Klefbom v. Barrie

The most common questions surrounding the Oilers offseason is: have they improved their defence? How much will the potential loss of @Oscar Klefbom impact the blue line?

Both are valid questions. In August I wrote why the Oilers needed to change the personnel on their blueline. Losing Klefbom for the full season due to arthritis in his shoulder, was not the catalyst to change I was thinking, however, today that is how it looks for the Oilers.

Earlier this week we looked at the Oilers forward group, and how they will have five new faces on opening night, compared to last season. The Oilers defence will also look quite different this season. Klefbom is injured, Matt Benning signed in Nashville and Joel Persson and Brandon Manning weren’t re-signed.

Adam Larsson was injured on opening night last season, and then missed the next 22 games.

In those first 23 games the Oilers dressed the following defenders:

@Darnell Nurse, @Ethan Bear, @Kris Russell, Klefbom and Benning played all 23 games.
Persson played 10, Manning skated in nine, @Caleb Jones in three and Larsson in one.

With Klefbom, Benning and Persson/Manning all gone, and we assume the Oilers start the season healthy, then they will have three new faces for those games with Larsson, Jones and @Tyson Barrie.

Pretty significant change on the blue line as well.

To be fair, in the final 48 games of last season, here is how the blue line was deployed.

Bear, Nurse and Larsson played all 48 games. Jones dressed in 40, Klefbom (39), Russell (32), Benning (20), William Lagesson (8), Persson (3) and Mike Green (2). So we can argue that Klefbom out and Barrie in is the significant change.

Here is a quick look at the Oilers blueline at 5×5 in those 48 games via Naturalstattrick. 

Point totals at 5×5 in those games were Nurse (2-15-17), Bear (2-11-13), Jones (4-4-8), Klefbom (2-6-8), Larsson (1-5-6), Russell (0-4-4) and Benning (1-2-3).

So how much will the Oilers miss Klefbom?

Barrie is 29, shoots right and plays RD while Klefbom is 27, shoots left and plays LD.

Their career totals thus far:
Barrie has played 554 games and produced 80-266-346.
Klefbom has played 378 games and produced 34-122-156.

Barrie is better offensively and is in the lineup more often. Here are their totals at 5×5 over the past six seasons when both were established NHL players.

Barrie missed a total of 32 games.

Klefbom started the 2014/2015 season in the AHL, and didn’t miss any NHL games due to injury. So in the past five seasons he has missed a total of 98 games.

Barrie’s first assist total illustrates he is more involved offensively, mainly because of his ability to join the rush and activate inside the offensive zone.

But what about their overall game?

Barrie was -5 in GF-GA over these six seasons, but was outshot by 270 shots, and had 233 more scoring chances against. Barrie is more offensive and, not surprisingly, he had more offensive zone starts.

It is interesting to note Klefbom was -54 in GF-GA, but outshot the opposition by 79, yet when on the ice the Oilers allowed 160 more scoring chances against.

Thanks to PuckIQ.com we can look at which players they played against. At PuckIQ they break down the forwards by elite, middle and gritensity. Defending against Connor McDavid is different than defending Jujhar Khaira. It isn’t an exact science, but it does give us a look at how often they play against those players. I like it because it also illustrates the fact there are more middle tier players than the other two.

*DFF stands for dangerous Fenwick For and DFA is Dangerous Fenwick Against.**
** FO/60 is Faceoff per 60 minutes of TOI. Puck IQ’s theory is that the more FO/60 a player sees the more the coach is specifically deploying them in that situation.**

Klefbom played the most minutes against Middle, followed by Elite and Gritensity. However, he and the Oilers got crushed in goals against when facing lower competition. When on the ice he was outscored 95-66. It is interesting to note the save% was much lower against Gritensity than elite. I’d have to go look at video, but those players have a tendency to grind out goals, more than play a finesse game. When he was on the ice v. Gritensity the Oilers allowed 95 goals in 1,785 minutes, but only 90 GA in 2,232 minutes against Elite forwards.

I will need to look at that more, but I’ve felt the Oilers lost too many battles in front of the net and on the boards the past few years, and this seems to match. Most lso, the Oilers bottom end of their forward group wasn’t that skilled, and spent more time in their own zone. We would need to analyze every goal against to get a more accurate picture. This is just my perception.

I quickly looked at Darnell Nurse’s numbers, as he has been on the team the longest with Klefbom.
In five seasons he played 2,121 v. Elite and outscored opponents 87-70 (55.4GF%).
He played 2,389 v. Middle and was outscored 84-112 (42.8GF%).
He played 1,840 v. Gritensity and was outscored 91-102 (47.1GF).

His overall 47.9GF% (262GF-284GA) was slightly higher than Klefbom’s 45.5GF% (244-288).

Now let’s look at Barrie.

Barrie played the most against Middle, then Gritensity followed by Elite. He also played 1,600 more minutes at 5×4 than Klefbom the past six seasons. His GF% was virtually identical against Elite and Gritensity at 50.2%. And he was outscored 129-122 against Middle.

Barrie was on the ice for more dangerous Fenwick against than Klefbom, but his 49.6 GF% was much higher than Klefbom’s 45.5GF%.

Here are their GF/60 and GA/60 each year.

Barrie has consistently produced more offence and been on the ice for more goals, while each of them have three seasons of having a lower GA/60.

Barrie made the playoffs three times, 2018-2020, while Klefbom made the postseason in 2017 and 2020. The Avs were awful in 2017, while Edmonton really struggled in 2015 and their GA reflect that. Overall the Avs were a better team the past five seasons, so that will impact the numbers. The quality of your teammates will play a factor.

However, I don’t believe Klefbom is a defensive stalwart, and while his injury is not ideal, I view the combination of Barrie and Caleb Jones replacing Klefbom and Matt Benning as an overall slight upgrade for the Oilers. Granted, I’m a big bullish on Jones and feel he is ready to take a step.

What do you think about the changes on defence?