Game Notes Jets @ Oilers: Jockeying for Home Ice Advantage

Even with no fans in the stands in the North division, home ice advantage in the playoffs is still something teams will want. Even though the Edmonton Oilers have been a better road team (9-5) than at home (10-8) thus far, they still want the advantage of having last change in the playoffs.

Tonight presents two opportunities: improve their home record and defeat the Winnipeg Jets — the team they are battling for second spot in the division.

— Suddenly the North division is really tight at the top of the standings. Two weeks ago, after the Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Oilers three times in five days, they had a 10-point lead on the Oilers and they were nine points up on the Winnipeg Jets. Some wanted to hand the Maple Leafs the division crown. Toronto could still win the division, but whoever wins tonight’s game between the Oilers and Jets will tie the Maple Leafs with 40 points.

— After tonight, Toronto and Winnipeg will have three games in hand on the Oilers, so even if the Oilers win they will have a lower points%. But games in hand are only beneficial if you win them. Edmonton and Winnipeg both have a chance to sweep this two-game series, and give themselves a boost in the standings. Both teams played (and won) last night, so neither team will have a rest advantage tonight.

— Both will play their backup goalies. @Laurent Brossoit will make his seventh start of the season. He has been excellent in limited duty for the Jets. He is 5-1 in his six starts and he’s stopped 181 of 194 shots he’s faced (.932sv%). His only loss came at the hands of the Oilers, when Leon Draisaitl scored with one second in regulation time on January 24th.

@Mikko Koskinen has been much better since @Mike Smith returned to the lineup. Koskinen plays better when he has more time to practice. In his five starts since Smith arrived Koskinen is 3-2. He’s posted sv% in those games of .952, .977, .700, .929 and .929. The only concern I have with Koskinen is his tendency to allow a weak goal. Clear Sight Analytics has him listed as allowing the most “soft” goals the past two seasons. But when focused, he gives the Oilers a good chance to win.

— @Tyson Barrie leads NHL defencemen with 28 points. Edmonton hasn’t had an offensively productive D-man like this since Chris Pronger produced 56 points in 82 games in 2006. Pronger only had 14 EV points that season. Barrie has 14 right now. I don’t recall people complaining about Pronger’s powerplay production (42 points) back then. I’m amazed at how some want to try and downplay Barrie’s impact on the team. He’s had a massive impact. Goals have the biggest impact in the outcome of games, and Barrie’s GF-GA at 5×5 in the past 23 games is +10. Only Leon Draisaitl is better. Barrie has 25 points in the past 23 games. That is the ninth most points in the entire NHL, and only Connor McDavid (42) and Draisaitl (36) have more on the Oilers.

— Barrie has become one of the best free agent signings of the season. He is a great value at $3.75m. There is no rational counterpoint to that statement. What he signs for in free agency, or re-signs with in Edmonton, is a completely different conversation. This contract has been a home run for the Oilers.

— Enjoy the moment. Focus on right now. The end of the season is the time to discuss whether re-signing Barrie makes sense. I see many saying, “But he isn’t great defensively.” I haven’t seen anyone write he is. He is elite offensively, and he hasn’t been a drain defensively at all since he found his game in late January. He is playing really good hockey right now and having a significant positive impact on the Oilers. Suggestions that @Ethan Bear and @Evan Bouchard could mirror what he is doing are incorrect. In the case of Bear, he doesn’t skate like Barrie and doesn’t transport the puck up ice like him, and stating Bouchard could be just as good on the powerplay is based on a hypothetical best-case scenario. Bouchard today is not ready to handle top pairing minutes, and Bear in the top pair isn’t as productive, so trading Barrie now would be weakening your team. Why would you even consider that now?

— @Darnell Nurse leads NHL defenders in EV points (18) EV goals (9), and he’s tied for the lead in 5×5 points (15) and leads in 5×5 goals (8). He’s been very productive, but also he’s improved his defensive zone play. He is on the ice for more goals against, because he has played 100 more minutes (5×5) than every D-man in the NHL except six. He is averaging over two minutes/game more than every D-man in the NHL except 14. He has been asked to play a lot, and he’s handled it quite well. Edmonton could use a second pair LD next season who can eat a few more minutes, but Nurse is in incredible shape and has the skating ability and body size to handle big minutes.

— The Jets also have a productive D-man in @Neal Pionk. He is tied for seventh in scoring by D-men with 23 points. He’s skilled, poised, moves the puck well and despite not being that big, he is quite physical. He and McDavid had a few good battles the last time they played and I expect we will see that matchup a lot tonight as well.

— I think Winnipeg has the best goal-scoring winger duo in the NHL in @Nikolaj Ehlers and @Kyle Connor. It is still mind-blowing that the Oilers felt Griffin Reinhart would be better than Matt Barzal, Thomas Chabot and Kyle Connor…who went 16th, 17th and 18th in the 2015 draft when Edmonton acquired Reinhart for the 16th pick. Easily the worst trade in Oilers history. But I digress. Ehlers and Connor are dynamic wingers with speed, vision and a quick release. They are exciting to watch.

— There will be a lot of offence on the ice tonight. These teams boast eight of the top-39 scorers in the NHL. McDavid (first, 56 points), Draisaitl (second, 49 pts), Mark Schiefele (fifth, 37 pts), Ehlers (13th, 31 pts), Connor (16th, 29 pts), Barrie (22nd, 28 pts), Blake Wheeler (38th, 26 pts) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (39th, 25 pts). Add in Pionk (63rd, 23 pts) and Nurse (66th, 22 pts) and the potential for a lot of goals and scoring chances is quite high. This could be a very entertaining game.

— The first four games have been close. Edmonton won the first meeting on January 24th 4-3 when Draisaitl scored with one second remaining. Two night later the Jets rebounded with a 6-4 victory when they scored four goals in the third period, including Andrew Copp’s empty net goal. Winnipeg won a high-scoring affair 6-5 in Edmonton on February 15th, and two nights later the Oilers rebounded with a 3-2 victory when Jesse Puljujarvi and Leon Draisaitl scored 21 seconds apart in the first 4:06 of the game. All four games have been one-goal games and come down to the wire.

Both teams have averaged four goals/game. Edmonton is four for 13 on the PP, while Winnipeg has scored four goals on 14 chances. Edmonton has outshot the Jets 139-130, but they outshot the Jets 45-24 in game three but lost 6-5. Connor Hellebuyck was excellent that game. The Jets outshot the Oilers by six and five shots in games two and four and the shots were even at 38 in the opening game. The series has been quite even to this point.