Game Day Quick Hits: Edmonton Oilers at Winnipeg Jets

The Oilers players and coaches who stayed in Edmonton over Christmas left very early this morning so they could get to Winnipeg in time for a morning skate. While those who spent Christmas at home out east or in the States went directly to Winnipeg. The Oilers have won four straight and are playing their best hockey of the season. Oilersnation collectively held its breath on Saturday night when Connor McDavid left the game after blocking a shot with his left ankle, but 20 minutes after the game, Todd McLellan said, “The X-ray came back negative. Nothing is broken. His foot will be sore, but I expect him to play in Winnipeg.”

I tweeted out McLellan’s comment and the Gifs and responses I recieved from that tweet were hilarious. It is rare to see a fanbase, in any sport, be in complete agreement on a topic, but every fan was elated to read McDavid wouldn’t miss any games. The Oilers are playing well, but the Winnipeg Jets are excellent on home ice. This should be an exciting matchup.

1. Last year nine teams had 100+ points, and as we exit the Christmas break five of them are not in a playoff spot. Pittsburgh had 111 points and are currently in 10th place in the east, 39 points, three points out of the playoffs. Chicago had 109 and their 39 points has them one point out. Minnesota had 106 points and they are tied with the Blackhawks, one point back. The Oilers and Canadiens had 103 respectively and each has 36 now. The Oilers are four points out, while the Habs are six back. Many good teams have had a slow start, but how many of these five do you think get back in? I’ll say three: Pittsburgh, Chicago and Edmonton.

2. The Jets are 12-3-1 on home ice. In their last 13 home games they are 11-1-1 and have outscored their opponents 60-28. Most of their home games have been blowouts. Their three regulation losses have been by scores of 7-2, 5-2 and 5-2 and nine of their 12 victories have been by 3 or more goals. In their four losses (including OT loss) they’ve allowed 22 goals. In their 12 victories they’ve only allowed a total of 19.

3. Meanwhile the Oilers have won five of their last six road games and outscored the home team 27-14. Their only loss was 1-0 in Toronto when they outshot the Maple Leafs 41-23.

4. The Jets special teams have been outstanding at home. In their previous13 games the Jets powerplay is 43.4%, scoring 20 goals on 46 opportunities, while their penalty kill is 85%. And it is even better recently allowing one goal in the past nine games, killing off 29 of 30 penalties (96.6%). The Oilers special teams has shown a pulse on the road recently. They have four PP goals in their past four games (4 of 18 for 22.2%), while their PK is 10 for 11 (91%) in those four games. Without question JetsNation has more confidence in their special teams than Oilersnation does at this moment, but on the road the Oilers PK has been quite good, 6th best, at 84.1%. It will need to be alert tonight against the league’s best home PP. The Jets are a 35.1%, and as mentioned earlier, 43.4% in their past 13 games. The Oilers need to avoid the multiple trips to the sin bin.

5. The most impressive aspect of the Jets home powerplay success is they don’t get many opportunities. They’ve had 57 home powerplays, which is 24th most in the NHL. Teams have been fairly disciplined against the Jets in Winnipeg, but they’ve still crushed them on the man advantage. However, the Jets have the most road PP opportunities, 76, but they are only 15.8% on the road.

6. Since November 22nd the Oilers have scored the second most goals in the NHL, 55, while the Jets have the third most, 54. The Islanders lead with 56. McDavid leads the Oilers with 17 points in 15 games, while 12 others have at least seven points. Meanwhile Nikolaj Ehlers has nine goals and 16 points for the Jets. Blake Wheeler has 16 points and Patrik Laine has eight goals. The Jets have four excellent scorers. Wheeler has 41 points, Mark Schiefele has 37, while Laine and Ehlers have 29 and lead the Jets with 18 and 17 goals respectively. The Oilers top-four has McDavid with 43, Draisaitl with 29 while Nugent-Hopkins and Lucic have 26. There will be a lot of offensive flair on the ice tonight.

7. The Oilers are looking to win their fifth consecutive game tonight. They won five games in a row twice last season, and also won four in a row twice, won three consecutive games four times and won two in row five times. Forty of their wins came in streaks of at least two games. The Oilers had 18 wins in their first 36 games on December 27th last season. This year they have 17 wins in 36 games, but they only have one four-game winning streak and two two-game winning streaks. Up until this winning streak they were unable to get on a roll. They only have one less win than last year, but they haven’t been nearly as consistent. They also had six OTL but have two this year.

8. Looking at the Oilers through 36 games last year to this year. They had 42 points last year (18-12-6) and have 36 this season (17-17-2). The other numbers might surprise you.

Year         EVG       PPG               SHG      Total      Shots For       Shot Against
2016         75         25 (of 118)      3         103         1124               1092
2017         85         17  (of 101)     6         108         1246               1086

The Oilers have had 17 fewer PP chances, and their PP is at 16.8% compared to 21.2% last year. They have not seen an increase in penalties despite the crackdown on slashing on the hands/stick. The Oilers have allowed fewer shots than last year, but have allowed 17 more goals.

Year         EVGA       PPGA               SHGA      Total
2016         72           20 (of 111)        3             95
2017         78           31 (of 114)        3            112

They have allowed 17 more goals, and eleven have come on the PK. They’ve been penalized at a very similar rate to last year, but their PK is 72.8% compared to 82% last year.
The Oilers were +3 in GF-GA at even strength last season and they are +7 this year. If they can figure out their special teams, and even become respectable on the PK, they are poised for a very strong second half.

9. It was about this time last season that Leon Draisaitl moved up and played with McDavid. They become a dangerous duo. I’ve read some suggesting the recent switch to McDavid, Draisaitl and RNH as the three centres is why the Oilers are suddenly winning, but remember for much of the first half last season all three played centre as well. The move this year has coincided with the team playing better defensively. They aren’t giving up easy goals like they were earlier in the season. They’ve eliminated the five-star mistake. Balanced scoring has helped, no question, but the Mark Letestu/Zack Kassian duo has been more productive than any other duo other than Lucic/McDavid in the past 15 games. The move to three centres has given the Oilers a different look, no question, and more players are playing better, at least at EV, but the bigger improvement, in my eyes, has come in the defensive zone and Cam Talbot returning to his form of last season.

10. Talbot has won seven consecutive games, the longest streak of his career. He has a 1.98GAA and .928sv% during the streak. He has only allowed nine EV goals, stopping 163 of 172 shots (.947sv%). He has allowed give PP goals on 14 shots (.736sv%). In the three games before his injury he allowed three PP goals on three shots, one each to Boston, Detroit and Arizona. But since returning from his injury he has stopped 14 of 16 PP shots. He was hung out to dry on a few powerplay goals earlier in the season, and he didn’t make some saves he should have, but in the four games since his two-week injury break he has been much better in every aspect of his game. The team is playing much better in front of him as well, which has helped, but Talbot has looked much better after playing below his capabilities in his first 19 starts.

11. Connor Hellebuyck had a .925 sv% in his first 15 starts, but in his last 12 starts it is down to .913sv%. Not trending the right direction. He hasn’t been able to find any consistency lately. He had a .970sv% last game, but it was .882 the game before, then 1.000, then .833, then .962, .857, .842, 1.000, .871, .885 and .895. Seven times in his last eleven starts his sv% has been .895 or worse.

12. Don’t be surprised to see some early scoring. The Jets have been involved in the most first period goals of any team in the NHL. They’ve scored 42, and allowed 38 for a total of 80. The Maple Leafs (77) and Islanders (76) are the only teams to have 70+ first period goals. The Oilers have to be aware of the Jets quick starts, but they should also be able to create many chances.