Game Day Quick Hits: Oilers vs. Islanders

The Oilers play nine of their next eleven games on the road, and that might be a good thing considering they only have three wins in nine home games thus far.

Cam Talbot is 1-2-1 on the road with a .924sv% and a 2.34 GAA, and that includes the game in Vancouver when he was pulled 32 seconds into the second period after allowing three goals on seven shots. He has stopped 94 of his last 99 shots on the road (.949sv%) and the Oilers will need to him be sharp when they face the NHL’s third highest scoring team tonight.

1. The Islanders top line is rolling. John Tavares is second in the NHL in goals with 12 and tied for fourth in points with 18. Josh Bailey also has 18 points and Anders Lee has eight goals and 15 points. They’ve combined for 51 points. The Oilers top-six scorers (McDavid, Draisaitl,Maroon, RNH, Lucic and Strome) have combined for 55 points.

2. The Islanders have Matt Barzal (13 points) and Jordan Eberle (11 points) on their second line with Andrew Ladd. They also have eight forwards with three or more goals, while the Oilers have four. The Islanders have scored 35 5×5 goals, fourth most in the NHL, and their powerplay is eighth at 22.4%. The Oilers need to play defensively like they did in Chicago, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia on their last road trip if they want to keep pace with the high-scoring Islanders.

3. While the Islanders score a lot, they are also allowing a fair amount of goals. They sit 21st in goals/game at 3.21. The Oilers are 23rd at 3.31. The Islanders are winning because, so far, they are outscoring their mistakes. The Oilers are struggling to defend and their offence is still dead last in the NHL. Not a winning combination.

4. Sending Kailer Yamamoto back to Spokane in the WHL was without question the correct decision. He earned a month of his NHL salary, just over $160,000 and gained some experience, but now he can focus on ripping up the WHL and then trying to win gold with the USA at the World Junior Championships. While I understand the enthusiasm and excitement of many, I caution those who believe it is a slam dunk both Yamamoto and Puljujarvi will be the top-two right-wingers for the Oilers in the very near future. Both have potential, no question, but it is far from a guarantee. Both are only 19 years old. It would be great if they were in the top-six next season, but the Oilers should not be banking on it.

5. I don’t think the Islanders can go very far if Jaroslav Halak is their starter. In my eyes his height, or lack thereof, is too much of a disadvantage in today’s game. Since the start of the 2014/2015 season he has a .914 SV%. Respectable, but not good enough to take you deep in the playoffs. The Islanders wanted Thomas Greiss to be their starter this year, but he’s struggled with a .896 SV% and he’s only started more than 20 games twice in his career. He is 31 years old and he’s a backup who can play well, like he did in 2015/2016 with a .925% in 38 starts, but he isn’t a proven starter.

6. Greiss will be the fifth backup the Oilers have faced this season. Their only victory over a backup came in their 2-1 OT victory in Chicago. They only have seven goals on 168 shots versus backups thus far. At some point, they need to be hungrier and more desperate around the net. This will be Greiss’ seventh start of the season and his SV% by game has been .808, .943, .976, .903, .818 and .886. He has allowed 13 goals on 99 shots in his last three starts. Colorado, Minnesota and San Jose found ways to score on him and the Wild and Sharks are 23rd and 27th respectively in goals scored this season. Yes, the Oilers are the worst with only 30 goals in 13 games, but their offence should not be this feeble.

7. Milan Lucic has 12-15-27 in 29 career games versus the Islanders and he registered a point in 21 of those 29 games. Lucic, like many Oilers, hasn’t been emotionally engaged in enough games this season. When he’s emotionally invested he plays better, and while I understand it is impossible to do that every game, the Oilers need him to be in a surly mood tonight.

8. Historically the Oilers have been terrible on the road against the Islanders, going 8-20-10. They did win there last season, 4-3 in a shootout, but eight victories in 38 games is not good. And it’s not like the Islanders have been a juggernaut since 1988. In fact, from 1988 to today the Islanders have registered the fewest wins of the 21 franchises in the league (in 1988) with 939. The Oilers have the second fewest victories at 966. Some teams simply don’t play well in certain cities and maybe the change to Brooklyn is what the Oilers need.

9. The Oilers drafted Jason Chimera in the fifth round, 121st overall, in 1997. He was in the organization for five years, with the last two in the NHL. At the 2004 draft, he was traded, along with a third round pick, to Arizona for a second and fourth round pick. He never played for Arizona due to the 2004/2005 lockout. He dressed in some preseason games in 2005, but on October 8th he was traded to Columbus, along with Cale Hulse and Michael Rupp, for Geoff Sanderson and Tim Jackman. Chimera scored 17 goals and 30 points his first season with the Blue Jackets and became a solid third line player for five years. In December 2009 he was traded to Washington for Chris Clark and Milan Jurcina. He scored 20 goals twice in six seasons with the Capitals before signing as a UFA with the Islanders last summer. He scored 20 goals in his first year with the Islanders, but is off to a slow start with no goals in 14 games this season. He will likely break out soon, and being a former Oilers I assume Oilersnation won’t be stunned if he scores his first of the season tonight.

10. I fully expect McDavid to have a great night. He will want to rebound after a below average game vs. Detroit. Three point night from McDavid wouldn’t surprise me at all.

11. The Oilers forwards have a collective 7.9 SH% through 13 games with 25 goals on 316 shots. Last year the forwards had an 11.3 SH% with 208 goals on 1829 shots. They are on pace to register 1,993 shots on goal this season. They are shooting more, but scoring way less. The bulk of their Oilers goals came from their top-six forwards last year as McDavid, Draisaitl, Maroon, Lucic, Eberle and RNH produced 147 of the 208 forward goals (70.6%). If you include Mark Letestu’s 16 goals, those seven forwards produced 78.3% of the Oilers goals (163 of 208). That group of seven averaged 1.98 goals/game last year.

Here is a quick comparison between the SH% of those forwards from last year to this year.

Player             2016/2017             2017/2018

McDavid            11.9%                       10.6%
Draisaitl             16.9%                       11.1%
Maroon             15.2%                       15.4%
Lucic                  13.1%                        8.0%
Letestu              13.3%                        8.7%
RNH                    9.0%                        21.4%

This group of six forwards have scored 22 goals in 13 games. That’s down a bit 1.69 goals/game from last year, but they have scored 88% of the forwards goals. We could argue it is 92% if you add the one Strome goal he scored while in the top six,

The Oilers depth scorers clearly haven’t produced, but the defence is scoring at a much lower rate as well.

The Oilers blueliners have four goals on 176 shots this year, 2.2%, which is well below last year’s rate where they had a 4.8 SH% with 35 goals on 718 shots.

Oscar Klefbom had 12 goals on 201 shots (6.0 SH%) last season, but only has one goal on 46 shots this year. Darnell Nurse had five goals on 85 shots (5.9 SH%) last year, but he has no goals on 35 shots this season. Nurse’s shots per game has increased to 2.69 from 1.93 last year, but he’s yet to be rewarded with more goals.

Defencemen shots on goal are often from farther away and less likely to result in a goal, and through 13 games the Oilers blueline is averaging almost five more shots per game than last year.

They have 13.5 shots/game this year compared to 8.75 last year.

The Oilers overall team SH% won’t increase until they are willing to pay the price around the crease. The defencemen are getting more shots on goal, but the Oilers haven’t had consistent traffic in front and they aren’t capitalizing on rebounds. I don’t think we can say the team SH% will automatically get close to last year’s level if the team isn’t willing to get dirty in the scoring areas around the net.