Jordan Eberle is having a very strong rookie season, and given the current state of the Edmonton Oilers and the alarming number of useful players currently sitting out with injuries, he represents one of the team’s few bright spots. How does his 20-year old season compare to those who have gone before him? What other players produced in the same range offensively while at the same age?
I turned that question over to the spectacularly helpful Hockey-Reference.com. Given that Eberle is currently scoring 0.63 points per game, I asked the website to generate the name of every player in the last 20 years to have scored between 0.50 and 0.75 points per game as a 20-year old. That list can be found here; a simplified version is below:
PlayerSeasonGPGAPTSPTS/GM
Vincent Lecavalier
2000-01
68
23
28
51
0.750
Ryan Smyth
1996-97
82
39
22
61
0.744
Joe Thornton
1999-00
81
23
37
60
0.741
Alexei Kovalev
1993-94
76
23
33
56
0.737
Mike Ricci
1991-92
78
20
36
56
0.718
Jason Spezza
2003-04
78
22
33
55
0.705
Robert Reichel
1991-92
77
20
34
54
0.701
Martin Havlat
2001-02
72
22
28
50
0.694
Ryan Getzlaf
2005-06
57
14
25
39
0.684
Alex Tanguay
1999-00
76
17
34
51
0.671
Eric Daze
1995-96
80
30
23
53
0.663
Nathan Horton
2005-06
71
28
19
47
0.662
Wojtek Wolski
2006-07
76
22
28
50
0.658
Sergei Samsonov
1998-99
79
25
26
51
0.646
Jordan Eberle
2010-11
62
17
22
39
0.629
Rod Brind’Amour
1990-91
78
17
32
49
0.628
Patrik Berglund
2008-09
76
21
26
47
0.618
David Perron
2008-09
81
15
35
50
0.617
Jakub Voracek
2009-10
81
16
34
50
0.617
Adam Deadmarsh
1995-96
78
21
27
48
0.615
Keith Tkachuk
1992-93
83
28
23
51
0.614
Sam Gagner
2009-10
68
15
26
41
0.603
Kyle Okposo
2008-09
65
18
21
39
0.600
Jordan Staal
2008-09
82
22
27
49
0.598
Milan Lucic
2008-09
72
17
25
42
0.583
Alex Radulov
2006-07
64
18
19
37
0.578
Radim Vrbata
2001-02
52
18
12
30
0.577
Michael Frolik
2008-09
79
21
24
45
0.570
Radek Dvorak
1997-98
64
12
24
36
0.563
Michael Nylander
1992-93
59
11
22
33
0.559
Bobby Holik
1990-91
78
21
22
43
0.551
Andrew Cogliano
2007-08
82
18
27
45
0.549
Tim Connolly
2001-02
82
10
35
45
0.549
Martin Gelinas
1990-91
73
20
20
40
0.548
Derek Stepan
2010-11
76
20
21
41
0.539
Tuomo Ruutu
2003-04
82
23
21
44
0.537
Justin Williams
2001-02
75
17
23
40
0.533
Maxim Afinogenov
1999-00
65
16
18
34
0.523
Sergei Kostitsyn
2007-08
52
9
18
27
0.519
Todd Bertuzzi
1995-96
76
18
21
39
0.513
David Legwand
2000-01
81
13
28
41
0.506
Jamie Benn
2009-10
82
22
19
41
0.500
Marian Hossa
1998-99
60
15
15
30
0.500
Peter Mueller
2008-09
72
13
23
36
0.500
I haven’t narrowed this down to my list of preferred comparable players; generally I would go through and eliminate players who aren’t roughly the same size as Eberle, play a significantly different style, and then I’d filter the remainder by past years to find ones with a similar career curve to Eberle. I’ll likely do that later once Eberle’s rookie season is complete, but for now I think it’s more interesting to consider the range of options.
Still, there are items on this list that I feel warrant comment.
First off, Sam Gagner’s place on this list is an interesting one to me. Had he recorded just two more assists as a 20-year old, we would find his name above Eberle’s. Yet, the perception of Gagner last season and the perception of Eberle this season are wildly divergent in my experience; it’s as if the Oilers mistaken decision to elevate Gagner to the NHL as an 18-year old has prompted many to lose patience with him. I don’t understand it.
Martin Havlat and Alex Tanguay both appeal to me here – both are good, solid two-way wingers and I think if Eberle follows in their footsteps there won’t be much reason for disappointment. That’s roughly the upper range I have in mind when I watch the player. For those who view those projections as too pessimistic, I would remind them that both players spent multiple seasons in the point-per-game range or higher, and that Havlat’s career has been sharply impacted by injury.
All things considered, this is a very strong group, especially as we approach the upper end of the chart. There is, in my estimation, very little reason to be pessimistic about what Jordan Eberle is going to do as an Edmonton Oiler, no matter how regrettable this season has been on the whole.