Game Day Quick Hits: Oilers at Canadiens

In today’s quick hits, we look ahead at tonight’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and the Montreal Canadiens.

1. The Canadiens were enjoying a hot streak after Carey Price returned, but have lost back-to-back games since winning five in a row. Price returned on Nov. 25 against the Buffalo Sabres and helped the Habs to a 3-0 shutout. The team went on to beat Columbus, Ottawa, and Detroit twice to pull themselves into a playoff spot. But since, they were dropped by St. Louis and Calgary. That five-game winning streak seemed since, but other than Columbus, Montreal was only beating bad teams.

2. The Canadiens are much like the Oilers of the Eastern Conference in that they’re underperforming expectations and underlying numbers. According to Corsica, the Habs have the sixth highest expected Goals For percentage (which uses shot numbers to determine how the team should be scoring at even strength with average percentages) in the league at 53.2, but their actual Goals For percentage is just 49.1, which ranks 20th. The Oilers have a 52.7 xGF%, which ranks seventh, but a 48.7 GF%, which ranks 21st. Again, these two teams are shockingly similar in terms of how their underlying numbers are superior to their actual results.

3. Surprisingly, keeping the puck out of the net has been an issue for the Canadiens this season. This wasn’t expected largely because Carey Price is their goalie, but also because the team has loaded up on tough, defensive defencemen like Shea Weber and Karl Alzner the past few years. That said, since coming off of the injured reserve, Price owns a .942 save percentage in seven games. Before that, he had an .877 save percentage in 11 games. Montreal currently ranks 25th in the league with 93 goals against, which is slightly better than Edmonton’s 96 goals against.

4. In an article by Jonathan Bernier in Le Journal de Montreal, former Habs defender Andrei Markov voiced his displeasure with the team’s general manager, Marc Bergevin. Apparently Montreal offered Markov, who was a member of the organization for 16 years, a couple of contracts, but there was barely any negotiation between the two sides. In the interview, Markov’s wife said in regards to Bergevin: “Don’t even talk to me about him It’s a very delicate subject for me. I have my opinion on it, but I’m better off keeping it to myself. The Canadiens were Andrei’s family and Montreal was his home. When people ask him where he’s from, he tells them he’s from Voskresensk (Russia) but his home is in Montreal.” This isn’t relevant to tonight’s game, but I find it to be another interesting parallel between these two teams who are going through major strife with their general manager right in the middle of it.

5. Jonathan Drouin will return to the lineup tonight after missing four games with a flu. He’s had an interesting season thus far, sitting in a tie for second on the team with 17 points. The Habs are adamant that Drouin is a centre and that Alex Galchenyuk is a winger, though the two played the opposite positions in junior. Drouin has produced offensively, but his lines have also been putrid in their own zone, as he owns a 41.9 Goals For percentage at even strength largely because of how many times he’s on the ice for a goal against. Again, I really find it bizarre that they play Galchenyuk and Drouin together, but not in their natural positions.

6. Special teams have been an issue for Montreal, but not the extent that they’ve been a disaster for Edmonton. The Habs rank in the bottom third in the league in both power play and penalty kill. Their power play is slightly better than Edmonton’s operating at a 17.5 per cent efficiency in comparison to the Oilers, who operate at a 16.7 per cent efficiency. Their penalty kill, though, is much better than Edmonton’s. Even though the Habs rank 22nd with a 78.8 per cent penalty kill, Edmonton is dead last in the league with a 72.3 per cent kill. No matter how mediocre another team’s power play is, Edmonton’s penalty kill hasn’t given them an advantage this season.

7. Connor McDavid is leading the charge for the Oilers with 33 points in 28 games. Despite the fact he’s been guttered by the flu this year, McDavid is still producing at nearly the same pace as he did in his 100-point, Most Valuable Player season. Beyond him, though? Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, and Milan Lucic have 20, 20, and 19 points, but are below a point-per-game.

8. Darnell Nurse is noticeably evolving into Edmonton’s No. 1 defenceman this season. Obviously part of this has to do with Andrej Sekera and Adam Larsson’s injuries, bur Nurse has logged at least 22 minutes in each of his last five games. He also has the best shot attempt differential among any Oilers defenceman this season.

9. A key to winning for the Oilers is scoring first. I guess that didn’t really help last game against the Flyers, but when the other team scores first, the Oilers are 5-12-1. I find that the team gets dejected quickly and it takes until there’s 10 minutes to go in the third before they wake up. When scoring first, Edmonton is 6-3-1. When leading after one period, the Oilers are 5-1, but when trailing after one period, they’re 2-8.

10. The scheduling decision of having a bunch of intra-conference games at the beginning of the season has really thrown things out of whack. The Habs have played 15 of 30 games against the Western Conference and have only won three of them. The Oilers have played 16 of 28 games against the East and have won just five of them.