Cracks In The Drafting?

Stu MacGregor has received near-universal acclaim for his work on behalf of the Oilers at the NHL Draft. MacGregor replaced Kevin Prendergast in time for the 2008 selections, a change as welcome as the switch from Barry Fraser to Prendergast had been way back when Kevin Lowe made it in 2001.

As with Prendergast, MacGregor made good on his first pick at the helm of the Oilers’ amateur scouting department, selecting Jordan Eberle 22nd overall in 2008. For the first time since that pick, I think there are signs that the Oilers may not be significantly better than the average team at the draft table.

Of course, saying “there are signs” is worlds different than saying “fire the scouts!” It’s always difficult to evaluate the work of a scouting group without a) seeing their entire ranking of the draft, rather than the seven guys they usually get to pick and b) years of time to watch the results.

With that in mind, let’s revisit the data we do have: the picks made under MacGregor’s watch.

Overall, not a bad group. Eberle’s been stellar, Hartikainen’s playing above his draft number, and Cornet may yet have a career at hockey’s highest level. Of the busts, Motin got into an NHL game thanks to injuries before getting shunted down the depth chart, and Bendfeld was an ECHL enforcer for a while.

Again, it’s not a bad group. Magnus Paajarvi was an eminently justifiable pick – most pre-draft projections had him between 6th – 9th overall and he slid to 10th, and there are plenty of positive signs there. Anton Lander is a guy the organization obviously believes in, while Kyle Bigos is probably the best unknown prospect in the system. Roy is an NHL prospect, while Abney and Rajala aren’t total write-offs at this point.

This is where things get interesting. One year ago, virtually everybody from this draft class (outside of the bottom three) were tracking very well. The trio of Pitlick, Hamilton and Martindale were all coming off strong seasons in junior. Marincin had cooled as the season carried on but still played quite well, while Blain, Davidson and Bunz were all gaining traction.

A year later, and things have changed a lot. Pitlick and Hamilton have both had uncertain starts to their professional careers; Martindale has been undeniably disappointing. Marincin has failed to live up to the promise of early 2010-11, while Blain hasn’t visibly progressed. Bunz has played very well (and should have been at the World Juniors) while Davidson has improved once again.

It’s way too early to cast final judgment on anyone of the picks made between Pitlick and Davidson. It is not, however, too early to say that the initial optimism based on that group’s combined 2010-11 output was a little too pronounced.

There are lots of positives here, starting with Nugent-Hopkins’ phenomenal start to his NHL career, and carrying through to promising prospects in Klefbom and Musil. Simpson, Rieder and Gernat are all tracking well. Perhonen and Tuohimaa are long-range prospects, but they’re struggling, while we know that serious injuries at Ewanyk’s age are a major concern in the long-term.

… there is no conclusion. The most important thing to take away from this is that the book is still very much open on the work of Stu MacGregor and his staff in Edmonton. The Eberle pick was a superb one, and there is a lot to be positive about, but the struggles of the key prospects from 2010 in their first professional season should give us pause, because it’s the first time we’ve seen a really significant reversal for important players that were tracking well.

The good news is that it may be those reversals don’t mean much in the long run. The jump to the AHL can be a tough one – something that Joe Colborne, one of the best prospects around showed.