Game Notes Oilers @ Canadiens: Race For First Place

The race is officially on. The Toronto Maple Leafs ( 47 points), Winnipeg Jets (46 points) and Edmonton Oilers (45 points) have six weeks to decide who wins the North division and avoids the other two teams in the opening round of the playoffs.

Toronto hasn’t won their division since 2000, when they finished first in the North East with 100 points.

Edmonton hasn’t finished first in their division since 1987 when they won the Smythe division and President’s Trophy (most points in NHL) with 106 points.

Winnipeg has never won their division.

This is the first, and likely only, time a team can claim they won the Canadian division. It matters, and these three teams have six weeks to decide who finishes first and likely faces the Montreal Canadiens in round one.

— Edmonton has 20 games remaining. They play  Montreal (6 times). Calgary and Vancouver (4), Winnipeg (3) and Ottawa (2).
Winnipeg also has 20 games left. They play Toronto (6), Ottawa (5), Montreal and Edmonton (3), Vancouver (2) and Calgary (1).
Toronto has 21 games remaining. They play Winnipeg and Montreal (6), Vancouver (4), Calgary (3) and Ottawa (2).

Edmonton has nine games against playoff teams and 11 against non-playoff teams.
Winnipeg has 12 against playoff teams and eight against the bottom three.
Toronto faces playoff teams 12 times and has nine against non-playoff teams.

Ottawa is not an easy out, so I’m not sure one team has a clear advantage, but Edmonton only has three games against the other top two teams, while they face each other six times. If Winnipeg and Toronto split those games in regulation that could be a big benefit to Edmonton.

— I believe finishing first in the North is important, mainly because that team likely faces a worn down Montreal squad. Starting tonight, Montreal plays 25 games in 43 nights. They have six sets of back-to-back games and in four of them they are playing a different team on the second night. They have 10 sets of playing three games in four nights. I’ve never seen a team have to play that many games in such a short period of time. They are currently two points ahead of Vancouver and Calgary, but they have six games in hand on both of them. Montreal would really have to struggle, or Vancouver or Calgary would have to get red hot, to knock the Habs out of the fourth playoff spot. I expect the Habs to make it, but how much gas will they have left when their playoffs start on May 13th to 14th?

— Montreal doesn’t have two consecutive days off the rest of this season. It will be difficult for them to have any real practice time. Meanwhile Edmonton has two days off in a row five times and they also have a four days off from April 22-25th. They will be much more rested and should have six solid practice days. Toronto has two days off twice and one set of three off days, while Winnipeg has one set of three days off in a row, and another three or four after their season is over while Edmonton, Montreal and Toronto play until May 11th. Edmonton has an advantage in practice time down the stretch. It will be up to them to take advantage of it.

— Tonight Montreal plays the first game in 10 days. Edmonton was quite rusty in their first period against Toronto after a week off, and Edmonton needs to jump on the Canadiens early tonight. Edmonton has the second best points% when scoring first (.882). They are 15-2 when they score first. Montreal has only won once when allowing the first goal. They are 1-5-5. Combine that with them being off for 10 days and the first goal could be extremely important tonight.

— The Oilers looked rusty, especially in their passing, and they practiced every day leading up to Saturday’s game. Montreal’s first practice was last night at 6:45 p.m. EST. Their facility was closed all week. Their players didn’t even skate until last night. No question they will be rusty, and likely out of game shape. Any suggestion that Montreal got off easy not playing last week is completely incorrect. They now have a brutal schedule and their entire team has to play catch up. If they don’t find their legs quickly, it might be the glimmer of hope Vancouver and Calgary need to believe they still have a shot at making the playoffs.

— Darnell Nurse continues to improve on his stellar season. Nurse is playing so well even his detractors are silent. He is at or near the top in many categories for defencemen.

1st in goals with 12.
1st in EV goals with 12.
1st in 5×5 goals with 10.
6th in points with 27.
1st in EV points with 23.
1st in 5×5 points with 19.
2nd in EV and 5×5 TOI/game.
4th in total TOI/game.
1st in 5×5 shots on goal with 80.
Tied for 1st at +16 at 5×5.
2nd in NHL in overall +/- at +22.

— What is most impressive about Nurse is how much he is playing. Edmonton doesn’t have a legit second pair left defender so Nurse is forced to play more. He is playing almost three minutes more/game than Victor Hedman and 1:30 more per game than Roman Josi and Drew Doughty and over four minutes game more than Dougie Hamilton. Only Thomas Chabot plays more than Nurse. And Nurse plays mainly against the best players. He has played over 78% of his ice time against elite (40.7%) and middle (37.7%) opponents according to PuckIQ. Compare that to Hedman who has only played just over 62% of his time against elite (18.7%) and middle (43.7%). People focus so much on who players play with, but who defenders play against is quite important.

— It is rare to see Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl be rather ineffective for a game. Last night they didn’t do much. Draisaitl really fought the puck and forced a lot of passes, but Edmonton still managed to win. This team is much deeper than in previous years, and after a weak game on Saturday, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ line was very good last night. His line, along with Jujhar Khaira’s line, were the two best by a large margin. Draisaitl has had many great nights, and he’s earned the right to not get piled on for a bad game. It is fair to acknowledge he struggled, but I don’t see a need to hammer on him about it. I’m curious how he responds tonight. Against a rusty Canadiens team the top line could do a lot of damage. Edmonton needs them to as the Canadiens are very solid at 5×5.

— Montreal is +20 at 5×5. They are second in the NHL allowing only 1.45 goals against/game at 5×5 and they are ninth scoring 2.09 goals/game. The Oilers are third in the NHL in 5×5 goals/game at 2.29, but they are 21st in 5×5 GA/game at 2.02. They are 15th since January 30th, so they are trending in the right direction allowing 1.91 5×5 GA/game over the past two months, but Montreal will be a good test for the Oilers at 5×5 and their big guns need to be firing tonight.

— Mikko Koskinen hasn’t played much since Mike Smith returned, but he’s played well. Since Mike Smith made his first start on February 8th he is 12-3-1 with a .919sv% and 2.41 GAA. Koskinen has made six starts and he’s won five of them. He has a .932Sv% and 2.20 GAA. Koskinen will play tonight and then either on Friday v. Calgary or Saturday in Vancouver. Then the Oilers have a really light schedule with only eight games between April 4th and 25th. I’d guess Tippett will want to keep both goalies fresh so I could see Smith starting five or an even split of four, but the challenge won’t be overusing a goalie in those three weeks, but rather making sure both are getting the right amount of playing time.