Expectations: The Big Three Rookies

All through training camp, there was no real mystery about what was driving optimism among members of the OilersNation: the big three rookies. On most teams, any one of Taylor Hall, Magnus Paajarvi or Jordan Eberle would be sufficient reason for optimism; breaking in all three at once has done a lot to turn around perception of a team coming off a bad year.

The readers of the OilersNation have projected all three rookies to score in the 40-50 point range. After Magnus Paajarvi’s tremendous preseason, he is projected to have the highest total, followed by Jordan Eberle, with Taylor Hall a few points back.

The chart above (helpfully in a single colour, for Wanye’s bastard child) shows how many people projected what point totals for Paajarvi. Some key numbers:

To recap, the average reader expects Paajarvi to score 10 points above the projected translation, while the six writers expect Paajarvi to hit the exact number predicted by Gabriel Desjardins.

The chart above shows how many people projected what point totals for Eberle. Some key numbers:

To recap, the average reader expects Paajarvi to score one points below the projected translation, while the six writers expect Paajarvi to score two points less than predicted by Gabriel Desjardins. It appears that for all the hype, everyone has remained remarkably grounded on their expectation for Jordan Eberle – and that he might be the rookie most likely to surpass expectations.

The chart above shows how many people projected what point totals for Hall. Some key numbers:

*It’s worth noting that two readers, DimebagDave and dohfOs, excluded Hall entirely – perhaps expecting him to be reassigned after nine games.

Taylor Hall appears to be the player that breaks all the rules. Gabriel Desjardin’s league translation number, at 46 points, is higher than the total expected by the writers (45) which in turn is higher than the total expected by the readers (43).

I’m not sure if it’s a desire not to place too much on the shoulders of rookies coming in, or if the examples of Steve Stamkos and John Tavares loom large, but as a group Oilers fans have remarkably reasonable expectations for the three rookies. Magnus Paajarvi’s preseason performance appears to have moved his number a little higher than he’s likely to attain, but Hall and Eberle’s expected performance is right in line with what their junior numbers would suggest.  Also of interest is the fact that readers and writers are in agreement on Hall and Eberle, but differ on Paajarvi – suggesting perhaps that the preseason was less moving for the latter.