Can any of these guys Score?
By Lowetide
6 years agoJesse Puljujarvi, Drake Caggiula, Anton Slepyshev — each man played in the NHL last year and showed enough potential to be heavily considered for a spot opening night 2017-18. It’s unlikely all three will have a feature role next season (and it is possible Todd McLellan deploys none of them in a top 6F role for the coming year).
One of the things I’ve been staring at for the last little while is this: Can we see who has the most potential from here? Can any of these guys score next season? I mean, we should be able to ask ourselves some questions in order to get a more accurate knowledge. We know that prospect age has a lot to do with forward progress, because history tells us a prospect of 18 is going to develop more in the next five years than a man of 22. Fair?
We also know that minor league numbers and things like even-strength scoring can help us surround a player’s ability. If we can compare the three young forwards and their established resumes, there’s a chance we’ll be able to better handicap the future. Right?
AGE
- Jesse Puljujarvi 19 years and 20 days
- Drake Caggiula 22 years and 341 days
- Anton Slepyshev 23 years and 14 days
Any fool can tell you that Puljujarvi has miles and miles of track and we aren’t close to knowing what he’ll be all grown up. He’s going to get a chance this coming season and another after that and after that if he needs it. Lottery pick, famous prospect, outstanding skill set.
The other two men are probably what they’ll be, based on what we know about past players in their situation. For Caggiula and Slepyshev, last season was successful and important to building an NHL career. They’ll have to build on it this coming season, as a slow month may see them in the minors trying to get their scoring touch back.
MINOR LEAGUE NUMBERS
- Anton Slepyshev 9gp, 3-7-10
Posted strong numbers in a short audition, and scored 1-6-7 at evens (that’s a good number) while getting 31 shots in those nine games. Slepyshev, at his age, should be putting the boots to AHL goaltenders and he certainly showed he was ready for the next level.
- Jesse Puljujarvi 39gp, 12-16-28
Puljujarvi’s even-strength numbers (39gp, 7-11-18) are a little shy of William Nylander’s in his first AHL season (37gp, 9-13-22) but it’s in the range. Nylander was over a point-per-game in the following AHL season, that’s probably a reasonable goal for JP (should he play in the AHL in the coming year).
NHL NUMBERS (5×5/60 scoring)
- Jesse Puljujarvi 1.45
- Anton Slepyshev 1.34
- Drake Caggiula 1.04
- Source
I think 5×5/60 scoring is the purest measure of forwards, it’s like God’s flashlight. Perhaps the most encouraging sign for Puljujarvu is his performance here. That said, JP did play with Connor McDavid and that’s going to skew things. What are the numbers without McDavid?
- Anton Slepyshev 1.13 in 426 minutes away from McDavid (Source)
- Drake Caggiula 0.85 in 567 minutes away from McDavid (Source)
- Jesse Puljujarvi 0.58 in 205 minutes away from McDavid (Source)
The points away from McDavid were few and far between for this trio, and that should be expected for complementary players. I think there’s a chance all three men see time with 97 next season but it’s also unlikely any of the three spend a prolonged portion of the year with him.
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
It’s the same bet now as it was last fall. Jesse Puljujarvi is far and away the most promising prospect, but he may not hit land in 2017-18. The other two men have good things to bring to every game, but will have to rely on good health and luck to establish themselves as NHL players. And Spencer Foo still hasn’t made his decision.
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