GDB 36.0: Work For A Win (5pm MT, SNW)

Photo credit:Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

3 years ago

Despite winning only two of their first eight games against Toronto, a regulation win tonight puts the Oilers only one point behind Toronto for first place in the North division. A win tonight likely won’t significantly alter their season, but it could give Edmonton a more positive outlook if they meet Toronto in the playoffs.

A victory, or a defeat, in late March likely won’t have much direct impact on a playoff game in late May or early June, but the mental part of the game is difficult to assess. You don’t want to enter a game feeling you just can’t beat a team. The Oilers have lost four straight against Toronto, and outside of just wanting a win, there is also the opportunity to finish in first place in the North.

Edmonton could leave Toronto one, two, four or five points back of the Maple Leafs depending if this game ends in regulation or requires overtime/shootout. Darnell Nurse wasn’t biting on if the Oilers need to win this game to feel good about themselves. “We feel confident against any team in the North,” said the defender who set a new career high with his 11th goal of the season on Saturday.

I believe Nurse when he says they are confident, but I also believe that teams encounter mental hurdles against certain teams. I think Toronto has one when they face Boston in the playoffs, and until they beat the Bruins in the postseason, those questions will remain. The Oilers are 3-10-1 vs. the Leafs since the start of the 2017/2018 season. It has not been a good matchup thus far, and if Edmonton wants to win tonight then their second, third and fourth lines need to play much better. They need a better work ethic overall if they expect to win.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ line wasn’t very crisp on Saturday. They were outshot, outchanced and outscored. A neutral zone turnover by Dominik Kahun led to Toronto’s second goal which started the Leafs comeback. They didn’t generate much offensively at all, and because of that Dave Tippett has changed his bottom three lines tonight.

LINEUPS…

Oilers

Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi
Turris – RNH – Yamamoto
Ennis– Haas – Kassian
Shore – Khaira – Archibald

Nurse – Barrie
Lagesson – Larsson
Russell – Bear

Smith

The bottom three lines are different. @Kyle Turris and @Tyler Ennis draw in for @Dominik Kahun and @Alex Chiasson, while @Josh Archibald moves from the third line LW to the fourth line RW. He’s had good success with Khaira, and Tippett is hoping that line brings more speed and energy tonight.

Kyle Turris struggled to start the season playing centre. He was moved to the wing and his last three games were his best of the season, but then he was placed in COVID protocol and couldn’t skate for a week. He has spent the past week getting his legs back and Tippett is hoping Turris can continue to make plays from the wing, but has paired him with more skilled players hoping they can finish some of the nice passes Turris made. We’ll see how it works, but Turris has a better chance of helping this team in an offensive role than he does in a checking role, in my eyes.

Turris and Ennis bring more speed than Kahun and Chiasson, and Edmonton needs to be quicker tonight if they want to generate more chances in their bottom nine.

Ultimately, I think Edmonton is better off with Draisaitl and McDavid on separate lines, but I sense Tippett is challenging his bottom three lines to play much better tonight. Long term, I expect McDavid and Draisaitl to centre their own lines, and when they are back together, one of them should have RNH as a winger and the other should have Puljujarvi. Puljuarvi has been quite effective at 5×5. He still needs some polish making plays, but his consistent work ethic, combined with his size and speed makes him hard to handle. I’d argue he is more effective at 5×5 right now than RNH.

I’m not too concerned about Tippett loading up his first line tonight. I sense it is a short-term decision.

Leafs

Hyman – Matthews – Marner
Nylander – Tavares – Galchenyuk
Mikheyev – Engvall – Simmonds
Thornton – Kerfoot – Spezza

Rielly – Brodie
Muzzin – Holl
Dermott – Bogosian

Hutchinson

Michael Hutchinson gets the start. He’s only played a total of 6:13 since March 4th. He started against Ottawa on March 14th, but got pulled after allowing two goals on three shots. In his other five starts he posted a .933sv%, including a 31-save shutout against the Oilers on March 1st. But he’s only faced three shots since March 4th. Edmonton needs to create some quality chances early and see if he is up to the challenge.

Edmonton needs to do a better job of putting Toronto in bad positions defensively and force them to take penalties. In eight games the Oilers have had 2.38 powerplays per game. In the last four losses to the Buds, Edmonton has only had five powerplays, and four came in one game. In their 27 games against the rest of the North, Edmonton is averaging 4.14 PP/game. They haven’t forced Toronto into enough bad spots defensively. Toronto is 19th on the PK and a few more powerplays will a great way to bolster the Oilers offence. The Leafs don’t take a lot of penalties though. They are seventh in the NHL with 2.82 penalty kills/game, while the Oilers are 10th at 2.91. Neither team takes a lot of penalties, but Edmonton needs to find a way to draw more tonight.

Leafs putting Hyman with Matthews and Marner in hopes to matchup better against the McDavid line.

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…

From The Leafsnation.ca:

Hutch will be in net for the Leafs tonight, as Campbell wasn’t feeling great coming off Saturday’s game, and the team is managing his workload, per Keefe. In his last game against the Oilers, Hutch recorded a shutout. However, in his last start for the Leafs (against Ottawa), he was pulled early in the first period. The thing with Hutch, as Jon and I mentioned on the Channel 6ix pod today, is that you never know which version of him you’re getting. He could record a shutout against Connor McDavid’s team, or he could get pulled against the Senators. We’ll see which version we get tonight! The Oilers are likely to give Mike Smith the start again, as he looked solid in net on Saturday for the majority of the game. While the Leafs managed to sneak out the win against him, he kept them at bay for much of the game. He’s also having an overall strong showing this season, with an 11-3-1 record and a .918 save percentage. The Leafs will have to work a bit harder tonight if they want to both keep the puck away from Hutch, and hit the net more often.

TONIGHT…

Photoshop: Tom Kostiuk

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers score first and get to Hutchinson and this time they don’t blow the lead. Edmonton wins 4-3.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid and Draisaitl each pick up two points and Matthews scores a goal.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: @Ethan Bear scores his first goal of the season and his first goal in 41 games. He only has six assists in his last 40 games, and his goal gives him a much needed boost of offensive confidence.

Recently by Jason Gregor:

Gameday Previews

News