Don’t trade Hendricks or Gordon

9 years ago

The trade deadline is 31 days away, and I’m stunned by how many people believe trading Matt Hendricks and Boyd Gordon would be a good decision.

Have you not being paying attention to the woes of the Oilers the past five years? You can’t win with an abundance of young players.

The Oilers do not need to stockpile more draft picks at the expense of two proven NHL veterans who are under contract for next season.

Gordon and Hendricks have faced a steady diet of D zone starts all season. They have respectively started a measly 18 and 17% of their shifts in the offensive zone. The next lowest of any forward who hasn’t played on their line is Anton Lander at 45%.

Hendricks and Gordon face tough competition, usually start in their own zone, kill penalties and they both have six goals, which is tied for 5th on the team behind Hall, RNH, Eberle and Pouliot. They are proven veterans who know how to prepare and be competitive every night, however, some feel trading them would be a good idea.

The reasons I’ve heard/read are, “It will give the Oilers a better chance to draft higher,” and “what if a team offers a 1st rounder for Gordon, or “Hendricks is 33 and will slow down.”

Let’s look at these arguments.

The Oilers will not finish 30th even if they trade both of them. Buffalo is beyond terrible. They’ve outshot their opponents in only three of the 49 games they’ve played. They are destined to finish 30th.

So that means the Oilers will be battling for 29th to 26th. They are currently in 29th place, four points behind Carolina, five behind Arizona and nine behind New Jersey. I’d say realistically they will be jockeying with Arizona and Carolina for 27th-29th.

If they finish 29th, they have a 13.5% chance to win the lottery.
If they finish 28th, they have a 11.5% chance.
If they finish 27th, they have a 9.5% chance.

You want to trade one or both of your best defensive forwards for a 4% better chance to get Connor McDavid? That is a loser bet. If you don’t win the lottery, then you don’t have McDavid or Gordon and Hendricks and the team will be just as bad again next season.

I realize there has been a lot of hype around Jack Eichel, but the more scouts I speak with, the less I’m hearing that he is a generational player like McDavid. They really like Eichel, but not one of the six scouts used that word to describe him. They really like him, and all have him rated #2, but none said he is a lock to build a franchise around. He could be, but it wasn’t guaranteed, where all six of them said McDavid is that special.

Again, if you feel Eichel is that valuable to trade away proven veterans for future picks, I see that as a loser mentality and if Oilers management has that philosophy then they shouldn’t be in charge. I’d like to believe they don’t.

TRADE FOR A 1ST ROUNDER

The value of a draft pick is always overrated leading into the trade deadline and at the draft. I’ve conducted many articles outlining the percentages of a draft pick becoming an NHL player, and it isn’t nearly as high as the value people attach to a pick. I’ve also read many article by other writers illustrating the exact same thing.

Would a team offer the Oilers a 1st rounder for Gordon? It is possible, considering Nashville gave up one for Paul Gaustad a few years ago, but it is very unlikely and even if the Oilers could land one, the odds of that pick becoming a player better than Gordon are still low.

Gordon was a first round pick, 17th overall in 2002. He was never an elite scorer in junior, so he wasn’t projected to be a top-six forward in the NHL, but he’s become a solid defensive forward.

If the Oilers did receive a 1st round pick, it most likely would be between #20-#30. Let’s to a quick look at recent drafts and what type of players emerge in that range. I looked at drafts from 2009-2013. I didn’t include last year, because it was too early. David Pastrnak is the only one playing, and he’s played 13 games.

	2009
#	Drafted By	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
21	Columbus	John Moore	D	Chicago Steel [USHL]	201	7	26	33	52
22	Vancouver	Jordan Schroeder	C	U. of Minnesota [WCHA]	59	6	9	15	8
23	Calgary	Tim Erixon	D	Skelleftea AIK [SEL]	76	1	12	13	30
24	Washington	Marcus Johansson	C	Farjestads Farlstad [SEL]	311	54	114	168	30
25	Boston	Jordan Caron	R	Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]	129	12	16	28	67
26	Anaheim	Kyle Palmieri	R	U.S. Under-18 Team [Ind]	166	39	37	76	82
27	Carolina	Philippe Paradis	L	Shawinigan [QMJHL]
28	Chicago	Dylan Olsen	D	Camrose Kodiaks [AJHL]	116	5	16	21	34
29	Tampa Bay	Carter Ashton	R	Lethbridge Canes [WHL]	54	0	3	3	32
30	Pittsburgh	Simon Despres	D	Saint John [QMJHL]	130	4	24	28	114

	2010
#	Drafted By	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
20	Pittsburgh	Beau Bennett	R	Penticton Vees [BCHL]	66	9	20	29	10
21	Detroit	Riley Sheahan	C	Notre Dame [CCHA]	93	17	30	47	18
22	Montreal	Jarred Tinordi	D	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	39	0	6	6	49
23	Buffalo	Mark Pysyk	D	Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL]	67	3	10	13	16
24	Chicago	Kevin Hayes	C	Nobles School [Mass.]	43	6	10	16	14
25	Florida	Quinton Howden	L	Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL]	34	4	2	6	12
26	Washington	Evgeny Kuznetsov	C	Chelyabinsk Traktor [KHL]	63	8	19	27	18
27	Phoenix	Mark Visentin	G	Niagara IceDogs [OHL]	1	0	0	0	0
28	San Jose	Charlie Coyle	R	South Shore Kings [EJHL]	155	26	38	64	89
29	Anaheim	Emerson Etem	C	Medicine Hat Tigers [WHL]	94	12	15	27	17
30	NY Islanders	Brock Nelson	C	Warroad H.S. [Minn.]	121	29	28	57	30

