Building The Penalty Kill Around Talbot

There’s an old adage in hockey that says your best penalty killer has to be your goaltender. If that’s the truth then the Oilers are in a good position with Cam Talbot in net for the club.

Edmonton finds themselves with the eighth-ranked penalty kill in the NHL to start the year. Last year, in Talbot’s inaugural season with the Oil, the team finished 18th on the PK despite allowing the fourth most goals against in general. With the inclusion of shorthanded goals, the penalty kill has been one of the best stories for Edmonton early into the year.

A large portion of Edmonton’s (or any NHL team’s) success or failure on the PK is going to come from the quality of play they get in net. The good news is that Talbot has a history of stopping pucks shorthanded that suggests his performance should continue. I can’t read tea leaves and I don’t own a Tarot deck, so nothing is guaranteed except that goaltending is Voodoo, BUT I think there’s a big enough sample over the last four seasons of Talbot’s career to be confident in his ability.

I say that because Cam Talbot’s NHL career has spanned 119 games over the last four seasons, and his save percentage while his team is down a man is stellar. There are 32 goaltenders who have played at least 500 minutes 4v5 shorthanded since the 2013-2014 season and Talbot is tops among them with a .906 save percentage. He’s number one on a list that follows with Varlamov, Bishop, Fleury, Schneider, Halak and Elliott.

In 2015-2016 he was fifth in 4v5 save percentage (min 200 minutes). In 2014-2015 as a backup, he was fourth in the same metric (min 100 minutes). He was first as a rookie in 2013-2014 while the Rangers were shorthanded (min 100 mins). This year Cam Talbot is once again top five, although the season is still in its infancy.

What I’m getting at is that when Cam Talbot is in net, there’s a high percentage of shots getting stopped and that has been a trend his entire NHL career. Maybe that disappears tomorrow because the hockey gods are cruel and we are at their whims, but most likely it sticks around.

So the Oiler penalty kill is riding a hot goalie through the early part of the season, and they are happy with the results, but there are four other skaters on the PK that can help the team take advantage of the stellar work Talbot does. If the goaltending is the biggest part of the puzzle, and the Oilers have it, then the next is to focus on limiting the shots, attempts, and chances.

In last year’s top ten penalty killing units, five of them also belonged to the clubs in the top ten for the lowest shots against, unblocked shot attempts against, or shot attempts against per 60 minutes. This season, Edmonton ranks 28th, 28th, and 26th in those categories respectively. NaturalStatTrick also has the Oilers giving up the 19th most scoring chances against per 60 minutes on the PK this season. It’s very early in the year, but even though both the coach and media are heaping praise on the penalty kill, it’s clear that they can improve.

They have the most important piece to a successful penalty kill. Cam Talbot looks like the guy to build a PK around. Should the club find a way to reduce the number of shots against then the success we see now might be able to continue for a long time. If they stay the way they are, then even with stellar goaltending it should fall down. Early days still. It’s something to watch as the season unfolds.