It’s been yet another roller-coaster of a series for Edmonton. They’ve had some dramatic comebacks and some extremely close overtime games, but they’ve also trailed for a significant chunk of this series. Now, they must win two consecutive games or lose to the Florida Panthers in the Cup Final for the second straight season.

A big reason why the Oilers thoroughly dominated against the Dallas Stars in the 2025 Western Conference Finals was due to the fact they were almost never behind. In that series, the Stars led for a mere 14 minutes and two seconds, all of which came in the third period of Game 1. Through Games 2 to 5, the Stars did not possess the lead for even a single second.

But that has been far from the case in this year’s Stanley Cup Final.

The Panthers have led at some point in every game of this series, and have led by multiple goals in four of the five games. Florida has led for more than a whopping 200 minutes, compared to a mere 33:51 for Edmonton.

The dramatic comebacks are fun and all, but it goes without saying that this is simply not a strategy for success. These slow starts have been a recurring problem for quite some time, dating back to the beginning of the 2023-24 season.

There’s not much else to say here. This team absolutely has the ability to play a full 60 minutes, but so far, they’ve yet to do that. Simply put, Edmonton needs to come out guns blazing in the first period of Game 6.

There has been significant criticism against the officiating, and rightfully so. Indeed, I would highly agree that for the most part, they have been brutal in this series. But it is unfair to say that they are even close to the primary reason as to why the Oilers are behind.

Edmonton has had multiple power-play opportunities at key points in this series. In their Game 2 loss, the Oilers had a 5-on-3 in the first period, an opportunity to establish a multi-goal lead, but failed to convert, ultimately losing by a single goal in double overtime. In their Game 3 loss, the Oilers allowed the first GA of the game quite early, but still had multiple power-play chances to tie the game throughout the first. However, they did not score on those chances, and wound up getting blown out 6-1. And finally, in Game 5, Edmonton began the game down 2-0, but had three power-plays in the first two periods, enough to tie the game or at least cut the lead to one. And yet again, they failed to do so, losing 5-2.

Can the officiating be better? Absoultely. I saw many missed calls against the Panthers in Games 4 and 5. Nevertheless, Edmonton has had their fair share of power-play chances, but failed to capitalize on them. That’s fully on them.

The Oilers have had major struggles scoring and finishing at 5-on-5 on the road in Florida. They will need their power-play to be at its best in Game 6.

While Edmonton’s depth forwards have been disappointing, greatly missing Zach Hyman, they still hold a net-even goal differential at 5-on-5. Nothing spectacular, but this remains a massive improvement over years prior where their goal differential ranged between 30-40%. It’s enough for the Oilers to be successful.

However, the Oilers still hold a net negative goal differential at 5-on-5 in this series. And to put it bluntly, it’s primarily due to their top stars not playing at their top level.

With McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice together at 5v5, they have absolutely dominated possession and scoring chances, but they’ve utterly failed to finish. And away from each other, they have been thoroughly out-shot and out-scored. Simply put, it is extremely difficult for the team to win with the top-six playing like this.

The real shame here is that, unlike last year, Barkov has not performed well. He’s yet to score a goal in this series, and he holds a negative goal and expected goal differential at 5-on-5. The Forsling – Ekblad pair has also mightily struggled in their own end, holding an abysmal 38 percent expected goal share. And so, it’s not as if Barkov and Forsling have been shutting down McDavid and Draisaitl; Edmonton’s stars just haven’t been able to figure out the rest of Florida’s lines and finish the chances they have obtained.

Of course, you can obviously cut Draisaitl some slack after scoring both OT game-winning goals in Games 1 and 4. But nevertheless, they need him and especially McDavid to be substantially better at 5-on-5. I don’t ever like criticizing these two after everything they have done for this team, but there’s just no other way to say it. The injury to Hyman has undeniably hurt their play, but even with the wingers they’ve had, it’s not unreasonable at all to at least expect a positive goal differential from those two. Unless the powerplay goes supernova, I can’t see a world where the Oilers win the cup with both McDavid and Draisaitl operating at a negative 5v5 GF%.

After putting up zero points in the final two games of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final, Game 6 will be a legacy-defining game for Connor McDavid, perhaps the most important one of his career when all’s said and done. Let’s see if the league’s most talented player will deliver.