This season preview series will focus on the 2020 NHL Awards and will make the case for which Oiler has the best shot of winning each one. This entry’s focus is the Frank J. Selke and the Oilers’ best shot at winning it: @Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
PTS
PS
TkA
GvA
FOW%
SH TOI/GM
69
6.6
59
56
45.1
1:42
Nuge had his best season yet in 2108-19, shattering his previous top offensive output with a very very nice 69 points. But for most of his career, he’s been branded as one of the best two-way players for the Oilers. His offence was hindered in his first few seasons as he felt the defensive responsibility was his top priority, only recently embracing his offensive gifts and contributing more frequently on the score sheet.
So with that all that being said, what does it actually take to win the Selke Trophy? What sort of “two-way player” wins the award, and based on what metrics?
Here’s a look at the last ten winners of it.
Season
Player
Age
PTS
PS
CF%
TkA/GvA
FOW%
SH TOI/GM
2018-19
@Ryan O’Reilly
27
77
8.8
53.44
94/33
56.9
2:00
2017-18
@Anze Kopitar
30
92
11.0
52.14
54/70
54.1
2:10
2016-17
@Patrice Bergeron
31
53
6.6
61.22
65/23
60.1
2:09
2015-16
@Anze Kopitar
28
74
9.7
57.52
43/45
53.5
2:09
2014-15
@Patrice Bergeron
29
55
6.4
58.14
48/29
57.1
1:45
2013-14
@Patrice Bergeron
28
62
9.2
61.22
49/28
58.6
1:58
2012-13
@Jonathan Toews
24
48
7.6
57.48
56/16
59.9
1:25
2011-12
@Patrice Bergeron
26
64
8.3
59.50
55/25
59.3
1:49
2010-11
@Ryan Kesler
26
73
10.4
57.21
65/21
57.4
2:34
2009-10
@Pavel Datsyuk
31
70
8.6
57.41
131/73
55.2
0:45
The Selke Trophy is vaguely defined as the “top defensive forward,” so I included stat categories that I figured would be in consideration for determining what exactly that meant. Something like takeaways isn’t as large of a factor as I would’ve thought, and shorthanded time on ice seems to only have begun to be an important metric in the last few seasons. What really seems to be the defining factor is a decent point share contribution to the team, and high possession counts and a very good face-off percentage.
Face-offs are immediately the first concern that comes to mind for Nuge, as all the players listed above were not just very good at winning draws, but absolutely elite. Nuge has certainly struggled in that realm for his entire eight year career. However, he recently mentioned on 31 Thoughts: The Podcast with Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek that focusing on face-offs is one of his top priorities in improving his two-way game this season (scroll down to Elliotte’s 13th “thought”).
Nuge is also going to have a hard time increasing his point shares with two 100-point players on the roster. But, settling in as the third-highest scorer, but not feeling as much pressure to necessarily contribute quite as much offensively. The hope too is that the Oilers’ depth scoring actually shows up for the 2019-20 season, will allow Nuge to focus more on the two-way part of the game, driving possession from the second line and getting that Corsi percentage up to a place that puts him in the Selke conversation.

Final Thought

Feb 15, 2019; Raleigh, NC, USA; Carolina Hurricanes left wing Jordan Martinook (48) takes a face off against Edmonton Oilers center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (93) at PNC Arena. The Hurricanes defeated the Oilers 3-1. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
Nuge has only been in true consideration for one individual award since he entered the NHL, and that was all the way back in 2011-12 when he finished second in Calder Trophy voting as the league’s top rookie, losing out to the @Colorado Avalanche’s @Gabriel Landeskog. Both players finished with 52pts, but Landeskog still commanded 92.82% of the first place votes. For Nuge to truly establish himself as the Oilers’ top two-way centreman would be reaching an important milestone in his young career and would be a key factor in having the Oilers begin moving into a position to truly contend for glory on a greater, team-based level (but don’t worry, I won’t evoke the name of the NHL’s patron saint quite yet).

Traditional team and player stats courtesy of nhl.com | Advanced counts courtesy of naturalstattrick.com and hockey-reference.com