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Is Oliver Ekman-Larsson a fit on the Oilers?
Photo credit: © John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
With the NHL Trade Deadline less than a week away, the Edmonton Oilers have recently been linked to defenceman Oliver Ekman-Larsson of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
“I do think Edmonton’s interest in Ekman-Larsson is real,” said Elliotte Friedman on the 32 Thoughts podcast. “And I think it’s just going to be really interesting to see what happens with him in particular, because I do think they could do that if they wanted to.”
Ekman-Larsson is a 34-year-old left-shot defenceman carrying a $3.5 million cap hit and playing on the Toronto Maple Leafs, a team projected to be a seller at the trade deadline as they sit well out of a playoff spot. Thus far in his career, Ekman-Larsson has played eleven seasons with the Phoenix / Arizona Coyotes organization, two seasons with the Vancouver Canucks, one season with the Florida Panthers, in which he won the Stanley Cup, and the last two seasons with Toronto. Ekman-Larsson also recently represented Team Sweden at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy.
Having allowed 12 goals in their last three games and ranking 26th in the NHL in goals allowed per hour on the season, the Oilers are certainly a team that could use some defensive help. Is Ekman-Larsson the right fit for their needs? Let’s take a closer look.
Diving into OEL’s numbers
To begin, we’ll dive into Ekman-Larsson’s underlying on-ice numbers. Using EvolvingHockey’s RAPM model, take a look below at OEL’s offensive and defensive impacts over the past four seasons:
In his second and final season in Vancouver, the Canucks deployed OEL in a very difficult environment. Though he averaged second-pairing minutes, Vancouver’s coaching staff gave his pair the toughest matchups, as he played about 33 percent of his minutes against elite competition per PuckIQ. For reference, Quinn Hughes was at about 27 percent. As seen on the graph above, the results were quite ugly — Ekman-Larsson ranked well below-average both offensively and defensively, and overall, the Canucks were out-scored 37 to 59 with OEL on-ice, equating to an abysmal 39 percent goal share.
In Florida the next season, his overall numbers saw a significant jump. His defensive impact was close to average, and his offensive impact in particular was fantastic, ranking in the 91st percentile among all defencemen.
The contrast in OEL’s deployment between the two teams was stark. Whereas he played the heaviest minutes with the Canucks, OEL largely played third-pairing minutes in Florida, tied for fourth with Niko Mikkola in TOI% against elite competition among Florida’s defencemen that year.
OEL’s playoff performance should also be highlighted. Ekman-Larsson dressed for all 24 post-season games during Florida’s Stanley Cup run and led the team in 5-on-5 expected goal share at 62 percent. Of course, he was on the third-pair, but these results should absolutely be mentioned nevertheless.
Then, he arrived in Toronto. In his first season with the Maple Leafs, his offensive and defensive impacts ranked around the 50th percentile, almost perfectly average in that regard. This season thus far, OEL has been more high-event, relatively speaking, as his offensive on-ice impact has seen a considerable improvement while his defence has declined.
His usage with the Maple Leafs has been more varied compared to previous teams. Overall, he ranks third among Leafs defencemen in TOI per game and percentage of TOI spent against elite competition. He has spent time on both the second-pair and on Morgan Rielly’s right side in the top-four.
To dive even deeper, we can take a look at microstats via AllThreeZones. Here is an overall summary:
First, OEL is quite aggressive at the blueline, and it has paid off with an excellent zone entry denial rate, even superior to Mattias Ekholm’s denial rate this season. OEL is also a defenceman who ranks high in scoring chance contributions, and is particularly strong at getting pucks on net to create tips and deflections.
I would also personally say that OEL’s low zone entry volume is a good sign for the Oilers specifically. For defenceman playing with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, it’s often best for them to focus on zone exits and let the forwards handle entries. Historically, defencemen who love to carry the puck into the OZ themselves don’t have great results with Edmonton’s superstars (see Darnell Nurse).
However, the chart above makes it clear why OEL’s defensive numbers have somewhat declined this season, as OEL has significantly struggled with defensive zone retrievals and zone exits. Among all of Toronto’s defencemen this season, OEL has completed the fewest successful retrievals leading to zone exits per hour, while committing the highest number of botched/failed retrievals per hour. That certainly is a noteworthy red flag.
Now, the microstats above are raw data, as they are not adjusted for teammate effects/system. In Florida, his zone exit numbers were much better, and so enviornment does seem to play a role. Perhaps he improves on a different team. Nevertheless, OEL’s struggles in this facet are substantial enough to warrant attention.
Where would he fit in Edmonton?
If OEL were to be dealt to the Oilers, he would be Edmonton’s fifth left-shot defenceman, joining Mattias Ekholm, Jake Walman, Darnell Nurse, and Spencer Statsney. They would still only have one right-shot defenceman capable of effectively playing in the top-four in Evan Bouchard.
However, one of the most intriguing elements of OEL’s profile is that he can play both sides. For the majority of his career, OEL has played on the left side (his natural side), but he has spent significant time on the right side, particularly in Toronto.
His results on the right side have been a mix. In 2024-25, OEL played over 520 minutes on the right side with Morgan Rielly, but put up a very mediocre 46 percent expected goal share. However, in over 330 minutes this season, OEL has put up a fantastic 54 percent expected goal share with Rielly. Outside of that, OEL has roughly average results on Jake McCabe’s right side and very poor results on Simon Benoit’s right side.
Regardless, I would say the ability is there, and he has certainly had more successful experience on the right side in the NHL compared to Walman and Nurse. That’s something that could make him a very versatile and flexible player for the Oilers, and gives them a lot of options with their defensive pairs.
Ideally, perhaps the best spot for OEL would be on Jake Walman’s right-side. Stylistically, this could be an excellent match, as Walman is dynamic offensively and fantastic at exiting the zone with control, but he struggles to defend off the rush. Contrast that with OEL, who has mightily struggled with breakouts but has strong entry denial numbers. Their skill sets complement each other well.
With Ekholm – Bouchard as the top-pair, you could ice a very solid second-pair of Walman – OEL, which then allows Darnell Nurse – who has struggled this season – to handle a third-pairing role. In my view, I think this would certainly be a strong defensive core.
You could also try pairs of Nurse – OEL and Walman – Emberson. If OEL can produce strong numbers with Rielly, a high-event defenceman, it’s certainly plausible that he could potentially put up decent numbers with Nurse on Edmonton’s second-pair. That allows Walman to anchor an excellent third pair. That being said, given OEL’s subpar retrieval/exit results and how Nurse also struggles in that facet, I would personally lean towards the option of Walman – OEL and Nurse on the third pair.
Is he worth the acquisition price for Edmonton?
Dec 13, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson (95) celebrates at the bench after scoring a goal against the Edmonton Oilers during the second period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
The biggest concern about a potential OEL trade is its acquisition cost.
Per Bob Stauffer on OilersNow, the Leafs have an offer of a first-round pick for OEL. The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta reported that it may take a player like Isaac Howard to acquire OEL.
There’s no denying that OEL could help the Oilers in the right role. A Walman – OEL second pair looks strong on paper, and his ability to play the right side gives the Edmonton lineup the flexibility they currently lack. He has also shown, most notably in Florida, that he can contribute meaningfully during a deep playoff run when deployed properly.
But there are also several red flags in his results. OEL is 34, and his results have fluctuated significantly throughout his career. This season, his defensive‑zone retrievals and exits have been a clear weakness, and his defensive impacts have declined. While his overall results remain solid, there is no guarantee of success.
Still, in a vacuum, OEL would absolutely help the Oilers. But the reported price tag is simply far too steep for my liking. For a team with a limited prospect pool and other pressing needs, such as a 3C and additional winger depth, moving a first‑round pick for OEL would be difficult to justify, while trading someone like Isaac Howard for OEL would be an egregious decision in my mind.
All things considered, I like the player, but not the price. Unless Toronto is willing to come down from the reported ask, this is a deal Edmonton should be very hesitant to make.
*Microstats via AllThreeZones, competition data via PuckIQ, on-ice data via EvolvingHockey
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