Compare and contrast (because I can’t leave well enough alone)

Let’s consider two players’ even-strength statistics together and separately. The two players are Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis. (GFON/GAON – goals for/against while on the ice, SFON/SAON – shots for/against while on the ice SAFON/SAAON – shots attempted for and against while on the ice, SH% ON – shooting percentage while on the ice, SV% On – save percentage while on the ice)

Collectively, these guys have been heavily outscoring their opposition. Since both of them are tremendous offensive talents, that’s unsurprising. What is surprising is that they really aren’t out-shooting their opponents by much, especially considering how many goals they’re scoring. The reason for this is that while they’re on the ice at even-strength, their opposition goaltender has a .896 SV%, while their goaltender has a .931 SV%.

Vic Ferrari pretty much conclusively proved awhile back that forwards have a major impact on the opposition goaltender’s SV%, but very nearly no impact on their own goaltender’s SV%. Thus, while Lecavalier and St. Louis are likely responsible for scoring so much, the fact that Mike Smith has been exceptional behind them is Mike Smith’s doing.

Right now, this duo is benefiting from great goal tending; otherwise, the number of goals against would be much greater.

Aside from modest changes to shooting and save percentage, the numbers look very similar. The biggest difference is that a much higher percentage of shot attempts are getting through, something unlikely to be replicated in a bigger sample (i.e. shots for and against are generally closely related to shot attempts for and against).

Fairly significant changes to save and shooting percentage (which can likely be dismissed due to sample size) are present in this sample. Still, the general trend that the Lightning are hardly the dominant team (from a shots or shots attempted perspective) with Lecavalier on the ice continues.

With or without Martin St. Louis, the Lightning are not dominating the play with Vincent Lecavalier on the ice. I don’t understand people who insist he’s a top-ten NHL player. He may be a top-ten offensive talent, but he doesn’t carry the play against tough opponents. In point of fact he never has; the last time Lecavalier’s line seriously out-shot their opposition, Martin St. Louis won the Hart Trophy and Brad Richards’ line was facing the heavies. That was the year where Lecavalier was fourth on his team in playoff scoring and Brad Richards won the Conn Smythe.

He scores lots, and he plays a physical game. The simple fact of the matter though, is that for as much offense as he generates five-on-five, he surrenders a lot of chances the opposite way.

He’s an exceptional talent, albeit one who’s recorded more than a point per game only twice in ten seasons. He’s vastly overrated as a top-ten NHL player.