Expansion draft 1.0
By Jason Gregor
7 years ago
Tom from GeneralFanager.com asked me to submit a list of who I thought Edmonton would protect in the 2017 NHL expansion draft. It was based on today’s roster, but I’m fully aware the list could change depending on how players perform as well as potential trades.
The Oilers’ list was pretty straight forward for me when you look at who is exempt, players with only two NHL seasons, and those who have to be protected, players with no movement clauses. Today, I see the Oilers protecting Milan Lucic, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Brandon Davidson and Cam Talbot.
However, when I started filling out the other team’s list (the page at GeneralFanager is awesome), I was surprised at some of the tough decisions teams will need to make next June.
Right now the Oilers don’t have any extremely difficult decisions, but if Patrick Maroon plays a full season like he did the 16 games with the Oilers last year, or Nail Yakupov has a breakout year, there might be some debate over what they do.
Some other teams, however, will have tough decisions.
Anaheim: They have to protect Kevin Bieksa, and that means they will likely lose one of their good young D-men, or trade them away for less than market value. They also have to protect Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry and Ryan Kesler, whom they likely would have anyways, and their fourth forward will probably be Rickard Rakell. Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler and John Gibson will also be protected.
That mean Simon Despres and Josh Manson will be exposed, and I’d guess Las Vegas GM George McPhee would scoop Manson up instantly.
Arizona: Their toughest decision will come in goal. Do they protect an aging Mike Smith, or if Louis Domingue plays well do they protect him? I see them protecting seven forwards and three D-men, mainly because Mike Stone is currently a UFA at the end of the season. I could see them leaving him exposed, because Vegas likely wouldn’t claim him, and then signing him to an extension before July 1st.
Boston: They have to protect David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, David Backes and Zdeno Chara. They could ask Brad Marchand to wait and not re-sign until after the draft, so they could protect Matt Beleskey, Jimmy Hayes and Ryan Spooner. They will likely lose one of Adam McQuaid, Kevan Miller or Joe Morrow.
Buffalo: Today, they don’t have any tough decisions, but if Jake McCabe has a breakout year, then they will likely protect four D-men, and then they’d have some small debate over which four forwards to protect. Kulikov is a UFA at the end of the season, and he could complicate the situation. Right now I see them leaving Evander Kane exposed. His off-ice antics are not good. Numerous sources have told me owner Terry Pegula is not happy with Kane and I don’t see him in Buffalo long-term.
Calgary: Their tough decisions will occur if Jyrki Jokipakka has a strong season and they want to protect four D-men along with Giordano, Hamilton and Brodie. If they go with four D-men, then Troy Brouwer and Michael Frolik would be exposed, because they are for sure protecting Gaudreau, Monahan, Backlund and Bennett.
Carolina: Their most emotional decision will be deciding between Cam Ward or Eddie Lack in goal. They will protect seven forwards and three D-men based on today’s roster. After Justin Faulk, their other two D spots are not obvious. Ryan Murphy, Trevor Carrick, Keegan Lowe and Dennis Robertson are the four they will choose between, unless they re-sign Matt Tennyson before the expansion draft. Carolina is in a great spot to trade for a D-man, and not worry about having to expose a top young defender.
Chicago: They have eight players with NMC, so Kane, Toews, Hossa, Anisimov, Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson and Crawford will be protected. I’d guess they’d protect Trevor van Riemsdyk so that means Marcus Kruger would be available.
Colorado: Nikita Zadorov’s play will determine if they go with four forwards and four D-men, or with seven forwards and three D. They have to protect 36-year-old Francois Beauchemin, and if Zadorov plays like they hope he will then he’ll join Erik Johnson and Tyson Barrie among the D. Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog are easy choices, and I suspect Carl Soderberg would be the fourth forward. They could lose young goalie Calvin Pickard and if Mikhail Grigorenko has a good season he could attract Vegas’ interest.
JACKETS IN TOUGH
Columbus: They are are in a brutal spot due to NMC. They have to protect Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno, David Clarkson and Scott Hartnell and Sergei Bobrovsky. Clarkson will waive his, so they won’t have to protect him, but that won’t solve all their problems.They will for sure protect Brandon Saad and most likely Cam Atkinson and Boone Jenner, so they can only protect three defenders. Seth Jones, Ryan Murray and David Savard would seem obvious, but they love Jack Johnson. Would they expose Savard? They’d try to trade him or Johnson first. They will also have to expose goalie Joonas Korpisalo, and if he continues to develop that’d be a huge blow. I’m stunned their management group received contract extensions yesterday, considering their place in the standings and the amount of bad contracts they’ve signed or acquired.
Dallas: They will expose one of Kari Lehtonen or Antti Niemi. They will only have a tough decision if young Valeri Nichuskin plays well. He’s been inconsistent thus far, but he’s only 21 years old and they will protect Spezza, Benn, Seguin and Eakin. I think their expansion strategy will depend on how Nichuskin and Jamie Oleksiak play this year. If one has a very good year, it will likely swing their decision between 7-3-1 or 4-4-1.
Detroit: Jimmy Howard will be exposed in goal. He’s 32 and has a big contract. If they go with seven forwards, which seems likely due to all the young forwards they have, it will be interesting to see who they protect on the blueline. Danny Dekeyser and Brendan Smith seem obvious. But then only one of Green (31), Kronwall (35), Ericsson (32) and youngsters Marchenko (25) and Ouellet (23) can be protected. If one of the young guys steps up maybe Green is available. The Wings will be an interesting team to watch.
Florida: Signing James Reimer means they will expose Roberto Luongo, but I doubt Vegas claims him over one of the Panthers young D-men. The Panthers will protect forwards Barkov, Huberdeau, Trocheck, Bjugstad, Smith and Jokinen and then choose another, maybe MacKenzie. Jagr is currently a pending UFA, so he likely waits to sign. Yandle, Demers and Ekblad will be their D-men, but they will likely have to expose two Edmonton products in Alex Petrovic and Mark Pysyk.
Los Angeles: They will be able to protect all their top players. For sure Dustin Brown will be available, but will Vegas want him for five more seasons? I could also see them leaving Marian Gaborik exposed. If Vegas doesn’t take one of those two, they will likely lose one of Forbort, Nolan or King. I’m guessing they protect four D-men with McNabb being the fourth behind Doughty, Muzzin and Martinez.
D-MAN AVAILABLE?
Minnesota: The Wild are in a tough spot, because they have five decent defenders. They will protect Suter and Spurgeon and two of Brodin, Scandella and Dumba, meaning one of the final three will be exposed, or more likely traded. But if they trade one, they will still lose a decent forward. Parise, Koivu and Pominville have NMC so that means they can only protect one of Coyle, Granlund, Niederreiter, Haula and Staal. Chuck Fletcher will be really busy pre-draft trying to get some picks or younger players for an asset or two.
Montreal: They don’t have a lot of depth on defence, and that’s why I’d expect them to protect four (Weber, Petry, Beaulieu and Emelin) rather than expose one of the latter two. I know the latter two aren’t proven or domiinant, but acquiring proven D is very difficult. I’d lean to them protecting four and four, and Pacioretty, Gallagher and Galchenyuk are easy choices. I’d guess they would protect 34-year-old Plekanec as their fourth. That leaves Andrew Shaw and David Desharnais exposed, unless they feel those two are more important than Emelin or Beaulieu and decide to protect seven forwards.
Nashville: Their eight skaters are pretty straight forward. Subban, Josi, Ekholm, Ellis, Forsberg, Neal, Smith and Johansen. Colin Wilson would be available at this point. If he plays like he has in the postseason, then I could see Poile trying to move him rather than lose him for nothing.
New Jersey: The Devils will protect seven forwards: Hall, Henrique, Zajac, Palmieri, Cammalleri, Josefson and Clowe (NMC). Clowe is hurt and now an assistant coach so he likely would waive his NMC, so they could protect another fwd. So the three D they will protect are Greene, Severson and one of Merrill, Moore, Lovejoy or Gormley.
New York Islanders: They will have a really tough decision on defence. They will protect Boychuk, Leddy and Hamonic, but they can only protect one of De Haan, Pulock or Hickey. De Haan is clearly their #4 right now, but they are really high on Pulock. Up front they also have some tough decisions. Tavares and Ladd (NMC) will be kept. They can only keep two of Strome, Nelson and Lee. The Islanders will lose a very good young player. I’d also watch to see what they do with their goaltending.
New York Rangers: They have to protect Dan Girardi and Staal (NMC) and of course Ryan McDonagh on the backend. They will protect seven forwards, but who is the question. Stepan, Kreider, Zuccarello, Zibanejad, Miller, Hayes and Nash seem like obvious choices. However, if Fast and Lindberg play well it could change, and I wonder if they would roll the dice and expose Nash, because they don’t think Vegas would take his $7.8 mill contract with only one year left. Nash had 39 points in 2014 and 36 last year. If he only scores 40 points this year, it will be something to watch.
Ottawa Senators: They are another team who will lose a very good player. I’d guess they will protect four D: Phaneuf (NMC), Karlsson, Methot and Ceci, which means they will lose a quality forward. Ryan (NMC), Hoffman, Brassard and Turris are there, but also Stone, Smith and MacArthur. Maybe they choose to go with three D, and expose Methot because he is 31 and they don’t want to lose a young, skilled forward. I’m sure they will have some interesting internal debates throughout the season.
Philadelphia: They aren’t in a tough spot. They will protect seven forwards: Giroux, Voracek, Schenn, Couturier, Simmonds, Read and Raffl. On defence they have Gostisbehere, Gudas and Manning. I assume they expose Andrew MacDonald and try to shed his $5 million salary. They could re-sign Del Zotto before the draft and expose Manning. No real issues in Philly right now. They also could expose Read and hope Vegas takes his $3 million and protect Laughton or Cousins.
GOALIE CONCERNS
Pittsburgh: The Pens will have a tough decision in goal. Will they trade Fleury (NMC) so they can keep Murray, or if Fleury plays great will they risk it? They might lose a young D-man as well. They will protect Letang, Maatta and one of Cole, Pouliot or Dumoulin (Daley is currently UFA at end of season). They will have some interesting decisions leading up to the draft, especially if Murray plays solid, but not spectacular.
San Jose: With Thornton and Marleau’s contracts up at the end of the season the Sharks will only have one tough decision. If they keep seven forwards then it will be Pavelski, Couture, Boedker, Hertl, Karlsson, Nieto and Ward with Burns, Vlasic and Braun on defence.That means 35-year-old Paul Martin and Brendan Dillon will be exposed on defence. If they like one of those D-men that much they could then leave Karlsson, Nieto and Ward exposed.
St. Louis: Shattenkirk’s pending free agency allows them to protect four D in Pietrangelo, Bouwmeester, Edmundson and Gunnarson. Up front they’d keep Tarasenko, Stastny, Schwartz and Lehtera. If they re-sign Steen during the season that changes everything and they’d keep seven forwards and expose Gunnarson.
Tampa Bay: They have four NMC: Stamkos, Callahan, Filppula and Hedman. They have so much depth up front that even when they protect seven forwards they might have to expose Tyler Johson. Outside of the three aforementioned forwards with NMCs, they will protect Kucherov, Palat, Killorn and Drouin. Maybe they keep Johnson and expose Killorn. Either way they are in tough on offence. On the bluline they will keep Hedman, Stralman and Coburn. Which exposes Garrison and one of their young D. If Sustr or Koekkoek take a step this season then they will have even more tough decisions.
Toronto: The Leafs won’t have any really tough decisions. They can protect Kadri, Van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Komarov, Martin, Rychel, Holland, Reilly, Gardiner, Marincin and Andersen. I assume they will expose Lupul and Corrado. I expect the Leafs to make a few trades from teams who would rather get a draft pick or prospect than lose a quality player for nothing to Las Vegas.
Vancouver: Three NMCs among forwards, the Sedins and Eriksson means they will go 7-3-1. Those three along with Sutter, Horvat, Hansen and Baertschi with Edler, Tanev and Gudbranson on the blueline and Markstrom in goal. Like the Leafs, the Canucks have room to acquire a decent forward before the expansion draft.
Washington: Will they ask Karl Alzner to delay signing after the draft so they can protect Orlov to go with Niskanen and Carlsson? Up front they will keep Ovechkin, Backstrom, Johansson, Kuznetsov, Burakovsky, Wilson and Eller with Holtby in goal. Oshie is set to be a UFA, but they could re-sign him if they wish and expose Eller.
Winnipeg: They are in a good position. They will go 4-4-1 and protect Schiefele, Wheeler, Little, Perreault, Byfuglien, Myers, Enstrom, Trouba and Hellebuyck. If their contract talks with Trouba don’t progress and they trade him, they will have room to protect whichever player they bring back. They have a lot of young forwards who have yet to reach their potential, and if any of Burmistrov, Armia, Dano, Copp or Lowry have a breakout year, then the Jets will have to adjust their strategy.
WRAP UP
The new expansion rules will ensure Vegas’ will have a better expansion draft than Nashville had in 1998.
As the season progresses, I’ll be curious to see how many pending UFAs will want to wait until after the expansion draft to sign an extension with their team. We often see numerous re-signings during the season, and while some teams have room to do it, others would prefer to wait, so they can protect another player.
It will be fascinating to watch how these lists change throughout the year. McPhee told me his management team will do numerous mock drafts during the year.
“We are going to go through that exercise (mock drafts) a number of times to really make sure we have a clear understanding of all the rules and how everything works. We will do it throughout the season because we don’t want to wait until the end and have 15 questions for the league on how things works. It will help us with the process by going through it during the season,” said McPhee.
McPhee also said they will start developing their expansion draft plan this week. “We will have all of our scouts together for the first time and we will formulate our plan of attack. It will be exciting and I’m looking forward to hearing their ideas on how we should approach the draft so we can be competitive as soon as possible,” said McPhee.
Considering how difficult it is to find D-men, I’d expect Vegas to draft a lot of defenders, in hopes of trading a few to acquire more assets and most importantly giving them the best chance at building a strong foundation.
PARTING SHOT
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