Five reasons the Oilers aren’t for real

A month ago, I gave five reasons why the Oilers were for real. They were 9-4-1 at that time. They’ve gone 9-8-3 since, a respectable record but a bit of a step back. Today we’ll look into why the Oilers might not be as good as their hot start.

At one point, both @Mikko Koskinen and @Mike Smith were running hot and an even split in games looked like exactly what both goalies needed. Both have regressed since. Smith had a .919 save percentage in 8 games, he’s now at .896 in 18 games. Koskinen was at .922 through 7 games, he’s now at .914 in 19 games.

Koskinen and Smith looked like a sterling tandem at the beginning of the season. Smith has struggled recently, including six goals against in Minnesota, and Koskinen’s six goals against the Hurricanes don’t help his case either. The Oilers did really well when they were getting good goaltending. How will they fare with closer-to-average goaltending? Koskinen started even hotter last season. Maybe a lighter workload prevents another crash like Koskinen’s poor second-half last season.

Koskinen should provide at least average goaltending. Koskinen might be closer to his .906 save percentage last season going forward, but that might be another to warrant the starter’s job anyway. Can the Oilers keep winning if Koskinen and Smith cool down?

The Oilers were doing well in @Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ minutes without McDavid on the ice, a crucial part of the team’s success early on, but now Neal looks more and more like a power play specialist and Nugent-Hopkins can do it all by himself. Nugent-Hopkins and @James Neal were winning the shot and goal battle through 14 games. Nugent-Hopkins and Neal are still above water in shot attempts, but they’re now 7-10 in goals five-on-five. The Oilers had a 7-4 goal differential five-on-five in Nugent-Hopkins minutes without McDavid. They’re now 10-13 in those same minutes.

Nugent-Hopkins once again doesn’t have any help to get results on the Oilers’ second line and that’s a huge issue if Tippett is insistent on McDavid and Draisaitl sticking together on the top line. McDavid and Draisaitl will do their thing, but that leaves a thin bottom nine. Nugent-Hopkins results are impressive given the wingers have mostly been Neal and @Alex Chiasson, but he’ll need help if the Oilers want to stay at the top of the Pacific division. Maybe that makes separating the Oilers’ nuclear McDavid-Draisaitl line. Maybe that means Ken Holland looks into the trade market. Nugent-Hopkins can’t do it on his own.

McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are playing too much. It’s that simple. 40-percent of the season has been played and both players are playing over 22 minutes a game. Draisaitl is 10 seconds from averaging 23 minutes a game.

Forwards aren’t meant to play as much as McDavid and Draisaitl have. Tippett has to run his top players like this. Few options remain beyond McDavid and Draisaitl on the roster. Both players are at least 50 minutes ahead of the next forward, @Jack Eichel, in all-situations minutes. Draisaitl leads McDavid by about 14 minutes for the league lead.

The Oilers are 18-12-4, so Tippett will probably keep running McDavid and Draisaitl as much as he has. Can the Oilers’ superstars sustain this workload through a full season?

The Oilers started the season on an extremely favourable schedule. They’ve had the third easiest schedule to date. From now till the end of the season the Oilers have the fifth-toughest schedule. Meanwhile, the @Calgary Flames have the easiest and the @Arizona Coyotes and @Anaheim Ducks aren’t too far behind. The Oilers have some points in the bag they’ll probably need as they face better teams. Not getting points against teams like Ottawa, Vancouver, and Minnesota hurts.

Which team generates shot attempts better? The @Edmonton Oilers or the @Ottawa Senators? The Senators have been slightly better so far.

Much of the Oilers’ success is on special teams. They have the league’s best power play and a top-ten penalty kill as well. I’m not convinced a McDavid-led power play can’t be this good, but I’m less convinced the Oilers continue to save  .905 of the shots faced shorthanded.

For 12 of the past 13 years, you’d be right always betting against the Oilers. The Oilers haven’t proven to be a consistently good team. They had a great season in 2016-17, but promptly fell back to earth. The Oilers had good starts under Todd McLellan and Ken Hitchcock last season but couldn’t sustain that level of play. Maybe this year’s Oilers are different. They’re played mostly well through 34 games, although some cracks are showing beneath the surface.