Ashes By Now

The job of an NHL scout is to project into the future. Their friends are knowledge, experience, other scouts, the tailor-made computer program, miles and miles of blacktop and sheer freaking luck. Their odds are so poor anyone not absolutely married to the career would drop it based on logic and reason within the three month trial period.

According to a draft study (using the years 1979-95) the odds of drafting an impact player are very low:

Barry Fraser drafted a ton of 1’s but they all came in a wonderful cluster. His career as scouting director was decidedly uneven during a long coda (1984-2000) but he can boast a litany of drafted players (Lowe, Anderson, Messier, Coffey, Kurri, Moog, Fuhr, Steve Smith, Beukeboom, Tikkanen) during the glory years (79-83) and a nice bunch over the long slide (Buchberger, Rucinsky, Maltby, Arnott, Satan, Smyth, Poti, Horcoff, Comrie) to his retirement.

Kevin Prendergast presided over the 2001-07 drafts and never drafted a Kurri or a Messier. Part of it was drafting in the middle of the first round, but KP did have one top 10 selection and delivered a quality prospect (Sam Gagner) who may climb above his current ranking (I’d slot him #3). His best selection? Ales Hemsky, who was plucked in the middle of the first round (2001) and has gone on to deliver outstanding offense over the years. I always felt Prendergast was about average at the draft table (which was a huge step up from the end of Fraser’s run) and it is probably the reason he was removed from the job after the 2007 Entry Draft.

Enter the Magnificent Bastard (Stu MacGregor) and a renewed effort to squeeze more out of the draft. As luck would have it, MacGregor hit a home run (at least all of the arrows point that way) with his first selection (Jordan Eberle). A re-draft of 2008 would no doubt see Eberle among the first 10 names to emerge from the list. The kid can play, and when you acquire that kind of talent at number 22 overall it is a very good day. I dare say we may one day speak of Eberle being chosen in 2008 in a fashion similar to the status Hemsky’s selection inspires among Oiler fans. Hemsky was taken 13th overall and should have gone in the top 5. Eberle was selected #22, and it looks like (there is a danger in speaking too soon) he should have gone top 10.

The next summer MBS picked MPS in a rare case of the Oilers falling ass over tea kettle into that sheer luck I mentioned at the top. This used to happen to Los Angeles all the time, but credit where due as MacGregor called out the young Swede’s name after Dallas and Ottawa (of all teams) let him slide. This past summer MacGregor and staff had the chance of a lifetime, selecting first overall in a year that boasted two kids worthy of the title.

MacGregor has had some good fortune, but the underlying story is almost as strong. Almost ALL of the kids picked outside of the first round have some or many arrows pointed in the right direction. Here is a quick summary of the Magnificent Bastard’s first three seasons worth of drafts and how they are progressing.

There are a lot of arrows pointed in the right direction here. I understand the idea that the scouts should deliver when they pick #1, #10 or even #22. I would counter with the long list of Bonsignore’s, Kelly’s and others, and further add that the quality of player added with selections in the 2nd (Lander, Pitlick, Marincin, Martindale) round are solid. Beyond that, kids like Hartikainen, Bigos, Rajala and Brandon Davidson would appear to be far enough above the event horizon (consdering draft pedigree) to be considered legit NHL prospects at this time.

Finally, there is always the danger of getting excited about draft picks too soon. A 5-year glance can sometimes be incorrect let alone two months later. Having said that, we’re tracking these prospects not making a final decision on them. The Oilers seem to be paying attention to the right things, be it injury history (their first round picks don’t have a Pouliot asterisk attached) to region (they’re all over the CHL and Sweden, shy on Russia, etc).

Even in that area I think the Oilers are taking the right approach. They’re not drafting as many Euro’s but have hired scouts who will pay attention to the developing talents in European amateur AND PRO leagues. With the NHL spending fewer picks on players from across the pond, that’ll mean a larger talent pool in the pro ranks whose rights are available each summer.

As frustrating as the major league roster appears to be, there is real hope from the procurement department. And that my friends is very good news. Stu MacGregor really is a magnificent bastard, and I mean that in the nicest possible way.