DISTANT LANDER
By Lowetide
7 years ago
Anton Lander was placed on waivers today, the breaking news covered very well by Zach Laing. I wanted to have a quick discussion about Lander as a second-round draft pick—as in, has he delivered value for that selection? Let’s have a look. (Photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved)
The first thing we have to do is find a line in the sand. Why? Well, most internet discussions don’t have a line in the sand and an agreed upon method of measurement and those end up in a heap. So, in order to avoid ‘you are the stupidest man alive’ level discussion (although I always appreciate all input), I give you Scott Cullen’s view of the draft world and estimated value for specific picks.
Anton Lander was the No. 40 overall selection in the 2009 entry draft. According to Cullen, a player drafted in that range (in a typical season) should be expected to:
- Have a 34 percent chance of playing 100 or more NHL games.
- Average for this range is a very good minor leaguer, someone who plays in 50-200 NHL games
- Have an 81 percent chance of being an NHL regular or worse
- Have a 12 percent chance of being a top-six forward
That gives us an interesting view of the player, from what average looks like at No. 40 and also provides us with the outer marker for Lander as a player (and his chances of becoming same). Here are the specifics:
- Point No. 1: Lander has played in 209 NHL games, so he cleared the first hurdle easily. Even the fact Tom Renney probably brought him to the NHL too early can’t really extinguish the accomplishment. At the ‘line in the sand’ level, Lander covered the bet.
- Point No. 2: If 50-200 is average for the range, then we can move Lander from the easy marker all the way to average—and that number could grow. Does very good minor leaguer fit Lander? You may feel he is more than that, numbers from Cullen suggest that is his range at this time.
- Point No. 3: Lander is extremely unlikely to fall into this third category. This next step on Cullen’s list is top 9F, and, save for the Todd Nelson era in Edmonton, Anton Lander did not occupy that part of the batting order.
- Point No. 4: Edmonton’s top six forwards are Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Milan Lucic, Jordan Eberle and Patrick Maroon. Although Lander’s NHL career could be at several spots (early, mid, late, over) it is extremely unlikely he gets to the fourth level.
WAS THE SECOND ROUND IN 2009 A GOOD ONE?
Great question. There are seven players from the 2009 second round who have played 200 or more NHL games, two of whom (Dmitri Orlov and Tomas Tatar) were drafted after Lander. There were 14 players chosen after the second round in 2009 who also played in 200 or more games (and counting, in many cases).
If we compare those numbers to 2008? Seven players from the second round have played in 200 or more games (2008 has an extra year, so probably 2009 could be given a slight edge here). There were 17 players chosen after the second round in 2009 who also played in 200 or more games.
2008 has 106 total players who have played in the NHL, a total of 50.2 percent of those drafted. For 2009, the numbers are 110 and 52.4—leading me to believe there is a slight edge.
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
You aren’t going to like it, but Anton Lander covered the bet. No matter what happens tomorrow or in future days. The Swede didn’t fail the Oilers, you could argue the exact opposite happened in actual fact. Lander was elevated too soon, and despite some speed issues, found a way to make the roster at the bottom end and hang around for 200+ games. You won’t like this either, but he was one of the best second-round picks so far this century (trailing only Jeff Petry, Jarrett Stoll, Matt Greene and Brad Winchester in GP).
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