On the one hand, underwhelming starts are far from a new phenomenon for Edmonton. After all, they had a horrific record of 2-9-1 to start 2023-24, just two seasons ago. Their 9-8-2 record to begin the 2024-25 season wasn’t exactly outstanding either.

However, there are some red flags in the team’s current game — which were not present in prior seasons — that raise some concerns moving forward. Most notably, their offence at 5-on-5 has been significantly below par.

Overall, Edmonton ranks just 27th in the NHL in 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes of play, averaging a rate of just 2.13. That is extremely disappointing for a team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on it. Just to put that into perspective, the last time the Oilers scored at a rate below 2.15 goals per hour was in the 2015-16 season, i.e. McDavid’s rookie season, where league scoring was significantly lower.

Now, one may note that the Oilers ranked 22nd in 5-on-5 goals per hour in the first 20 games of the 2023-24 season, and they wound up finishing the season in third place. Perhaps a bounce-back such as that is bound to occur again.

However, it must be noted that, even during Edmonton’s abysmal start that season, they still ranked first in the NHL in expected goals per hour. Their offensive struggles to begin the 2023-24 NHL season were largely due to simple poor puck luck, as they were scoring nearly a full goal below expected per 60 minutes. Predictably, it regressed.

That has not been the case thus far this season. In terms of expected goals, the Oilers still rank just 26th in expected goals generated per hour. They aren’t scoring many goals, but unlike 2023-24, they aren’t generating enough chances either.

This is a big reason why the Oilers have significantly struggled to close out games in regulation. They have just four regulation wins in the first 20 games thus far, a tie with six other teams for the fewest regulation wins in the NHL. While they can win at 3-on-3, success at 5-on-5 in regulation is often a significant indicator for postseason success, and thus, this is something that must be pointed out.

Diving deeper into the results

Let’s dive deeper into Edmonton’s offensive stats. Firstly, let’s consider the team’s scoring rates in various situations with and without Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

When McDavid and Draisaitl have played together at 5-on-5, they are generating 3.25 on-ice goals per hour. Very good. However, it is not as exceptional as the dynamic duo typically has been, as their scoring rate often eclipsed four goals per hour in the past. This is one reason for their decreased scoring rate.

Now, what about the two stars without each other? On the one hand, Draisaitl is generating a very strong 3.6 goals per hour without McDavid, even better than it has been the past few seasons. However, McDavid is at a rate of just 2.36 without Draisaitl.

That marks a steady decline in his on-ice offence on his own line, as he was at 4.07 in 2023-24, but it declined to 2.97 in 2024-25, and now 2.36 this season, the lowest rate for him since the 2018-19 season when he played with the likes of Alex Chiasson and Milan Lucic on his wing. That is a concern.

As for the situation with both of them off-ice, the Oilers’ scoring rate without their two superstars has also been in decline. See below:

Edmonton’s bottom-six has been quite poor for most of the McDavid and Draisaitl era, but it began to see major improvement starting in the second half of the 2021-22 season. Then, it peaked in 2022-23, where Edmonton scored at a fantastic rate of 2.42 goals per 60 without McDavid and Draisaitl on-ice. Impressive for a bottom-six.

But in the past three seasons, and now, Edmonton is averaging a mere 1.12 goals per hour without McDavid and Draisaitl, a rate even worse than any of the teams during the Peter Chiarelli era. That is worrisome.

So, what’s going on here?

There’s not much to be concerned about with Draisaitl’s play. He has an outstanding 68 percent goal differential on his own line, and it is a continuation of his excellent two-way play at centre from last season. Rather, I am primarily concerned about McDavid’s play and the performance of the bottom-six.

There are potentially numerous factors for McDavid’s declining offence on his own line. One obvious one could be the absence of Zach Hyman, McDavid’s most common winger, who has missed the first 19 games of this season thus far. However, it should be noted that Hyman was present for most of the 2024-25 season, where McDavid had already seen considerable regression in 5-on-5 scoring rates compared to the season prior, so it is likely not the only factor.

Perhaps one reason for this is the team’s excessive rate of point shots from their defenders. See below:

Thus far, 38% of Edmonton’s shots at 5-on-5 have come from their defencemen, far higher than any other team. It has absolutely played a critical role in the team’s embarrassingly low high-danger chance differential. Per Natural Stat Trick, the Oilers rank 17th in 5-on-5 shots per hour, but second last in 5-on-5 high-danger chances per hour.

In 2023-24, McDavid was on-ice for over 18 high-danger chances per 60 without Draisaitl. This season, that number is at just 9.2, nearly a full 50 percent decrease. Thus, I believe this could be a significant factor.

There may also be an injury at play here, as McDavid has dealt with core injuries throughout the past few seasons, something that would affect his shooting and ability to take faceoffs. Though there has not been any official confirmation or reports of this, it would logically make sense.

As for the bottom-six, one can certainly point fingers at the coaching staff here.

Simply put, Kris Knoblauch’s constant line-shuffling has likely had a significant effect on the ability of the team’s lines to build chemistry together. Edmonton has just two lines that have played over 80 minutes together. This theory is supported by the general fact that the Oilers have seen a substantial decrease in 5-on-5 scoring rate since Knoblauch arrived in Edmonton.

There have also been underwhelming performances from various of their depth forwards in general, namely Andrew Mangiapane and Trent Frederic. Mangiapane has just six points in 20 games, alongside a league-worst (!!) 5-on-5 goal differential of -14. He is averaging less than a single shot per game. As for Frederic, he has a mere one point through 20 games this season.

Some reasons for optimism moving forward

Looking ahead, there are some reasons for hope.

For one, Connor McDavid has been significantly better as of late. He has 16 points in his last eight games. Though most of this has come next to Draisaitl at 5-on-5 or on the PP, perhaps we will see much better play from him moving forward. With the return of Zach Hyman and the recent offensive breakthrough for Matthew Savoie, perhaps McDavid’s own line will see a significant improvement sooner rather than later.

The emergence of Jack Roslovic has also been a pleasant surprise. Unlike most of Edmonton’s forwards, Roslovic loves to shoot the puck, averaging a team-high 7.7 shots per 60. It is paying off in production as he has 14 points through 18 games. As Roslovic gets more minutes, you can expect Edmonton’s share of point shots to decrease.

Furthermore, when Ryan Nugent-Hopkins returns from injury, he is likely to play at third-line centre. Perhaps Mangiapane will fare much better next to RNH on the third line, playing next to much weaker competition.

All-in-all, this will be interesting to monitor as the season progresses. Time will tell if the Oilers can bounce back come playoff time, as they will need to.

Find me on Twitter (@NHL_Sid)

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Star Mechanical is one of Edmonton’s biggest locally owned and operated plumbing and heating businesses. They have been working within the community for over 20 years, and many of the homes built in Edmonton over the last two decades have had their plumbing and heating systems installed by Star Mechanical. Visit them at starmechanical.ca to schedule an appointment and let them help keep your home running smoothly.

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PRESENTED BY STAR MECHANICAL

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