	2011
#	Drafted By	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
20	Phoenix	Connor Murphy	D	U.S. National Devel [USHL]	73	4	10	14	29
21	Ottawa	Stefan Noesen	R	Plymouth Whalers [OHL]
22	Toronto	Tyler Biggs	R	U.S. National Devel [USHL]
23	Pittsburgh	Joe Morrow	D	Portland WHWKs[WHL]	15	1	0	1	4
24	Ottawa	Matt Puempel	L	Peterborough Petes [OHL]
25	Toronto	Stuart Percy	D	Mississauga [OHL]	9	0	3	3	2
26	Chicago	Phillip Danault	C	Victoriaville Tigres [QMJHL]	2	0	0	0	0
27	Tampa Bay	Vladislav Namestnikov	C	London Knights [OHL]	30	3	4	7	10
28	Minnesota	Zack Phillips	C	Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJ)
29	Vancouver	Nicklas Jensen	R	Oshawa Generals [OHL]	24	3	3	6	10
30	Anaheim	Rickard Rakell	C	Plymouth Whalers [OHL]	60	4	16	20	10

	2012
#	Drafted By	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
20	Philadelphia	Scott Laughton	L	Oshawa Generals [OHL]	32	2	4	6	12
21	Calgary	Mark Jankowski	C	Stanstead College (Quebec)
22	Pittsburgh	Olli Maatta	D	London Knights [OHL]	98	10	28	38	24
23	Florida	Michael Matheson	D	Dubuque Saints [USHL]
24	Boston	Malcolm Subban	G	Belleville Bulls [OHL]
25	St. Louis	Jordan Schmaltz	D	GreenBay Gamblers [USHL]
26	Vancouver	Brendan Gaunce	C	Belleville Bulls [OHL]
27	Phoenix	Henrik Samuelsson	C	Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL]
28	NY Rangers	Brady Skjei	D	U.S. National Devel[USHL]
29	New Jersey	Stefan Matteau	F	U.S. National Devel[USHL]	17	1	2	3	6
30	Los Angeles	Tanner Pearson	L	Barrie Colts [OHL]	67	15	8	23	22

	2013
	Drafted By	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
20	Detroit	Anthony Mantha	R	Val d’Or Foreurs [QMJHL]
21	Toronto	Frederik Gauthier	C	Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]
22	Calgary	Emile Poirier	L	Gatineau [QMJHL]
23	Washington	Andre Burakovsky	L	Malmo Redhawks [Swe-1]	38	7	12	19	6
24	Vancouver	Hunter Shinkaruk	L	Medicine Hat Tigers [WHL]
25	Montreal	Michael McCarron	R	U.S. National Devel [USHL]
26	Anaheim	Shea Theodore	D	Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL]
27	Columbus	Marko Dano	C	Bratislava Slovan [KHL]	8	1	1	2	0
28	Calgary	Morgan Klimchuk	L	Regina Pats [WHL]
29	Dallas	Jason Dickinson	C	Guelph Storm [OHL]
30	Chicago	Ryan Hartman	R	Plymouth Whalers [OHL]

We can all agree the pick wouldn’t help the Oilers next season, and they likely wouldn’t see any reward for at least three seasons.

Brock Nelson is starting to emerge as a solid player, but he was drafted in 2010, so even if they got a player similar to Nelson he wouldn’t be impacting the Oilers until 2019. Teams have found gems in that range, but it isn’t as often as many think.

The continual hope for the future mentality needs to stop in Edmonton. The organization needs to realize you can’t win with all young players. Having a veteran like Derek Roy is better than a Marc Arcobello and a five year pro like Lander is better today than a rookie like Draisaitl.

HENDRICKS IS OLD

This line was trotted out when he was acquired last year. His contract is too much, many analytics guys argued, and his play would fall off. Hendricks has been in the NHL for one more season than Taylor Hall. Yes he is 33, but he doesn’t have that many NHL miles on his odometer. He played NCAA and then spent five years in the minors developing his game. He had to work for everything he had. I doubt he magically slows down next season.

He is also the vocal leader in the room. He has challenged the young players to take hold of the team and become a leader. He’s done it in a positive way, but the Oilers don’t have many vocal leaders and his value is more than just his solid play on the ice.

Trading him for a mid-round pick would be a move made by a losing organization.

The Oilers should not be thinking about dealing Hendricks or Gordon for a draft pick. Making a deal to move them would simply be starting up another round of a rebuild.

I’d hope the Oilers and their fans are sick of the continual cycle of rebuilding that we’ve witnessed for the past six-nine seasons.

PARTING SHOTS

Just to clarify, the only reason trading Jeff Petry makes sense is because he is a UFA and it is better to get something for him now than lose him for nothing this summer.

Lander is proof that time in the minors helps the majority of players. Even when he was 21 he was still learning how to play the North American game in the AHL. He got comfortable last season and tallied 83 points in 75 games in OKC. But he still wasn’t NHL-ready until this year.

I’m not expecting Lander to emerge as an elite scorer, but he is becoming the player Stu MacGregor drafted in 2009. He works hard, he is a solid leader, been captain in OKC, and he has decent offensive instincts.

It took Lander five years to properly develop, which is what the data suggest for draft picks outside the first round.

He is a perfect example of why there is nothing wrong with playing Martin Marincin in OKC this season.

Let him continue to develop.

Recently by Jason Gregor:

Don’t trade Hendricks or Gordon

TRADE FOR A 1ST ROUNDER

HENDRICKS IS OLD

PARTING SHOTS

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