Can Katz make the difficult decision?

The Oilers organization needs an overhaul. The results this season and over the past seven years reflect a team that has lost its way off and on the ice. Nine years without a playoff appearance, with the last seven seasons being incredibly painful. 

The Oilers are 177-255-62 since the beginning of the 2008-2009 season. They have had six consecutive top-ten picks in the at span: 10th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 7th, 3rd and are on their way to another 1st or 2nd pick.

Many things need to change, but where should Daryl Katz begin?

I want to make it clear I don’t believe firing people is easy and should be discussed flippantly. These are people with families and I recognize how much it can impact their life.

The Oilers track record, however, suggests that while they might not like firing people, they have no problem doing it, especially if it is a head coach or assistant coaches.

It is time Katz look seriously at changing his management group.

This is a results driven business and no one has had worse results than his current management team over the past few seasons.

Kevin Lowe became President of Hockey Operations on July 31st, 2008. He hired Steve Tambellini as general manager and he wasn’t going to be as active in the day-to-day business of the team. We can all speculate to what level of feedback he had on the team, so instead of rehashing that for the millionth time, let’s look strictly at the facts and track record.

Lowe was the general manager for seven seasons: from 2000/2001 to 2007/2008. During his time as GM the Oilers went 263-217-94. They made the playoffs three times and went to the Stanley Cup final in 2006. Lowe had much more success as the GM, when he was calling the shots, compared to being the POHO.

Lowe has hired two general managers during his tenure as POHO.

Steve Tambellini missed the playoffs in all of his five seasons. Tambellini hired three head coaches during his tenure.

Craig MacTavish will miss the playoffs for a second consecutive season, and since taking over the GM role in Edmonton his team has a record of 36-66-16. He has fired two head coaches in 20 months, and his second “hire”, Todd Nelson, is on an interim basis, but Nelson has yet to actually coach a game on his own. 

The two men Lowe hired have not produced. Regardless of how much input he has, or doesn’t, during his tenure as POHO the Oilers have missed the playoffs for a soon-to-be seven straight seasons.

The formula with Lowe as POHO is not working.

Lowe has done a lot for the Oilers organization, and that should never be forgotten. I find it ridiculous when people try to downplay his ability as a player, because they are angry from his work in management. The two are not connected. Even if Lowe and the Oilers want to believe they are, they simply are not.

Lowe was a very good player, and if it wasn’t for the asinine rule that only players in the Hall of Fame have their numbers retired by the Oilers, his #4 should be in the rafters.

At the very least, the Oilers could adopt the philosophy of the Toronto Maple Leafs and have two separate categories. Retired numbers, and honoured numbers. The retired ones are out of circulation, while honoured numbers are still in use. I’d have no problem if the Oilers honoured Lowe and Ryan Smyth for their contributions to the organization. Neither will be a Hall of Fame player, but that doesn’t mean they didn’t do a lot for the team as players.

Katz has to look at his organization and realize that the plan is not working. As difficult as it will be for him, he needs to let go of the past and focus on the future. This team needs to start improving. Regardless of how much insight Lowe has on the team or not, the men he has hired haven’t got the job done.

He is accountable for that.

He has only been on the job for 20 months, and often a GM needs more time than that to change the face of his team. However, since taking over MacTavish has made significant change, but none of it has resulted in progress; in fact the team is actually worse statistically.

He has fired two coaches. He has hired two coaches. His hiring/promotion of Nelson has been very odd. He put Nelson in an incredibly awkward situation. He promoted him from the AHL, but he has yet to hand him the coaching reigns. It is a brutal position for Nelson, and one where he has virtually no way of looking good.

Either hire him to be the coach, or don’t.

The handling of Nelson is a reflection of how the overall organization is being run right now; they don’t have a plan for success.

Lowe and MacTavish along with the rest of the management and scouting staff have built a team that can’t win.

The players need to shoulder some blame as well, there is no debating that, but even if they were playing their best this team is still not good enough to be a playoff contender.

They lack size, weight and grit in their top-nine. They lack much the same in their top-four defencemen. You can’t win purely on skill, and the Oilers haven’t built a team that is willing to work hard in the hard areas on the ice.

They handed too much responsibility to young players before they were able to accept it.

Since taking over MacTavish has weakened the centre position. Horcoff and Gagner were better than Draisiatl and Arcobello. They weren’t great, but they were better.

MacTavish has changed out every player on the team except for six; Hall, RNH, Eberle, Yakupov, Schultz and Petry. That means he has changed 17 players out of the 23-man roster, but the team has not improved.

Will the next 17 changes produce better results?

Is Katz willing to take that risk?

I don’t see how he can. He needs to make some changes to his management team, and it can’t solely be amateur and pro scouts.

The toughest decision facing Katz right now is arguably when is the right time to make changes to his management team. If he does it now, the list of potential candidates is much shorter than it would be when the season is over.

If he fires his amateur scouts, then who will oversee the 2015 draft? Will other NHL teams let their amateur scouts leave prior to the draft so they can run the Oilers? Some might, but many teams won’t.

There is no arguing this will be a difficult decision for Katz.

He is a huge fan of Lowe and MacTavish, and when you create a personal connection it makes it more than just a working relationship. I understand that, but I also recognize that this team has not shown signs of improving for almost a decade.

At some point Katz will need to a business decision. Lowe and MacTavish have been a part of many past successes of the Oilers, and that should always be remembered, however, their success rate in management over the past seven seasons has been well below average.

The roster has been overhauled numerous times during the that time, and again during MacTavish’s 20-month tenure, and so has the coaching staff. Those moves have not yielded positive results.

It is time Katz looks higher up the chain of command, and I believe you will see some change within the management structure and personnel between now and the 2015 draft.

Fraser might pan out, but he is another winger with offensive potential who isn’t very gritty. He likely will get a look on the PP. They desperately need someone who is willing to shoot the puck. Which top-nine winger will they demote to the 4th line to get him icetime? Likely Tyler Pitlick. The Oilers have put Steve Pinizzotto on waivers to make room for Fraser.

Recently by Jason Gregor: