Expectations: Ales Hemsky

Ales Hemsky isn’t a mystery to Oilers fans. He was a first round pick of the team back in 2001, 13th overall, and was almost certainly the best draft pick of the Kevin Prendergast era. His entire 444 game NHL career has been spent with the Oilers, and for the last few years he’s been the most skilled player on the team.

How does the OilersNation see Hemsky performing this season?

The following chart shows five things, each represented by coloured lines. The thin blue lines represent reader projections, which ranged from 59 points (OilerBill) to 90 points (duuby). The thick black line in the middle represents two points: the reader’s average point prediction for Hemsky (77 points) and Hemsky’s career-best total (also 77 points). The red lines represent the projections of our writers, while the light green line represents Hemsky’s best offensive output over the past three seasons.

A few things stand out:

51 of 93 readers (54.8%) expect Ales Hemsky to either match or exceed the best offensive totals of his career in 2010-11.

None of the writers are as optimistic about Hemsky as even the average reader; at the very top end of the spectrum Jason Gregor predicts Hemsky to record 76 points, a hair below his career-best total (and the average reader prediction).

Leaving aside Hemsky’s injury-shortened 2009-10 season, since the NHL lockout he has averaged 67 points per season. 7 of 93 readers (7.5%) have Hemsky pegged to match or fall slightly below that total, while two of six writers have him pegged at 66 or 67 points.