It has become commonplace in Edmonton to talk about the
importance of building down the middle. To some degree, that’s because the
hockey community at large has always (and in my view rightly) valued centres
over wingers. It’s also a result of Oilers teams over the last half-decade that
had a lot of talent on the wing and not so much down the middle.

Still, as Jordan Eberle and Benoit Pouliot showed in
2015-16, wingers can make quite the difference too.

Previously in this series:

As before, this chart was generated via Puckalytics’ SuperWOWY
function, and I have shown the forward combinations for each line on the
far left, followed by 5-on-5 minutes together, goals and Corsi plus/minus as a
unit. I’ve left out zone starts this time, just because it makes the chart too
big, but will be noting them in the write-up below.

For the sake of reference, I’ve also included generic first,
second, third and fourth lines. Again using Puckalytics, I ranked the top 360
forwards in the league by ice-time. The averages above are the unweighted
totals for the NHL’s 90 most-used forwards (three per team), followed by the
next 90 and so on. These are back-of-envelope calculations but they do give us
a point of comparison.

This is my last look at Edmonton’s forward line
combinations, and it’s a grab-bag of lines that didn’t include one of Taylor
Hall, Connor McDavid or Mark Letestu. The results tend to be either very good
or very bad.

On the “very good” side of the spectrum is the duo of
Pouliot and Eberle. Along with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, that pair was very effective
as the Oilers first line for most of the back half of 2014-15. It was less
effective this season, but I wouldn’t read too much into that—Pouliot was playing
hurt for most of the time this line was together this season.

In a brief stint with Leon Draisaitl this duo looked good. As
we saw earlier in this series, it was also the winger pairing that had the most
success
with McDavid in 2015-16.

Eberle shows up, sans Pouliot, on the bottom of the list as
part of a line with Nugent-Hopkins and AHL call-up Jujhar Khaira. The numbers
are a little better than they look, as this unit took 17 defensive zone
faceoffs and only eight in the attacking end of the ice, and in any event we’re
looking at a pretty small collection of minutes.

The rest of the names at the bottom end of the roster are
mostly unsurprising. At left wing, Luke Gazdic shows up in what is likely
his final campaign with the Oilers. Lauri Korpikoski shows poorly once again,
and does so despite some pretty decent linemates; Nugent-Hopkins, Teddy Purcell
and Nail Yakupov all make cameos here at the bottom with Korpikoski on the port
side.

Anton Lander is tough to read here; all of his lines were
short-lived units that didn’t get a lot of ice-time. Two of them were pretty
successful; two of them were pretty bad. On the whole, that’s really fairly
decent for a fourth-line centre; it’s a shame that Lander’s offence has
disappeared because if he could score even a little he’d have an NHL career. As
it is, he’s under contract for another season but could find himself buried.

Iiro Pakarinen is also tough to read here, but he comes in a
little shy of Lander as a possession player in these line combinations. However
he can score a little and he’s big, too, so his NHL future looks a little
brighter than that of the Swedish centre. That said, I don’t think the Oilers
should feel compelled to get Pakarinen into their starting 12; he’s likely
going to be cheap enough to be a 13th forward and it would be nice for the team
to have that kind of depth.

I’m going to take a moment here and look back over the
forward combinations as a whole, since this is the last post in this series
looking at forward lines from last season. I see quite a bit of reason for
optimism here, and with even a semblance of good health the Oilers should be in
decent shape.

Good health starts with McDavid. I know there’s a belief
that Patrick Maroon should start the season on his left wing, but when I
looked at the results the obvious line combination to run is
Pouliot/McDavid/Eberle. That was a 56% Corsi line on a bad team this year; who
knows what it could do with an upgraded defence.  

Hall worked
well with either Nugent-Hopkins or Draisaitl down the middle. If Edmonton
keeps both players, that’s a pretty good line; if not there’s a good chance
that either Hall/Nugent-Hopkins or Hall/Draisaitl will click along just fine
with a competent right wing. That’s an addition that can be made in free agency
this year, with players like Teddy Purcell, David Perron, Troy Brouwer, P-A
Parenteau, Lee Stempniak, Radim Vrbata, Brad Boyes and Dale Weise representing
just a partial list of the available talent.

Help is needed on the third line. If one of
Nugent-Hopkins/Draisaitl ends up here there’s a chance for this to be a really
good unit (and a case to be made for flipping Maroon to McDavid’s wing and
sticking Pouliot here to make the most of that centre); if not Edmonton needs
to go out and get a third-line centre. Given the number of veterans available
in free agency, I also see no reason for the Oilers to be content with Zack
Kassian in the right wing slot.

Hendricks and Letestu are a reasonable
starting point for the fourth line next season. Kassian will be back, and
this is a good place for him to start, too. Toss in Pakarinen and Lander in the
No. 13 and No. 14 slots (with Lander potentially losing his job in training
camp of next year, depending on the performance of the prospects) and the forward
lineup is set.

Barring a trade involving a forward, there’s probably only a
need for two additions up front, and both of those should be manageable in free
agency and on the cheap:

Internal competition and interchangeable parts is a strong feature of such a roster. At each position, players are capable of moving up in the event of injury, poor performance, or a desire by the coaches to present a different profile. 

If, however, Edmonton finds itself dealing one of Eberle or
Nugent-Hopkins for help on the blue line, there will be a need for a third
forward addition. I’d suggest a right-shooting centre (probably only available
via trade) in either case. If Eberle’s dealt, it’s easy enough to bump
Draisaitl to right wing; if Nugent-Hopkins is dealt, that right-shooting centre
can slide into his slot.

Alternatively, adding a right-shot centre in place of one of
those UFA right wings isn’t a bad idea, either. That will allow Todd McLellan
to load up the second line whenever he sees fit (Hall/Nugent-Hopkins/Draisaitl)
and still ice a competent third unit.

No rookies appear in the above plan, because I believe in
forcing players to win jobs; if one blows the doors off in training camp, it’s
easy enough to bury Lander. Also not appearing are wingers Korpikoski
(buried/bought out/traded) or Yakupov (trade request). Finally, I’d have some
time for Adam Cracknell on either a tryout or a one-year, two-way deal; he
showed well in a brief stint and having that kind of player around in the event
of training camp injuries is never a bad thing.