, Yak, Pouliot and Fayne. His contract is about 7 or 8 million less than those guys combined for, so I think it should work out fine. Chiarelli just has to avoid overpaying guys who don’t live up to their contracts.

    • Bagged Almond Milk

      If only there were some sort of advanced statistic that could be used to measure how effective an individual player is who just signed a deal…. Someone like Russell

  • Spydyr

    The thing is when you have the best player in the World you have to pay him like the best player in the World. The Oilers if the rumors are true have nine more years of McDavid.

    This is a win. End of story.

  • Jordan88

    Man, as a kid who watched the Oilers struggle to pinch pennies in the 90’s to be competitive. I am now an adult watching the Oilers try and work the cap game, what a time to be alive.

    McDavid is worth whatever he wants. If we can get him under 14 for a 8 year term thats pay dirt. Next year Pouliot and Fayne come off the books, so we can afford Draisaitil and the cap will go up with Vegas.

    Heres to hoping we can sign a rental agreement with Thornton or Marleau for this season. We can make a push for the cup this year without leveraging our future.

    • crabman

      Crosby signed a front loaded 12 year contract that are against the CBA rules now. 12m the 1st 3 years. 3m the last 3 years. That’s why McDavid will have a significantly higher cap hit. And the Pens will be still paying Crosby a cap hit of 8.7m until he is 37. They built his contract to be a deal when he is younger and a boat anchor later in his carrer.
      I was hoping for McDavid to come in at around 12m per but expected it to only be 5 years. 13.15m over 8 sounds pretty great to me. Remember it is highly unlikely he peaked in his 2nd year pro. He hasn’t even finished developing physically yet. Give him man strength and veteran craftiness and he is gonna be a beast.

  • Rusty Patenaude

    You have much greater faith in Rishaug and Friedman than I do. Personally I reject their “information” as being nothing more than conjecture. I don’t believe that anybody on the “inside” of the McDavid contract negotiations has said anything to either guy about dollars…and I know Chiarelli hasn’t been gossiping. I think we should wait a couple days until the deal is done.

  • Spoils

    my formula – have the core sign slightly lower contracts under the knowledge that the saved cap will be deployed on free agents to give the team the best chance to win the cup. when they win, their advertising dollars will more than make up for it…

    seems to have been largely ignored. you cannot say McDavid did anything other than max out his contract.

    You have to win cups if you want the big lifetime ad contracts so… here’s hoping he knows more about this stuff than i do.

    • NoBuBlackOPS

      Mcdavid hasn’t won anything at the pro level yet but he’s already making lots of extra money with endorsements. Whether he wins a cup or not big business will be knocking on his door for endorsements.

      • Freddie the fog

        Endorsement deals especially with hockey players dont exceed player salaries. A couple yrs ago when Crosby was getting paid by 4 big money companies…Reebok, Tim Hortons, cant remember the other 2. All in he made about 4.5 mil off those deals.

      • Spoils

        he more than just plays in the NHL. rereading this it comes off wrong. I’d rather point out that we DON’T know how much better McDavid could get. He is a smart guy. He knows a cap hit this big will hurt his chances of winning a cup. If he doesn’t care, maybe he thinks he can get a lot better…

        • well, by rights, he didn’t actually max out his contract. He could get $15MM, so he left something behind, and no matter what, someone would have paid him the max, so by that logic he’d handicap whomever he plays for, because he was always going to get the max or close to it.

  • Ridgeman

    Wow – I’m suprized he is signing for that amount. Connors signing along with Draisaital pending big ocntract means we will have a competitive team for years to come, BUT will not be able to win the Cup because there will not be enough cap money available to sign another 5-6 quality players that a team needs to win the cup. Oh well atleast it will be fun watching a competitive team, that goes out early in every playoff

  • Hockey123

    If i”m Colorado I would first try to trade Duchene for a top 4 D then Trade Barrie of for RNH.
    If I’m Edmonton I would sign Hanzal before trading RNH. The Cap

  • Jay (not J)

    Nope it’s all over. Time to put those new barriers on the HL bridge to the test.

    People are reacting like it’s their own money. The important thing is he’s locked up for 8 years. Big win for Edmonton.