After cleaning up in Vegas in Games 1 & 2, the Edmonton Oilers return home to a Rogers Place arena that is sure to be a hostile environment for the visiting Golden Knights. At the same time, our boys will need to be ready to play if they plan on keeping Vegas on the ropes with the chance for a knockout blow on Monday. We need the Oilers to continue improving their puck management and special teams if they are going to put this series in a stranglehold.
But before we can even think about a 3-0 series lead, we have to think about the 60 minutes the Oilers need to get there. As pumped as we all are about the way the first two games finished — grabbing both wins on the road is massive — there were still plenty of moments in the second game that Edmonton needs to clean up. It’s the details, you know? Puck management, clean breakouts, discipline, and the special teams could all use a boost from what we got two nights ago, and I’m hopeful that we’ll see a better effort in Game 3 after a couple of days of video and review.
“Probably fortunate to find a way to win, but you’ve gotta win these ones too, because it’s not going to be your best every single night, and we found a way to win on an off night,” Connor McDavid said after Game 2, and added, “it means nothing if we’re not ready to roll for Game 3.”
As always, one of the most important things the Oilers can do for themselves is to get off to a quick start. That hasn’t happened yet in this series, and I’m choosing to believe a raucous Saturday night crowd at Rogers Place can help set the tone. But as cliche as it is to say, our boys need to be ready to play and put the pedal to the floor right from the opening draw. As fun as comeback wins are to watch, running the show for 60 minutes and cruising to a ‘W’ would be just as sexy for all of us, and I think there are a few simple steps that can help make that happen.
First of all, I’m not sure if my brain can handle gifting Vegas four minutes of power play time in the opening minutes of the game again, especially with the penalty kill sputtering along at 59.3%. The Oilers have given Vegas eight minutes on the PP in the first 10 minutes of Game 1 and 2, and that simply cannot happen, especially not with tripping and high-sticking penalties. They need to be more disciplined. But even if they do end up in the box, Edmonton needs to figure out how to kill it off.
Second, I think the Oilers would be well served with a few more simple plays. The Golden Knights are so good at clogging up the middle of the ice that it makes feeding pucks to the slot nearly impossible. Instead, the boys have had the most success when they’re firing pucks on Adin Hill from high in the zone with bodies crashing the crease. As much as I loved the goal that saw the puck move from Draisaitl to McDavid to Perry and into the net in Game 1, Vegas made adjustments to prevent that from happening again.
Thirdly, the depth scoring needs to keep rising to the moment. Edmonton is getting fantastic output from their depth, and we need another dose of that same magic if the team is going to put their foot on Vegas’ neck. On Friday, Jason Gregor wrote about the Oilers’ depth scoring and how they’re erasing the narrative that this is a two-man team:
“This is easily the deepest team we’ve seen in Edmonton in a long, long time. The Oilers’ forwards scored the most goals in the first round, and 11 of 12 forwards had a goal. The big guns are still scoring, but the Oilers aren’t relying on them to carry the team to victory. In fact, the big guns are shooting blanks in five road playoff games on the PP, going 0-for-12, including going scoreless on the five-minute major in OT [Thursday] night… What’s most impressive about the Oilers’ forwards is that they only have three PP goals thus far. This team is not relying on the man advantage, although it would be nice for the PP to wake up on the road. And the PK needs to improve on the road as well, as it is only 55% thus far. The Oilers’ special teams are a combined 55% on the road, which is wild, considering they are 3-2. Their 5×5 play is winning them games.”
As much as winning a third straight game over the Golden Knights will be difficult — you know they’re going to be desperate — I feel confident that they can get the job done if they accomplish the three steps listed above. The Oilers have proven time and time again that their resilience can keep them in any game regardless of what the score looks like, but it sure would be nice to see our boys working with a lead for once instead of always having to come roaring back. They can do this. I believe. Do you?
Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

OILERS
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
RECORD
6-2
4-4
WIN/LOSS STREAK
W6
L2
GOALS FOR
36
24
GOALS AGAINST
30
28
POWER PLAY%
27.8
32.0
PENALTY KILL%
59.3
83.3
AVG. SHOTS/FOR
34.5
30.3
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST
28.5
27.3
TEAM SAVE%
.872
.897
CORSI FOR%
54.65
54.28
PDO
1.003
0.941
TEAM SHOOTING%
10.65
6.91
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%
59.10
51.25
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)

LINE COMBINATIONS

Oilers

Draisaitl – McDavid – Perry
Kane – Nugent-Hopkins – Hyman
Frederic – Henrique – Brown
Podkolzin – Janmark – Arvidsson
Nurse – Bouchard
Walman – Klingberg
Kulak – Emberson
Skinner
Calvin Pickard was not on the ice for morning skate and Stuart Skinner was in the starter’s crease, which has me wondering how badly Pickard got hurt when Tomas Hertl fell on him late in Game 2. That’s not great news given that Calvin Pickard was arguably Edmonton’s best player two nights ago. As a result, Skinner will get his first start since Game 2 of the first-round series against Los Angeles when he gave up six goals. The good news is that Skinner has been in these situations before, and he’ll need to lean on those past lessons to ensure he gives his teammates the foundation they need to win.

Golden Knights

Barbashev – Eichel – Stone
Saad – Hertl – Olofsson
Howden – Karlsson – Smith
Pearson – Roy – Kolesar
Hague – Pietrangelo
McNabb – Theodore
Hanafin – Whitecloud
Hill
Vegas’ first line was easily its best line in Game 2, and I’m expecting more of the same from Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel, and Mark Stone on Saturday at Rogers Place. If Edmonton can limit their offensive zone time, that would go a long way to locking in the win because the rest of the Golden Knights’ depth hasn’t been able to do much. Maybe I’m oversimplifying the situation, but the Golden Knights are living and dying with their best players, so shutting them down has to be the mission.

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…

From SinBin.vegas:
There’s no beating around the bush; from this point forward, Vegas’ bottom-nine (all forwards other than the top line) must outscore Edmonton’s. If they don’t, the season will end within the next 10 days.
Vegas finished the regular season with the most goals in franchise history and were just one off the most 5-on-5 goals behind the Cup-winning 2023 team. This team had the weapons to do it in the regular season, they need to come through right now in the postseason. Brett Howden, Tomas Hertl, Ivan Barbashev, Nic Roy, Tanner Pearson, and Victor Olofsson each had at least 9 even-strength goals this season, they’ve combined for zero in the opening two games of the series.
It becomes even more crucial with three of the final five games to be played (if we get there) to be played in Edmonton. The Oilers’ superstar duo will get better matchups and likely do even more damage than they have in Games 1 and 2. So effective offense at even strength will be needed from everyone. The Golden Knights have the edge in special teams, and there’s no reason that has to slow down as the series progresses, but 90+% of hockey games are played at 5-on-5.
All season long, VGK has touted their ability and willingness to roll four lines, to wear opponents down, and their seven players with at least 15 goals. No more getting outplayed by Vasily Podkolzin, Connor Brown, and Evander Kane. Time to step up, or else, it’ll probably have to be time to move on from a few familiar names down the lineup this summer.

TONIGHT…

GDB Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers photoshop
Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk from Handmade by Tom
Game Day Prediction: Oilers scored the first goal of the game and keep the pedal to the floor en route to a 5-3 win.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: The Rogers Place crowd will be on Adin Hill before the game even starts. The result will be two more goals scored on his glove-hand side.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: John Klingberg picks up his first goal of the playoffs with a seeing-eye wrister from the point.

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