Exploiting Cap Hell: Detroit Red Wings Edition
7 years ago
For the second year in a row, it appears that NHL teams living close to the salary cap are in for a difficult season. We don’t have a final salary cap number yet and won’t until the NHLPA decides what it wants to do with is escalator option, but it’s reasonable to expect something between the current level of $71.4 million and a possible high of $74 million.
For a lot of teams, that means trouble. For clubs like the Edmonton Oilers, it might mean opportunity. Today’s potential target: the Detroit Red Wings.
Previously in this series:
Depth Chart
Detroit is in a weird position, with perhaps the most complicated salary situation of any team considered in this series.
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Total cap hit: $59.2 million
Total cap space: $12.2 to $14.8 million
This is complicated, so I’m going to oversimplify it to three main problems and three possible avenues for relief:
- Petr Mrazek is Detroit’s No. 1 goaltender and is coming off a bargain contract, and the question is whether the Red Wings go long-term with him rather than looking for a bridge deal. The problem is that he’s a fourth-year pro, meaning that a two-year deal would put him just a single season away from unrestricted free agency, thus putting power in his hands. I’m expecting a long-term pact, but we’ll see.
- Danny DeKeyser was Detroit’s No. 2 defenceman this past season, and given that Niklas Kronwall is 35 and averaged just 12 seconds more to game, it’s a reasonable bet that he’ll be the team’s No. 1 option next year. I’m not a big believer in the player, though I note that he played a lot with left shots Kyle Quincey and Jonathan Ericsson on his starboard side and that isn’t helpful for anyone. I do think the Red Wings are sold and fully expect a long-term deal here. DeKeyser had a $2.25 million salary last year; I’d bet that at least doubles over term.
- A bunch of unrestricted free agents will need to be replaced. Brad Richards and Darren Helm are the headliners, as well as Quincey on the back end. I’m not looking at UFAs here, but should mention in passing that both Richards and Helm are plausible third-line pivots. Regardless, Detroit has two or three holes in its top nine that need to be addressed either internally or externally.
Now, the obvious possible solutions:
- Johan Franzen is likely to spend next year on injured reserve, though the detail of the NHL’s LTIR rules mean that Detroit is *much* better off if it can fit him on its roster for Day 1 of the season.
- If Pavel Datsyuk comes back, that fills a big need for Detroit. If he doesn’t, the Wings are stuck with his cap hit (over-35 rule) but could plausibly trade him to a budget team if they supply a sufficient sweetener in the deal.
- A Jimmy Howard trade would clear serious money, but is certainly easier said than done. He posted a 0.906 save percentage this season, and this on the heels of two 0.910 save percentage campaigns. The last time he put up starter-level numbers was 2012-13.
For Edmonton, the issue with a trade is that the two possible trade solutions (Datsyuk and Howard) are bad fits for the team. Still, there are some interesting potential targets in Detroit.
Targets for Edmonton
Unless the Red Wings have soured on Mike Green, the plausible targets for the Oilers here are less about cap relief and more about roster pressure and restricted free agency.
Detroit has a trio of young defencemen who must clear waivers to be assigned to the AHL next year. Xavier Ouellett is a left-shooting rearguard, but both Alexey Marchenko and Ryan Sproul are right shots and plausibly of interest to Edmonton. Both defenceman are 6’3” and bring some ability with the puck, but neither is a massive point producer. Sproul seems particularly interesting because he can shoot the puck; he had 12 goals in the AHL this past season and might be available at a relatively low purchase price.
Brendan Smith is an interesting player, but it’s hard to find space for him on the left side of the defensive depth chart.
A little higher up the food chain, Riley Sheahan would be an interesting option to consider as a third-line centre. The 24-year-old restricted free agent plays in all situations (he averaged 2:02 per game on the penalty kill) and is listed at 6’3”, 222 pounds. He doesn’t shoot right and one would think Detroit gets him locked up, but it’s worth keeping his name in mind. If you’re reading this and thinking you know him from somewhere but you can’t remember the details, you may be thinking of this Teletubby story.
The other player I’d note here is Teemu Pulkkinen, a right-shooting winger who scored 34 goals in 46 AHL games in 2014-15. He was sheltered this year and struggled to score over 36 NHL games, but he also managed a 59 percent Fenwick rating and had a terrible on-ice shooting percentage. The man can shoot the puck and as he’s a restricted free agent he’s at least worth noting.
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