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Comparing Keith Gretzky’s scouting work to that of the Edmonton Oilers

Jonathan Willis
7 years ago
Keith Gretzky is the new assistant general manager of the
Edmonton Oilers. Prior to signing on in Edmonton, Gretzky was the scouting director
of the Boston Bruins and the Arizona Coyotes. It’s far too early to judge his
work with Boston, but in his time in Arizona he was a contemporary of Kevin
Prendergast and Stu MacGregor of the Edmonton Oilers.
How does Gretzky’s work compare to that of
MacGregor/Prendergast over the same period?
Gretzky ran the Arizona drafts from 2007-11, a five-year
span. That’s the period we’ll consider here.

First Round Picks


These comparisons are the toughest, since they’re heavily
influenced by exact draft position.
YearPickPlayerComments
20073Kyle TurrisCareer highs: 26 goals, 64 points
20096Oliver Ekman-LarssonAbsolute home run. Best pick of Gretzky’s tenure.
20088Mikkel BoedkerCareer highs: 19 goals, 51 points
201013Brandon Gormley58 NHL GP
201120Connor MurphyAveraged 20:30 per game as 22-year-old
201027Mark Visentin1 NHL GP
200828Viktor TikhonovCareer highs: 8 goals, 16 points
200730Nick Ross0 NHL GP
The Coyotes landed four good players with eight picks,
including one truly great one (Ekman-Larsson). Three of the eight picks have
yet to play 100 games in the NHL.
YearPickPlayerComments
20101Taylor HallCareer highs: 27 goals, 80 points
20111Ryan Nugent-HopkinsCareer highs: 24 goals, 56 points
20076Sam GagnerCareer highs: 18 goals, 49 points
200910Magnus PaajarviCareer highs: 15 goals, 34 points
200715Alex Plante10 NHL GP
200721Riley NashCareer highs: 9 goals, 25 points
200822Jordan EberleCareer highs: 34 goals, 76 points
The Oilers landed four good players with seven picks (I’m
here excluding Nash and Paajarvi, though both of those players have topped the
100-game mark and are still in the league). Only one of the seven picks has failed
to play at least 100 NHL games.
Looking at the lists, I’m inclined to call Ekman-Larsson the
best pick of the lot, but also to favour Edmonton’s work overall. However, I’d
also suggest that the fairest comparison is further down the draft list.

Second Round Picks


YearPickPlayerComments
200732Brett MacLean18 NHL GP
200736Joel Gistedt0 NHL GP
200936Chris Brown23 NHL GP
200849Jared Staal2 NHL GP
201151Alexander Ruutu0 NHL GP
201052Phil Lane0 NHL GP
201156Lucas Lessio41 NHL GP
201057Oscar LindbergCareer highs: 13 goals, 28 points
Lindberg has injected some life into a list of Arizona picks
which looked about to go 0-for-8. Three of the eight selections have not played
in the NHL at all, and with the exception of Lindberg and perhaps Lessio it’s
difficult to find a player with much hope of substantially improving his
totals.
YearPickPlayerComments
201031Tyler Pitlick27 NHL GP
201131David Musil4 NHL GP
200740Anton LanderCareer highs: 6 goals, 20 points
201046Martin MarincinAveraged 16:46 per game as a 23-year-old
201048Curtis Hamilton1 NHL GP
All of Edmonton’s players have appeared in at least one NHL
game, and only Hamilton would seem to have no chance to improve upon his
numbers.
Marincin would be my choice at this juncture as the best of
these 13 selections, followed by Lindberg. Edmonton has got more out of its
five selections so far than Arizona has out of its eight.

Top 100 Picks


YearPickPlayerComments
200869Michael StoneAveraged 22:27 per game as a 25-year-old
200876Mathieu Brodeur0 NHL GP
201184Harrison Ruopp0 NHL GP
200991Mike Lee0 NHL GP
200997Jordan Szwarz35 NHL GP
200899Colin Long0 NHL GP
Barring the emergence of Dillon Simpson, which is still possible,
the most significant player on either list is Michael Stone, a homerun
hit by Arizona’s scouting staff. 
YearPickPlayerComments
201061Ryan Martindale0 NHL GP
201162Samu Perhonen0 NHL GP
200971Troy Hesketh0 NHL GP
201174Travis Ewanyk0 NHL GP
200982Cameron Abney0 NHL GP
201091Jeremie Blain0 NHL GP
201192Dillon Simpson0 NHL GP
200797Linus Omark79 NHL GP
200999Kyle Bigos0 NHL GP
The next-best guy on either list (based on work
so far) is Linus Omark.
Arizona’s work is pretty solid here with a low number of
picks. About Edmonton’s work, the less said the better. Picks like
the Abney and Hesketh selections were hard to defend on the day they were made,
and the overall record for these five years is not good at all.

Outside the Top 100


YearPickPlayerComments
2010138Louis Domingue15-18-4, 0.912 SV% last season
2007153Scott Darling12-8-3, 0.915 SV% last season
2007-11N/A10 players0 NHL GP
Arizona found two players with a dozen picks outside the
top-100 in this five-year span. Darling has been a solid backup for two years
in Chicago (after an absolutely bizarre career path) while Domingue’s ceiling
remains an unknown. For now he’s a backup but may end up as more than that.
YearPickPlayerComments
2008103Johan Motin1 NHL GP
2011114Tobias RiederCareer highs: 14 goals, 37 points
2010121Tyler Bunz1 NHL GP
2007127Milan Kytnar1 NHL GP
2008133Philippe Cornet2 NHL GP
2010162Brandon DavidsonAveraged 19:11 per game as a 24-year-old
2008163Teemu Hartikainen52 NHL GP
2007-11N/A9 players0 NHL GP
Edmonton found seven players with 15 picks, but only three
of significance. Rieder and Davidson are both excellent young players, while
Hartikainen played 50-odd games before chasing after KHL money.
Again, I’d favour the Oilers work overall.

On Balance

It will be up to each reader to judge for himself how to
factor in the number and quality of picks.
There’s a case to be made either way in the first round,
particularly if we ignore the first overalls and place a lot of emphasis on
Oliver Ekman-Larsson. With five picks outside the top-10, however, the Coyotes
landed one player of any real significance, while the Oilers added two NHL’ers
with only three picks.
Outside the first round, the results can be interpreted in
multiple ways. Arizona had a serious advantage in terms of second-round picks,
while the Oilers had more third, fourth and late-round selections.  
The Coyotes landed Michael Stone, easily their best player.
Aside from him, Oscar Lindberg had an impressive rookie season last year in a
depth role, while Louis Domingue and Scott Darling are both at least backup goalies.
Edmonton got Martin Marincin, Brandon Davidson and Tobias
Rieder. Mileage may vary (I’m not particularly bullish on either Lindberg or
Domingue), but to my eye that’s three of the four best players found be either
team outside of the first round over this period.
I’d say that the Coyotes under Gretzky were out-drafted by
the Oilers under Prendergast/MacGregor over the same time period. 

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