Now, the Colorado Avalanche are a fascinating case. Unlike the Blackhawks, this is a team with a genuinely talented roster on paper, and they hold a terrific 60 percent high-danger chance differential. It would be unfair to say that their outstanding start to the season is simply due to puck luck. Still, that being said, their PDO of 1.031 will be difficult to sustain. It’s reasonable to say that two things can be true at once; the Avalanche won’t sustain a 0.833 points percentage for the rest of the year, but they are certainly the favourites for the President’s Trophy.

The Washington Capitals are one example of a team that could sustain a high PDO over a large sample. Excluding this season thus far, their shooting percentage of 10.6 percent in 2024-25 was the highest among any team in a single season in the 21st century, and they continue to rock a 10.2 SH% and 1.02 PDO thus far this season. They seem to be one of the outliers to the general rule for PDO as mentioned above. Led by Alex Ovechkin, Washington is a team with outstanding finishing talent. Perhaps one could say the same for the Dallas Stars to somewhat of an extent, as their PDO too was above-average last season (1.019) and they possess various strong shooters like Mikko Rantanen and Wyatt Johnston, though there may still be some slight regression.

However, some teams that you can expect to regress are the Seattle Kraken and Anaheim Ducks. The Kraken currently rank 2nd in the Pacific Division, but they have a team SV% of 0.934, which is highly unlikely to last. The Ducks have certainly obtained a boost from their coaching change this off-season, but they remain heavily out-shot and out-chanced at 5-on-5. While they could absolutely qualify for a wild card spot, it is highly unlikely they finish the season first in the Pacific.

Now, let’s discuss the other end of this leaderboard. It is interesting to see the Red Wings and the Devils quite low on this list. Detroit ranks first in their division, New Jersey ranks second, and yet both teams’ shooting percentage is exceedingly low, just around 7.1 percent. Though the Devils will have to deal with an injury to Jack Hughes, these are highly encouraging signs for them moving forward overall.

The Nashville Predators seem to be the inverse of the Capitals in the sense that their PDO is consistently below expected. It was 0.970 in 2024-25, and it continues to be at a very low 0.962. Even if they do see some regression to the mean, it is likely not enough to help them qualify for a playoff spot.

And of course, there is the Edmonton Oilers, who have been near or at the very bottom of the PDO leaderboard in the first 20 games of each of the past three seasons. For some reason, this team simply seems destined to have a slow start to every season.

Now, there is a caveat here as the Oilers’ underlying numbers, specifically their xG% and high-danger chance are share, are considerably lower than it has been in the past two seasons, even during their poor starts. Their underwhelming start to the season can’t all be attributed to bad luck, as there are areas of their game that need genuine fixes. Nevertheless, there will regression to the mean moving forward, and with the Oilers’ recent win against the Florida Panthers at the end of a long road trip, things seem to be looking up for them.

All-in-all, these are fascinating results. It will be interesting to look back at this at the end of the season.