9
Photo Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Countdown to the season question 18: Individual point projections

In question 17 we looked at each division and who makes the playoffs.

Today, we’ll project individual point totals.

Can Connor McDavid reach 100 points in consecutive seasons? No player has won back-to-back Art Ross trophies since Jaromir Jagr won four in a row from 1998-2001.

He will also try to become the first player with consecutive 100-point seasons since Sidney Crosby (103,109) and Alex Ovechkin (110, 109) did it in 2009 and 2010.

The Oilers were 7th in the NHL in goals scored with 243. With more powerplays expected combined with McDavid and Draisaitl a year older, I have Edmonton scoring 266 goals.

Here is the breakdown of “lines” and goals scored last season.

McDavid, Draisaitl and Maroon scored 86 goals in 246 games.

Eberle, Lucic, RNH produced 61 goals in 246 games.

Pakarinen/Hendricks/Pitlick-Letestu-Kassian combined for 37 goals in 244 games.

Pouliot/Puljujarvi-Caggiula/Desharnais/Lander- Slepyshev/Khaira scored 24 goals in 246 games.

The Oilers entire defence produced 35 goals with Klefbom (12), Sekera (8) and Nurse (5 in 44 games) leading the way.

THIS YEAR

Apr 9, 2017; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers center Leon Draisaitl (29) and Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) celebrates Draisaitl’s third period goal against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Place. The goal marked McDavid’s 100th point of the season. The Oilers won 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports

I just used 12 forwards and broke it into “line” distribution. I understand some players will miss games, so numbers will obviously change, but I tried to break it down through production from “lines”. I recognize the Oilers lines will most likely change frequently. Kailer Yamamoto will play some games, but I don’t expect him to be here after nine games. If he is, then my numbers on some players will be off.

I looked at this based on playing 82-games, because I’m hesitant to predict who gets injured. But the team total is what I’m basing my projections off of.

Maroon                McDavid             Draisaitl
23-21-44             44-74-118         30-48-78          (97 goals)

Lucic                    RNH                    Slepyshev
24-30-54            18-29-47            13-13-26           (55 goals)

Jokinen                Strome                 Caggiula
15-21-36              17-21-38             16-20-36         (48 goals)

Khaira                  Letestu                 Kassian
7-9-16                 14-19-33              10-13-23          (31 goals)

I have the defence scoring 35 goals again with Klefbom leading the way with 14. Benning and Nurse have six. Sekera’s injury and potential return date made it difficult, but again I’m looking for as a group in general.

Klefbom          Larsson
14-26-40         3-16-19

Russell             Benning
2-14-16             6-19-26

Nurse                Gryba
6-12-19             1-6-7

Sekera
3-11-14

Unfortunately, Talbot will have to wait another year before he scores a goal.

Do you see anyone having a breakout year?

Anyone take a step back from last year?

Did I over or under project someone?

THE SEASON LAUNCH PARTY

We’re trying to raise as much money as possible for the victims of last Saturday’s attack in Edmonton and we could use your help. Tickets to the Season Launch Party are on sale now for $30 and will remain on sale straight through until the date of the party, or until they sell out — whichever happens first. Your ticket will also enter you into all of the draws for NationGear prizes and the jersey giveaways that will happen throughout the night.

  • Where: The Pint Downtown
  • When: Saturday, October 7th starting at 6pm
  • Why: Because we’ve got a hankerin’ for some partyin’
  • How Much: Tickets are $30 with net proceeds going to the victims of last week’s attack in Downtown Edmonton
  • How: Tickets are available here

For each ticket you buy, you’ll get one of the exclusive season opener t-shirts (shown above), a $10 Denizen Hall GC, a card for FREE perogies and tacos for a year at the Pint, $10 Oodle Noodle GC, a Nation sticker package, and, most importantly, a chance to kick off the season with your Nation brothers and sisters.

Recently by Jason Gregor:



  • Florescent Oil Orange

    When I weigh the positives and the negatives I can’t agree with your 266 goal production. I look for a number closer to last season 243 plus or minus a few

  • Florescent Oil Orange

    Also maybe I’ve missed it not living in Edmonton miss the radio updates on the oilers and all the water cooler talk. But have the oilers signed or released kelly?

    • superdad79

      Kelly has been asked to stay with he team no contract. I am guessing once yamamoto plays his 9 games he’ll go to the dub and Kelly gets a 1 yr deal for under a mil.

      • Jason Gregor

        They won’t be signing Kelly…they will recall Slepyshev. Kelly is just practicing and staying in shape and likely hoping another team signs him. Chiarelli told me right now there is no plans to sign Kelly. I think they would need an injury to Letestu to even consider signing Kelly.

  • tileguy

    Still just can’t beleive in Yamamoto can you Gregor. Go down to junior and do what, put on ten pounds, gain strength? Give it a rest. Let him give it his best shot. If he has 5 points after 9 games and is not a defensive liability, he stays.

    • tileguy

      After watching Kassian replace Yamamoto on that second line perhaps It will make for a compelling argument to send Yama back to junior. I sure liked how that line came alive and would keep with this experiment. If it continues to work, Slepyshev can go to the 4th line and 56 goes to junior.

      • Jason Gregor

        I see you finally accepted that preseason is much different than regular season. It has nothing to do with not believing in Yamamoto. It has to do with the facts the NHL is a damn tough league and very few 19 year olds play in it. Especially small ones who are 155 pounds. Strength matters.