20-GOAL BLUE

One night soon—possibly tonight—Ethan Bear will score his 20th goal of the season for the Seattle Thunderbirds. It is a pretty rare occurrence for Oilers defense prospects in the CHL, but how rare? Let’s have a look.

Since the turn of the century, only two (and Joey Laleggia in the BCJHL) have managed to score 20 goals in an amateur season, and Bear is poised to make it three. So far this season, two WHL defenders have managed it, Connor Hobbs of the Regina Pats (23) and David Quenneville of the Medicine Hat Tigers (20).

Scoring 20 goals in your final year of junior (age 19) doesn’t necessarily mean you are destined for a glorious NHL future. Last year in the WHL, Jake Bean scored 24 goals at 17 and Ivan Provorov scored 21 at 18 years old. These feats are more impressive—and a stronger indicator of pro success—than Jesse Lees scoring 23 at age 20, or Colton Bobyk scoring 20 at age 19.

However, Bear scored 19 a year ago (age 18) in his draft +1 season, meaning his offensive ability, specifically his shot, could be useful at the pro level. Seattle has 19 games left in the season, and Bear could post a high number by the end of the season. The most goals by a WHL defenseman in the last five years is 28, by Josh Morrissey in 2013-14. That seems like a distant bell for Bear, and Connor Hobbs might push past Morrissey by the end of his season, but Ethan Bear is already in some pretty nice company.

Bear has scored 38 goals in the last two years, 21 on the power play. He is also righthanded, making him manna from heaven in a lefty world that is Bakersfield. Next year might be a stretch, but at some point in his entry-level deal, Bear may get a chance to use that big shot on the AHL power play, and it will be interesting to see the results. His 19 goals goals translate to 14 AHL goals in a full (68-game) schedule, so it will be interesting to see his boxcars from Bakersfield a year from now.