Do Pre-Season Stats Mean Anything?

They say hindsight is 20/20. When it comes to tracking prospects in training camp, even hindsight spends a lot of time guessing.

The Edmonton Oilers have so many good rookies you’d swear we skipped a season for a lockout. It is very difficult to handicap the field. Sure Hall is a lock, Eberle a strong contender and Pääjärvi is right there too. Behind them are Linus Omark, Chris Vande Velde and Teemu Hartikainen. Let me ask you a question: if Linus Omark lit it up in pre-season, would that get him a job? Does a strong pre-season align the tumblers and unlock an NHL job? Here are the rookies who played 2 or more pre-season games over the last 5 pre-seasons for the Edmonton Oilers.

Men who broke camp with the big club in bold and the ones who got at least a cup of coffee with the Oilers are in italics. Of the 14 rookies who played more than one pre-season game, 11 (or 79%) would eventually spend some time in the NHL in 2005-06. Ironically, two of three kids who scored a goal didn’t make the team and were not recalled (Schremp and Stortini). All three of the players who didn’t play for the Oilers in 05-06 on this list eventually played in an NHL game (Stortini, Schremp, Bodie). So, lets have a look and see if the "more than one pre-season game" rule applies for the following seasons.

Players who made the roster in bold, and it is clear each of them got a long look in training camp. This season (10-11), there should be several rookie forwards getting 6 games or so in pre-season as the coaching staff needs to get an idea right away about their level of ability at a higher level of competition. Of the 17 players listed, 14 (or 82.3 %) got at least a cup of coffee in the show during the 06-07 season. Slava Trukhno, Jonas Almtorp and Tyler Spurgeon all played 2 or more games and didn’t make an NHL appearance, thus ruining my wonderful 2 pre-season game theory. Bastages.

Three forwards make the grade in the fall of 2007, and give us the most likely scenario for Hall, Pääjärvi and Eberle. Gagner had that summer tournament that gave him some momentum and I remember MacT gushing over both Cogliano and Brodziak during training camp. They really did force the issue. Gilbert was also a rookie in 2007 fall, making the rookie crop in bold one of the best Oiler fans have seen in many years. Schremp was the only cup of coffee from this season, so only 4 of 9 (44.4%) turned the trick and although Sestito, O’Marra and Bodie have since appeared in the NHL, Trukhno and  Almtorp did not make an NHL appearance during a regular season game in the North American stay.

Men who made it in bold and the callups in italics. 7 of 12 (58.3%) made the NHL during the 2008-09 season. Eberle by the way played in 1 pre-season game and did get on the scoresheet. Interesting that Spurgeon and Trukhno once again make the list but never got close to the NHL in a regular season game.

Stone was the only rookie to play opening night, although Deslauriers was on the roster. Chorney, Plante and Motin would also play during the year. Schremp was claimed on waivers and had a solid year on the Island. Dubnyk would also make his NHL debut. Eberle played in 4 games but didn’t get a lot done, but it makes for an exciting fall 2010. I should mention that 2 rookies who played 1 pre-season game ended up in the NHL: Ryan O’Marra and Colin McDonald.

I think this fall will most closely resemble 2007, when the Oilers took Gagner and Cogliano directly from junior and college respectively and Kyle Brodziak forced his way onto the roster with his fine play.

Finally, since at least two exceptional talents are going to be rookies in the NHL this season, I thought it might be an idea to post the top 20 rookie seasons by Edmonton Oilers:

Forwards (the 2007-08 rookies in bold)

The Blue

I wonder how many Oiler fans know Tom Gilbert holds the rookie scoring record for Oiler defensemen. I also wonder if anyone can pass Samwise this season, or even approach the Arnott number or (steady now) touch true greatness and the wonder that was Kurri.

Fun stuff ahead.